IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/calb-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35985:1" rel="noopener">CALB (CALBLZ CH)</a>, a leading EV battery manufacturer, is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion through an HKEx IPO, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/calb-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:80243" rel="noopener">CALB IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  </li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on its small scale, low profitability and high FCF burn compared to listed peers.   </li>
</ul>



CALB (CALBLZ CH), a leading EV battery manufacturer, is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion through an HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
In CALB IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
The key elements of the bear case rest on its small scale, low profitability and high FCF burn compared to listed peers.   


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/calb-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35985:1" rel="noopener">CALB (CALBLZ CH)</a>, a leading EV battery manufacturer, is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion through an HKEx IPO, according to press reports.</li>
<li>According to Frost &amp; Sullivan, in terms of installed capacity in 2021, CALB ranked seventh globally among EV battery companies with a 3.2% market share.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on a large and growing market, rising market share, explosive top-line growth and ambitious capacity expansion plans.</li>
</ul>



CALB (CALBLZ CH), a leading EV battery manufacturer, is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion through an HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
According to Frost &amp; Sullivan, in terms of installed capacity in 2021, CALB ranked seventh globally among EV battery companies with a 3.2% market share.
The key elements of the bull case rest on a large and growing market, rising market share, explosive top-line growth and ambitious capacity expansion plans.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is likely to have a bifurcated impact on key Korean companies including Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS) and Hyundai Motor (005380 KS).</li>
<li>IRA is likely to have a positive impact on Hanwha Solutions, CS Wind, LG Energy Solution, and Samsung SDI and negative impact on Hyundai Motor Group.</li>
<li>The impact of the IRA could last for a few more trading days although it is difficult to tell exactly how long the bifurcated impact by the IRA will last.</li>
</ul>


The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is likely to have a bifurcated impact on key Korean companies including Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS) and Hyundai Motor (005380 KS).
IRA is likely to have a positive impact on Hanwha Solutions, CS Wind, LG Energy Solution, and Samsung SDI and negative impact on Hyundai Motor Group.
The impact of the IRA could last for a few more trading days although it is difficult to tell exactly how long the bifurcated impact by the IRA will last.


US Inflation Reduction Act: Bifurcated Impact on Korean Chaebols (Hyundai, LG, Hanwha, SK & Samsung)

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I recommend focusing on the ceiling regression play. In this regard, SK Innovation has the most notable regression spread, and we should use Samsung SDI as a hedge against it.</li>
<li>As for constituent change, SungEel HiTech is firmly positioned with a market cap of ₩1.34T and a float rate of 50%. And it belongs to the Waste batteries keyword.</li>
<li>But, it is unclear whether SungEel will be in the top 25 in scoring. We should patiently wait until confirmation as it's still a worthy candidate requiring our attention.</li>
</ul>


I recommend focusing on the ceiling regression play. In this regard, SK Innovation has the most notable regression spread, and we should use Samsung SDI as a hedge against it.
As for constituent change, SungEel HiTech is firmly positioned with a market cap of ₩1.34T and a float rate of 50%. And it belongs to the Waste batteries keyword.
But, it is unclear whether SungEel will be in the top 25 in scoring. We should patiently wait until confirmation as it's still a worthy candidate requiring our attention.


KODEX FnGuide Battery ETF Rebalancing Checkup

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Over the past decade, Cyclical sectors have traded places with Sensitive sectors as the largest allocation among active Asia Ex-Japan investors. </li>
<li>The last cycle started in early 2019 and saw Sensitive overtake Cyclicals and move to a key overweight, but this peaked in mid-2021 and has started to reverse.</li>
<li>The major rotation on the year so far has been a scaling back of Technology and Communication Services allocations in favour of Financials and Consumer Discretionary/Staples</li>
</ul>


Over the past decade, Cyclical sectors have traded places with Sensitive sectors as the largest allocation among active Asia Ex-Japan investors. 
The last cycle started in early 2019 and saw Sensitive overtake Cyclicals and move to a key overweight, but this peaked in mid-2021 and has started to reverse.
The major rotation on the year so far has been a scaling back of Technology and Communication Services allocations in favour of Financials and Consumer Discretionary/Staples


Asia Ex-Japan:  Tech to Financials Rotation

South Korea

Samsung SDI Co., Ltd. specializes in developing Lithium Ion Battery (LIB) technology.  The Company also manufactures cathode ray tubes (CRTs) for televisions and computer monitors.  Samsung SDI also produces liquid crystal display (LCD) components and rechargeable batteries for cellular phones , personal digital assistants (PDAs), Energy Storage Systems and solar panels.

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Samsung SDI (006400 KS)

CALB IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on its small scale, low profitability and high FCF burn compared to listed peers.

Arun George

CALB IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on a large and growing market, rising market share, explosive top-line growth and ambitious capacity...

Arun George

US Inflation Reduction Act: Bifurcated Impact on Korean Chaebols (Hyundai, LG, Hanwha, SK & Samsung)

The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is likely to have a bifurcated impact on key Korean companies including Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS) and...

Douglas Kim

KODEX FnGuide Battery ETF Rebalancing Checkup

This post previews the KODEX FnGuide Secondary Battery ETF rebalancing in September. It is Korea's largest-AUM local battery ETF.

Sanghyun Park

Asia Ex-Japan: Tech to Financials Rotation

Asia Ex-Japan funds are in the midst of a major rotation out of Technology and Communication Services stocks and in to Financials and Consumer...

Steven Holden

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