Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.</p>

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Melco International Development / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a>'s underperformance against 56.8% held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> sees an all-time low NAV discount and implied stub; and the simple ratio (Melco/MLCO) is around its lowest level since Melco took majority control in the Macau gaming play.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Melco and xx are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...




Melco International Development (200 HK)'s underperformance against 56.8% held Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) sees an all-time low NAV discount and implied stub; and the simple ratio (Melco/MLCO) is around its lowest level since Melco took majority control in the Macau gaming play.




Preceding my comments on Melco and xx are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.

These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.

As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: Melco's All-Time Low As Macau Stocks Lag Las Vegas Plays

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p><br/> In this month's “In-Focus”, we update our study of agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present.<br/><br/> The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. <br/></p>

  In this month's “In-Focus”, we update our study of agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Asian HY Ratings Transition Study - Lucror Analytics

<p><br/> The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.<br/></p>

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - February 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

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<li>We have been bullish on Wynn Macau Ltd long term and remain so. But short term we believe several pillars of our bull scenario have shown cracks that have shown up in CNY results.</li>
<li>VIP and premium mass player segments expected to begin returning in meaningful numbers first have not yet materialized.</li>
<li>We see a 4-month time window in which a short play might look attractive for those with the risk profile for a round trip play before an expected upside later this year.</li>
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We have been bullish on Wynn Macau Ltd long term and remain so. But short term we believe several pillars of our bull scenario have shown cracks that have shown up in CNY results.
VIP and premium mass player segments expected to begin returning in meaningful numbers first have not yet materialized.
We see a 4-month time window in which a short play might look attractive for those with the risk profile for a round trip play before an expected upside later this year.


Wynn Macau Ltd: A Short Play, Short Term, as CNY Results Disappoint

Hong Kong

Wynn Macau, Limited owns and operates Wynn Macau, a destination casino resort currently featuring hotel rooms and suites, a casino, casual and fine dining restaurants, retail space and leisure amenities.

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Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research

StubWorld: Melco's All-Time Low As Macau Stocks Lag Las Vegas Plays

Melco is a set-up here - go Long Melco and Short MLCO. Even taking the view that sentiment/growth for casino stocks is better in the US than in...

David Blennerhassett

Asia HY Monthly - Asian HY Ratings Transition Study - Lucror Analytics

In this month's “In-Focus”, we update our study of agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - February 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Wynn Macau Ltd: A Short Play, Short Term, as CNY Results Disappoint

Short term disappointment with Chinese New Year arrivals suggest recovery is further away than anticipated and provides an opportunistic short play.

Howard J Klein

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