'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/683/original/2020-12-01_09-00-54.png?1606780869" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175683"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics </div><p><strong>FOUR QUADRANTS</strong> - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-</p><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN BUYS</strong> - Low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN SELLS</strong> - High Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>TURNAROUND BUYS </strong>- High Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>EX-GROWTH SELLS</strong> - Low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul>
<p>The Ex-Growth Sells quadrant offers more fertile ground for shorting as the decline in earnings momentum is already clear, however, in many cases, the market is reluctant to sell the 'darlings' of the past. Examples of profitable Ex-Growth Sells from 2020 are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyudenko-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5414:1" rel="noopener">Kyudenko(1959 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ariake-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1" rel="noopener">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santen-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8602:1" rel="noopener">Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP)</a>. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/693/original/2020-12-01_10-13-31.png?1606785235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175693"></figure></section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/699/original/2020-12-01_10-22-36.png?1606785767" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175699"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/700/original/2020-12-01_10-23-41.png?1606785833" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175700"></figure></section><p><strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EX-GROWTH SELLS</a></strong> - In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the current Ex-Growth Sells. The is the last Insight in this four-part mini-series. The first three Insights can be found at - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-contrarian-buys" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45688" rel="noopener">Contrarian Buys,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-contrarian-sells" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45725" rel="noopener">Contrarian Sells</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-turnaround-buys" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45829" rel="noopener">Turnaround Buys</a>.   </p></section>
</div>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-


CONTRARIAN BUYS - Low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - High Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUND BUYS - High Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTH SELLS - Low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores

The Ex-Growth Sells quadrant offers more fertile ground for shorting as the decline in earnings momentum is already clear, however, in many cases, the market is reluctant to sell the 'darlings' of the past. Examples of profitable Ex-Growth Sells from 2020 are Kyudenko(1959 JP), Ariake Japan (2815 JP), and Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP). 
EX-GROWTH SELLS - In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the current Ex-Growth Sells. The is the last Insight in this four-part mini-series. The first three Insights can be found at - Contrarian Buys, Contrarian Sells, and Turnaround Buys.   


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Ex-Growth Sells

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>By using a tool usually associated with social media influencers, Japanese cosmetics makers have put a twist on advertising, especially for China’s largest shopping event of the year.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> has been livestreaming almost every day since late October, when marketing campaigns for China’s Singles’ Day sale held every year on November 11 accelerated. More than 400,000 viewers tuned in to Shiseido’s livestreams from its Tokyo headquarters and a studio in the Chinese city of Hangzhou.</p><p>In Japan, such advertising campaigns were usually carried out by social media influencers. However, Shiseido is relying on its own employees instead of social media influencers to promote its products. Shiseido started using “Miss SHISEIDO” to promote its products as early as 1934, which later evolved to beauty consultants. The consultants have been trained to use technology advancements, and c. 7,400 people have enrolled at the Shiseido Digital Academy. We believe that the trend towards live e-commerce and livestreaming events will continue to accelerate post-pandemic, not just with Shiseido but also with other Japanese cosmetic companies.</p>

By using a tool usually associated with social media influencers, Japanese cosmetics makers have put a twist on advertising, especially for China’s largest shopping event of the year.Shiseido Company (4911 JP) has been livestreaming almost every day since late October, when marketing campaigns for China’s Singles’ Day sale held every year on November 11 accelerated. More than 400,000 viewers tuned in to Shiseido’s livestreams from its Tokyo headquarters and a studio in the Chinese city of Hangzhou.In Japan, such advertising campaigns were usually carried out by social media influencers. However, Shiseido is relying on its own employees instead of social media influencers to promote its products. Shiseido started using “Miss SHISEIDO” to promote its products as early as 1934, which later evolved to beauty consultants. The consultants have been trained to use technology advancements, and c. 7,400 people have enrolled at the Shiseido Digital Academy. We believe that the trend towards live e-commerce and livestreaming events will continue to accelerate post-pandemic, not just with Shiseido but also with other Japanese cosmetic companies.

How Livestreaming, The Latest Trend in E-Commerce Is Revolutionising Cosmetics Retail

<p>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> beat consensus OP comprehensively in Q3, the company lowered its full-year revenue and OP guidance citing weaker than expected demand in Japan and worsening COVID-19 health crisis in Europe and the US. However, Shiseido shares were up 4.7% yesterday following the release of positive COVID-19 vaccine update by Pfizer. With the 2021 EV/OP multiple at an all-time high of 52.0x, it appears that the post-pandemic recovery is already priced in.</p>

Although Shiseido Company (4911 JP) beat consensus OP comprehensively in Q3, the company lowered its full-year revenue and OP guidance citing weaker than expected demand in Japan and worsening COVID-19 health crisis in Europe and the US. However, Shiseido shares were up 4.7% yesterday following the release of positive COVID-19 vaccine update by Pfizer. With the 2021 EV/OP multiple at an all-time high of 52.0x, it appears that the post-pandemic recovery is already priced in.

Shiseido: Departing From Cost Discipline or Playing Safe?

