Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the first ten days of 2025, Shanghai SSE Composite declined 5.5% and broke the key 3,200 support level. The main reason for the weakness is exchange rate;</li>
<li>From November 5th when Trump won election, Renminbi exchange rate to US dollar has declined 3.3% and broke key support levels;</li>
<li>The impact has started to shown in China's residential property market. After a strong opening, new home sales quickly petered out. Whether rebound in the next few days is critical.</li>
</ul>


In the first ten days of 2025, Shanghai SSE Composite declined 5.5% and broke the key 3,200 support level. The main reason for the weakness is exchange rate;
From November 5th when Trump won election, Renminbi exchange rate to US dollar has declined 3.3% and broke key support levels;
The impact has started to shown in China's residential property market. After a strong opening, new home sales quickly petered out. Whether rebound in the next few days is critical.


What Has Happened in the First Ten Days of 2025?

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>New and renewed trade-in subsidies on smart phone, tablet and wearables can add low to high single digit growth to major e-commerce platforms. Raising basic pension invites more questions;</li>
<li>Meituan's latest anti-fatigue and algorithm change is a way to deflect criticism of its not paying social security for its riders;</li>
<li>Several games on NetEase received positive feedbacks, paving way for a rebounding 2025.</li>
</ul>


New and renewed trade-in subsidies on smart phone, tablet and wearables can add low to high single digit growth to major e-commerce platforms. Raising basic pension invites more questions;
Meituan's latest anti-fatigue and algorithm change is a way to deflect criticism of its not paying social security for its riders;
Several games on NetEase received positive feedbacks, paving way for a rebounding 2025.


China Internet Weekly Wrap (1/2025): JD, BABA, PDD, SE, CPNG, Meituan, NTES

<ul>
<li>Inclusion of smartphone/tablet/smartwatch to trade-in subsidy will drive high single digit incremental growth for JD and Xiaomi, low single digit incremental growth for Alibaba in 2025;</li>
<li>New Year's Day transportation volume down, hotel consumption up, constituting a decent performance for a shorter holiday vs. last year. This bodes well for tourism for Chinese New Year; </li>
<li>China stepped up its signaling effort to Trump Administration that trade war measures will be retaliated. This week China added LFP battery technology to its own entity list.</li>
</ul>


Inclusion of smartphone/tablet/smartwatch to trade-in subsidy will drive high single digit incremental growth for JD and Xiaomi, low single digit incremental growth for Alibaba in 2025;
New Year's Day transportation volume down, hotel consumption up, constituting a decent performance for a shorter holiday vs. last year. This bodes well for tourism for Chinese New Year; 
China stepped up its signaling effort to Trump Administration that trade war measures will be retaliated. This week China added LFP battery technology to its own entity list.


China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (1/2025): Xiaomi, JD, BABA, TRIP, ATAT, CATL, BYD, BEKE, Luckin, BZ

<ul>
<li>
Online Travel: Korea and Japan eased tourist visa for Chinese. TRIP.com saw traffic gains in C4Q24;</li>
<li>
Internet Platform: Scalping on government consumption vouchers in Shanghai will shift future programs to major Internet platforms;</li>
<li>
Online game: December game code approval was both big and commercial. NetEase and Tencent games were included.</li>
</ul>



Online Travel: Korea and Japan eased tourist visa for Chinese. TRIP.com saw traffic gains in C4Q24;

Internet Platform: Scalping on government consumption vouchers in Shanghai will shift future programs to major Internet platforms;

Online game: December game code approval was both big and commercial. NetEase and Tencent games were included.


China Internet Weekly Wrap (52/​2024): Visa Free Entry, Social Gift Sending & E-Commerce Tax

<ul>
<li>TCOM US/ ATAT US: China Extends Transit Visa-Free Policy to 240 Hours(+/+)</li>
<li>1024 HK: Kuaishou Introduces Subscription Service for Micro Drama Business (+)</li>
<li>700 HK/1439927D CH/BIDU US: Apple Negotiates with Tencent and ByteDance to Launch AI Features in China (+/+/-)</li>
</ul>


TCOM US/ ATAT US: China Extends Transit Visa-Free Policy to 240 Hours(+/+)
1024 HK: Kuaishou Introduces Subscription Service for Micro Drama Business (+)
700 HK/1439927D CH/BIDU US: Apple Negotiates with Tencent and ByteDance to Launch AI Features in China (+/+/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:TCOM US/ ATAT US/1024 HK/700 HK/1439927D CH /BIDU/3690 HK/JD/BABA/PDD

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (ADR) (JD US)

What Has Happened in the First Ten Days of 2025?

Shanghai stock market weakens due to exchange rate, impacting China's property market. Rebound or not in new home sales is crucial in the next few...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Internet Weekly Wrap (1/2025): JD, BABA, PDD, SE, CPNG, Meituan, NTES

Trade-in subsidies on smartphones can boost e-commerce growth, Meituan deflects criticism with anti-fatigue measures, NetEase games receive...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (1/2025): Xiaomi, JD, BABA, TRIP, ATAT, CATL, BYD, BEKE, Luckin, BZ

Inclusion of smartphones in trade-in subsidy boosts growth for JD and Xiaomi, while China signals retaliation in trade war with US. Good signs for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:TCOM US/ ATAT US/1024 HK/700 HK/1439927D CH /BIDU/3690 HK/JD/BABA/PDD

China expands visa-free transit policy, Kuaishou offers subscription service for micro dramas, Apple in talks with Tencent and ByteDance for AI...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What Has Happened in the First Ten Days of 2025?

​Shanghai stock market weakens due to exchange rate, impacting China's property market. Rebound or not in new home sales is crucial in the next few...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Internet Weekly Wrap (1/2025): JD, BABA, PDD, SE, CPNG, Meituan, NTES

​Trade-in subsidies on smartphones can boost e-commerce growth, Meituan deflects criticism with anti-fatigue measures, NetEase games receive...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (1/2025): Xiaomi, JD, BABA, TRIP, ATAT, CATL, BYD, BEKE, Luckin, BZ

​Inclusion of smartphones in trade-in subsidy boosts growth for JD and Xiaomi, while China signals retaliation in trade war with US. Good signs for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Internet Weekly Wrap (52/​2024): Visa Free Entry, Social Gift Sending & E-Commerce Tax

​Korea and Japan ease tourist visa for Chinese, Shanghai government vouchers likely shift to major Internet platforms; NetEase and Tencent games...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:TCOM US/ ATAT US/1024 HK/700 HK/1439927D CH /BIDU/3690 HK/JD/BABA/PDD

​China expands visa-free transit policy, Kuaishou offers subscription service for micro dramas, Apple in talks with Tencent and ByteDance for AI...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Shanghai stock market weakens due to exchange rate, impacting China's property market. Rebound or not in new home sales is crucial in the next few...

Trade-in subsidies on smartphones can boost e-commerce growth, Meituan deflects criticism with anti-fatigue measures, NetEase games receive...

Inclusion of smartphones in trade-in subsidy boosts growth for JD and Xiaomi, while China signals retaliation in trade war with US. Good signs for...

China Internet Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Visa Free Entry, Social Gift Sending & E-Commerce Tax

Korea and Japan ease tourist visa for Chinese, Shanghai government vouchers likely shift to major Internet platforms; NetEase and Tencent games...

China expands visa-free transit policy, Kuaishou offers subscription service for micro dramas, Apple in talks with Tencent and ByteDance for AI...