Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: After three consecutive up weeks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp-spon-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8245:1" rel="noopener">Toyota ADR (TM US)</a> now screens as overbought, with quantitative models signaling a high probability of a trend reversal.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: Elevated implied volatility (82–83rd percentile) makes short call strategies attractive. Selling near-term calls captures rich premium while aligning with downside risk.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight highlights a timely opportunity where technical overbought signals and historically rich IV converge — ideal for investors seeking a tactical setup.</li>
</ul>



Context: After three consecutive up weeks, Toyota (7203 JP) / Toyota ADR (TM US) now screens as overbought, with quantitative models signaling a high probability of a trend reversal.

Trade Idea: Elevated implied volatility (82–83rd percentile) makes short call strategies attractive. Selling near-term calls captures rich premium while aligning with downside risk.

Why Read: This Insight highlights a timely opportunity where technical overbought signals and historically rich IV converge — ideal for investors seeking a tactical setup.


Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Overbought: Rich Options for Tactical Shorts

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-heavy-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5439:1" rel="noopener">Subaru (7270 JP)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Both companies in this highly correlated pair reported results on 7 August 2025, opening up a rare opportunity.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Toyota (7203 JP) vs. Subaru (7270 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Both companies in this highly correlated pair reported results on 7 August 2025, opening up a rare opportunity.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Subaru (7270 JP): Rare Mean-Reversion Setup After Earnings

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Currently seven pair trade opportunities across two markets and two sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlight: Currently seven pair trade opportunities across two markets and two sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (18 Aug)

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlight: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (11 Aug)

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big capex plans for Google and good numbers for SK Hynix setting strong tone for AI related.</li>
<li>Momo names slid yesterday, although Ishiba heading for door may pressure heavies further.</li>
<li>Autos squeezed hard yesterday, but there should be more upside for names with elevated SI still.</li>
</ul>


Big capex plans for Google and good numbers for SK Hynix setting strong tone for AI related.
Momo names slid yesterday, although Ishiba heading for door may pressure heavies further.
Autos squeezed hard yesterday, but there should be more upside for names with elevated SI still.


Japan Morning Connection: US Liking JP and Expected EU Trade Deals, Expect Flows Back in Tech

Japan

Subaru Corp manufactures passenger cars, buses, motor vehicle parts, and industrial machinery.  The Company also produces aircraft parts and supplies it to defense agency and Boeing Co.  The Company sells its passenger cars under the Subaru brand name.

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Subaru Corp (7270 JP)

Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Overbought: Rich Options for Tactical Shorts

Rich options and an overbought signal converge, with models pointing to a probable reversal. Short call strategies allow investors to monetize...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Subaru (7270 JP): Rare Mean-Reversion Setup After Earnings

The pair long Toyota (7203 JP) vs. short Subaru (7270 JP) has generated a trade close signal as of 18 Aug. The price ratio mean-reverted with...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (18 Aug)

Statistical methodology identifies seven pair trade opportunities across two markets and two sectors. Update on previously flagged opportunities,...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (11 Aug)

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: US Liking JP and Expected EU Trade Deals, Expect Flows Back in Tech

With reversal from momentum and Ishiba's resignation, defense names may drop further. Autos may have plenty more upside despite big moves yesterday.

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Overbought: Rich Options for Tactical Shorts

Rich options and an overbought signal converge, with models pointing to a probable reversal. Short call strategies allow investors to monetize...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Subaru (7270 JP): Rare Mean-Reversion Setup After Earnings

The pair long Toyota (7203 JP) vs. short Subaru (7270 JP) has generated a trade close signal as of 18 Aug. The price ratio mean-reverted with...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (18 Aug)

​Statistical methodology identifies seven pair trade opportunities across two markets and two sectors. Update on previously flagged opportunities,...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (11 Aug)

​Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: US Liking JP and Expected EU Trade Deals, Expect Flows Back in Tech

With reversal from momentum and Ishiba's resignation, defense names may drop further. Autos may have plenty more upside despite big moves yesterday.

Andrew Jackson

Statistical methodology identifies seven pair trade opportunities across two markets and two sectors. Update on previously flagged opportunities,...

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.