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Tuesday's best and worst pairing is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1" rel="noopener">Takara Bio (4974 JP)</a> and staffing agency <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temp-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1428:1" rel="noopener">Persol (2181 JP)</a>.  </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/640/original/2020-11-11_05-58-20.png?1605041913" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170640"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/641/original/2020-11-11_06-01-01.png?1605042074" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170641"></figure></section><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>244 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 49% Positive / 6% Neutral / 45% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.1 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.3% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.1 ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 20%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>111 Annual • 22 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 54% Positive / 7% Neutral / 39% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 64% Positive / 0% Neutral / 36% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 1.7 points</p></li>
</ul></div>
</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Tuesday's best and worst pairing is Takara Bio (4974 JP) and staffing agency Persol (2181 JP).  
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS

244 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 49% Positive / 6% Neutral / 45% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.1 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -5.3% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.1 ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 20%


111 Annual • 22 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 54% Positive / 7% Neutral / 39% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 64% Positive / 0% Neutral / 36% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1.7 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​10 - Shiseido, FUJIFILM, Otsuka, Persol

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>’s second-quarter revenue and operating income fell short of consensus estimates by 0.3% and 14.5%, respectively, but 1HFY21 revenue was broadly in line with the interim revenue guidance, while 1HFY21 OP beat guidance by 13.5%. </p><p>Cosmetics revenue and operating profit declined by 23.3% and 58.7%, while the Nutritional Supplements segment saw revenue declined 10.4%, but operating profit grew by 3.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Fancl eventually admitted that inbound demand is unlikely to recover in the second half of the year. Therefore, the company decided to lower its full-year revenue and OP guidance by ¥7.0 billion and ¥1.5 billion, respectively. However, the revised full-year revenue guidance is just 5.4% lower than the previous year, which is significantly lower compared to 15.8% and 12.5% for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a> respectively. The relative performance difference of Fancl was substantially better at the OP level.</p>

Fancl Corp (4921 JP)’s second-quarter revenue and operating income fell short of consensus estimates by 0.3% and 14.5%, respectively, but 1HFY21 revenue was broadly in line with the interim revenue guidance, while 1HFY21 OP beat guidance by 13.5%. Cosmetics revenue and operating profit declined by 23.3% and 58.7%, while the Nutritional Supplements segment saw revenue declined 10.4%, but operating profit grew by 3.4% year-on-year.Fancl eventually admitted that inbound demand is unlikely to recover in the second half of the year. Therefore, the company decided to lower its full-year revenue and OP guidance by ¥7.0 billion and ¥1.5 billion, respectively. However, the revised full-year revenue guidance is just 5.4% lower than the previous year, which is significantly lower compared to 15.8% and 12.5% for Shiseido Company (4911 JP) and Kose Corp (4922 JP) respectively. The relative performance difference of Fancl was substantially better at the OP level.

The Market Is Yet to Price Fancl’s China Expansion

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Ex-Growth Sells

EX-GROWTH SELLS - In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the current Ex-Growth Sells. The is the last Insight in this four-part mini-series.

Campbell Gunn

How Livestreaming, The Latest Trend in E-Commerce Is Revolutionising Cosmetics Retail

By using a tool usually associated with social media influencers, Japanese cosmetics makers have put a twist on advertising, especially for China’s...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Shiseido: Departing From Cost Discipline or Playing Safe?

Although Shiseido beat consensus OP comprehensively in Q3, the company lowered its full-year revenue and OP guidance citing weaker than expected...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/10 - Shiseido, FUJIFILM, Otsuka, Persol

• BEST & WORST • Tuesday's best and worst pairing is Takara Bio (4974 JP) and staffing agency Persol (2181 JP)......................

Campbell Gunn

The Market Is Yet to Price Fancl’s China Expansion

Fancl’s second-quarter revenue and operating income fell short of consensus estimates by 0.3% and 14.5%, respectively, but 1HFY21 revenue was...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Ex-Growth Sells

EX-GROWTH SELLS - In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the current Ex-Growth Sells. The is the last Insight in this four-part mini-series.

Campbell Gunn

How Livestreaming, The Latest Trend in E-Commerce Is Revolutionising Cosmetics Retail

By using a tool usually associated with social media influencers, Japanese cosmetics makers have put a twist on advertising, especially for China’s...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Shiseido: Departing From Cost Discipline or Playing Safe?

Although Shiseido beat consensus OP comprehensively in Q3, the company lowered its full-year revenue and OP guidance citing weaker than expected...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​10 - Shiseido, FUJIFILM, Otsuka, Persol

• BEST & WORST • Tuesday's best and worst pairing is Takara Bio (4974 JP) and staffing agency Persol (2181 JP)......................

Campbell Gunn

The Market Is Yet to Price Fancl’s China Expansion

Fancl’s second-quarter revenue and operating income fell short of consensus estimates by 0.3% and 14.5%, respectively, but 1HFY21 revenue was...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/10 - Shiseido, FUJIFILM, Otsuka, Persol