Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We continue to be led down the garden path - no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> in March means we remain at 83 members.</li>
<li>Despite having an opportunity to add stocks to the index without increasing turnover, the index committee have done nothing. Which begs the question - what exactly are they waiting for?</li>
<li>Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.8% and the resulting round-trip trade is HK$16.7bn (US$2.15bn).</li>
</ul>


We continue to be led down the garden path - no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in March means we remain at 83 members.
Despite having an opportunity to add stocks to the index without increasing turnover, the index committee have done nothing. Which begs the question - what exactly are they waiting for?
Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.8% and the resulting round-trip trade is HK$16.7bn (US$2.15bn).


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Does Anyone Know What the Index Committee Is Thinking?

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe in 2025 HK/China shall outperform EM. While the undervalued and under-owned characteristic of the China market is well-known, monetizability of China’s technological capabilities has become apparent only recently.</li>
<li>Policy stimuli during the upcoming NPC could catalyze consumer sentiment and market performance. China’s structural hurdles, Debt, Demographics and Deflation, remain. But correct stock and sector selection can generate alpha.</li>
<li>We prefer the internet platforms, consumer discretionary and high dividend yield, the latter largely SOEs. Our “China Twelve” are mostly reasonably valued (low teen PE), with double digit EPS growth.</li>
</ul>


We believe in 2025 HK/China shall outperform EM. While the undervalued and under-owned characteristic of the China market is well-known, monetizability of China’s technological capabilities has become apparent only recently.
Policy stimuli during the upcoming NPC could catalyze consumer sentiment and market performance. China’s structural hurdles, Debt, Demographics and Deflation, remain. But correct stock and sector selection can generate alpha.
We prefer the internet platforms, consumer discretionary and high dividend yield, the latter largely SOEs. Our “China Twelve” are mostly reasonably valued (low teen PE), with double digit EPS growth.


Asian Equities: It's China's Year - Our "China Twelve" In the Year of the Snake

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is increased collateral risk for banks in Hong Kong and China considering ongoing stresses in real estate in both regions</li>
<li>China Vanke just issued a Profit Alert indicating a loss during FY24 compared with a profit in preceding year</li>
<li>Land mark downs are to blame and worsening profit margins and additional provisions for impairments</li>
</ul>


There is increased collateral risk for banks in Hong Kong and China considering ongoing stresses in real estate in both regions
China Vanke just issued a Profit Alert indicating a loss during FY24 compared with a profit in preceding year
Land mark downs are to blame and worsening profit margins and additional provisions for impairments


HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and outflows from Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and outflows from Meituan.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting &gt; 10% weekly gains.</li>
<li>Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.</li>
<li>China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising. </li>
</ul>


Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting &gt; 10% weekly gains.
Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.
China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising. 


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Construction Bank H (939 HK)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Does Anyone Know What the Index Committee Is Thinking?

Another opportunity missed to increase the number of index constituents and decrease the Healthcare underweight with minimal change to index...

Brian Freitas

Asian Equities: It's China's Year - Our "China Twelve" In the Year of the Snake

In 25 HK/China should outperform. Monetization of China's tech capability, policy stimulus during NPC are catalysts. Structural issues- Debt,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

The new profit alert from China Vanke highlights ongoing risks to banks, as land is their primary collateral. Real estate stresses are also evident...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for January and highlighted flows for Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and Meituan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

Strong gains in information technology stocks AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l, and Byd Elec, but rally not as widespread as last week.

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Does Anyone Know What the Index Committee Is Thinking?

Another opportunity missed to increase the number of index constituents and decrease the Healthcare underweight with minimal change to index...

Brian Freitas

Asian Equities: It's China's Year - Our "China Twelve" In the Year of the Snake

​In 25 HK/China should outperform. Monetization of China's tech capability, policy stimulus during NPC are catalysts. Structural issues- Debt,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

The new profit alert from China Vanke highlights ongoing risks to banks, as land is their primary collateral. Real estate stresses are also evident...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for January and highlighted flows for Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and Meituan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

​Strong gains in information technology stocks AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l, and Byd Elec, but rally not as widespread as last week.

John Ley

In 25 HK/China should outperform. Monetization of China's tech capability, policy stimulus during NPC are catalysts. Structural issues- Debt,...

Strong gains in information technology stocks AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l, and Byd Elec, but rally not as widespread as last week.