Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

China Petroleum & Chemical / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.</li>
<li>We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.</li>
<li>We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.
We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.
We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.


False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance should see the slow crawl toward 80 index members continue. We should get up to 68-70 members in March. Reaching 80 by June is unlikely.</li>
<li>High probability inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Currently, index turnover due to capping/float changes is low which will allow more stocks to be added to the index. Increase in the turnover will result in fewer changes.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance should see the slow crawl toward 80 index members continue. We should get up to 68-70 members in March. Reaching 80 by June is unlikely.
High probability inclusions are Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Smoore International (6969 HK), Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), JD Health (6618 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK).
Currently, index turnover due to capping/float changes is low which will allow more stocks to be added to the index. Increase in the turnover will result in fewer changes.


HSI Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): The Slow Crawl Continues

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, given the generally ignored continued credit deterioration; </li>
<li>Results were heavily reliant on a negative 10.0% tax rate for 4Q21, which goes away in 2022; and </li>
<li>BNI recently announced a "me too" deal to acquire a 63.9% stake in Bank Mayora at 2x book, at a time when BNI’s own house is a dumpster fire. </li>
</ul>


BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, given the generally ignored continued credit deterioration; 
Results were heavily reliant on a negative 10.0% tax rate for 4Q21, which goes away in 2022; and 
BNI recently announced a "me too" deal to acquire a 63.9% stake in Bank Mayora at 2x book, at a time when BNI’s own house is a dumpster fire. 


Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 14. </li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight the short interest increases for HSBC and Wuxi Biologics in the latest short report.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 14. 
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight the short interest increases for HSBC and Wuxi Biologics in the latest short report.


<ul>
<li>Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. </li>
<li>These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.</li>
<li>Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.</li>
</ul>


Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. 
These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.
Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.


Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global sovereign bond yields remain on an upward trajectory, with 10-year yields hitting multi-year highs this week in many countries; we expect...

Vermilion Research

HSI Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): The Slow Crawl Continues

We are at 64 index members currently & are unlikely to reach the target of 80 members by the June rebal. We highlight 10 stocks that could be added...

Brian Freitas

Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

BANK NEGARA INDONESIA: BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, and heavily dependent on a negative 10.0% tax rate. BNI recently announced deal comes...

Thomas J. Monaco

HK Short Interest: HSBC, Wuxi Biologics

We highlight the week on week short interest increases for HSBC (5 HK) and Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) in the latest Hong Kong SFC aggregate short...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a...

Vermilion Research

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