Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A news report has indicated that SEBI is looking to tighten criteria used for inclusion and continued availability of stocks in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.</li>
<li>Our analysis shows 30 stocks could be deleted from the F&amp;O segment while another 12 are close to deletion zone. If applied objectively, 22 stocks could be added to F&amp;O.</li>
<li>Deletion from the F&amp;O segment could see two stocks dropped from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> while inclusion in F&amp;O could see two stocks added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


A news report has indicated that SEBI is looking to tighten criteria used for inclusion and continued availability of stocks in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.
Our analysis shows 30 stocks could be deleted from the F&amp;O segment while another 12 are close to deletion zone. If applied objectively, 22 stocks could be added to F&amp;O.
Deletion from the F&amp;O segment could see two stocks dropped from the Nifty Next 50 Index while inclusion in F&amp;O could see two stocks added to the NIFTY Index.


Impact of Potential Changes to India F&O Eligibility Criteria

China Petroleum & Chemical / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.</li>
<li>We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.</li>
<li>We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.
We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.
We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.


False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Shareholder activism is on the rise in India. Institutional shareholders are making their vote count. Proxy advisor firms are also playing a role in guiding institutions to leverage their voting rights prudently. Over the past few months, we saw several instances of activism, mostly through adverse voting and complaining on public forums like earnings call. In a couple of cases, large shareholders (&gt;10% ownership) have also used their rights under Companies Act to call an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) to push for change of board and management.
In our detailed insight below, we discuss many such instances that transpired over the past few months. We also discuss our key takeaways for the Indian markets from this uprising activism.

Shareholder activism is on the rise in India. Institutional shareholders are making their vote count. Proxy advisor firms are also playing a role in guiding institutions to leverage their voting rights prudently. Over the past few months, we saw several instances of activism, mostly through adverse voting and complaining on public forums like earnings call. In a couple of cases, large shareholders (&gt;10% ownership) have also used their rights under Companies Act to call an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) to push for change of board and management.
In our detailed insight below, we discuss many such instances that transpired over the past few months. We also discuss our key takeaways for the Indian markets from this uprising activism.

The Rise of Shareholder Activism in India

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:518:1" rel="noopener">IDFC Ltd (IDFC IN)</a> ’s board of directors’ decision to <a href="https://www.idfc.com/pdf/IDFCLettertoSEOutcome25052021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reclassify</a> Vinod Rai, hitherto independent director, as a non-independent non-executive director provides a backdoor entry for all those independent directors whom founders/promoters and executive management want to retain after the mandated two consecutive terms. In the critical financial sector there is a reason why regulators stipulate maximum continuous tenures for auditors and independent directors. The purpose is to prevent excessive proximity to the promoters/executive management. It is surprising that not only does the IDFC board fail to comprehend this basic principle, but that Vinod Rai himself is willing to compromise his “independence” and stature to continue on the IDFC board on such terms.It is equally surprising that the IDFC, which in its FY2021 annual report describes itself as being “renowned for exemplary governance”, declined to inform the stock exchanges of Vinod Rai’s resignation, and failed to upload his resignation letter on the grounds that this stipulation would be effective from January 1, 2022. Pertinently, when two of Zee Entertainment’s directors resigned on September 13, 2021, the firm <a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/52a91184-ea90-4412-bf35-9e2998867d22.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">promptly disclosed</a> this to the exchanges. While IDFC claims to practice “exemplary” governance standards, in reality it is barely conforming to the stipulated minimum.Apparently, for IDFC, the 73-year old Vinod Rai is indispensable, and he has to be retained on the board at all costs. Indeed, Rai’s public pronouncement on the recent <a href="https://www.idfc.com/pdf/Transcript-of-IDFC-Ltd_Pre-AGM-Call_14Sep2021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">conference call</a>  suggests that he plays an executive role in the company.There is no explicit legal requirement which prohibits a person from continuing on the board as a non-independent director after his/her mandated two consecutive terms as independent director. However, the underlying principle of independence would have required an independent director gracefully leave the board after the mandated two consecutive terms. That Vinod Rai is willing to continue as a non-independent director on IDFC, with the support of the executive, raises suspicions about the extent of his “independence” when he was an independent director from <a href="https://www.idfc.com/pdf/apptofdirectorNSEBSe.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2015</a>  to <a href="https://www.idfc.com/pdf/IDFCLettertoSEOutcome25052021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">May 2021</a>  .That a prominent company with significant institutional ownership declines to disclose the resignation of its independent director to the exchanges and seamlessly reclassifies its independent director as a non-executive non-independent director is an indication of poor standards of corporate governance.  Far from being “exemplary”, it has devised a method of subverting governance for all those companies who would want to continue with compromised independent directors after their mandated tenures as independent directors are over.

The IDFC Ltd (IDFC IN) ’s board of directors’ decision to reclassify Vinod Rai, hitherto independent director, as a non-independent non-executive director provides a backdoor entry for all those independent directors whom founders/promoters and executive management want to retain after the mandated two consecutive terms. In the critical financial sector there is a reason why regulators stipulate maximum continuous tenures for auditors and independent directors. The purpose is to prevent excessive proximity to the promoters/executive management. It is surprising that not only does the IDFC board fail to comprehend this basic principle, but that Vinod Rai himself is willing to compromise his “independence” and stature to continue on the IDFC board on such terms.It is equally surprising that the IDFC, which in its FY2021 annual report describes itself as being “renowned for exemplary governance”, declined to inform the stock exchanges of Vinod Rai’s resignation, and failed to upload his resignation letter on the grounds that this stipulation would be effective from January 1, 2022. Pertinently, when two of Zee Entertainment’s directors resigned on September 13, 2021, the firm promptly disclosed this to the exchanges. While IDFC claims to practice “exemplary” governance standards, in reality it is barely conforming to the stipulated minimum.Apparently, for IDFC, the 73-year old Vinod Rai is indispensable, and he has to be retained on the board at all costs. Indeed, Rai’s public pronouncement on the recent conference call  suggests that he plays an executive role in the company.There is no explicit legal requirement which prohibits a person from continuing on the board as a non-independent director after his/her mandated two consecutive terms as independent director. However, the underlying principle of independence would have required an independent director gracefully leave the board after the mandated two consecutive terms. That Vinod Rai is willing to continue as a non-independent director on IDFC, with the support of the executive, raises suspicions about the extent of his “independence” when he was an independent director from 2015  to May 2021  .That a prominent company with significant institutional ownership declines to disclose the resignation of its independent director to the exchanges and seamlessly reclassifies its independent director as a non-executive non-independent director is an indication of poor standards of corporate governance.  Far from being “exemplary”, it has devised a method of subverting governance for all those companies who would want to continue with compromised independent directors after their mandated tenures as independent directors are over.

Vinod Rai Re-Enters the IDFC Board Through the Backdoor Highlighting “Exemplary” Governance

India

IDFC Limited offers infrastructure project financing services.  The Company primarily finances energy, telecommunications, and transportation projects.

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IDFC Ltd (IDFC IN)

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

Impact of Potential Changes to India F&O Eligibility Criteria

News reports indicate that SEBI is looking to tighten criteria for inclusion and continued availability of stocks in the F&O segment. 30 stocks...

Brian Freitas

False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global sovereign bond yields remain on an upward trajectory, with 10-year yields hitting multi-year highs this week in many countries; we expect...

Vermilion Research

The Rise of Shareholder Activism in India

Shareholder activism is on the rise in India with several recent instances where investors have raised concerns through voting rights and EGMs as...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Vinod Rai Re-Enters the IDFC Board Through the Backdoor Highlighting “Exemplary” Governance

The present case may become known in the future as the “Rai loophole”, showing the way for other firms to continue with compromised ‘independent’...

Hemindra Hazari

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