Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><blockquote>‘“I try to use a facial pack every night,” says Mr. Kim, 28 years old, who now works at an office in Seoul. “It’s been a daily routine since my time in the military.” South Korea is a force in the global beauty industry and its carefully groomed pop idols have become global stars. And for many guys here, the gateway to face serums and 10 step skin care regimens is their time as military conscripts. During his service, Mr. Kim developed a routine while posted at an observation post along the barbed wire fences of the inter-Korean demilitarized zone.’ </blockquote></div><div class="content-remarks"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-to-surviving-military-service-moisturizer-foam-cleanser-cucumber-face-mask-1535034194" target="_blank">WSJ article</a> on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men</div><blockquote>
“Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic priorities and investing in our multiple engines of growth, we delivered double-digit sales and earnings per share gains in all four quarters. In constant currency full year sales rose 13%, nearly twice the rate of global prestige beauty and diluted EPS increased 24%. What made our performance particularly strong were our over achievements in Asia and in Skin Care globally. ” 
</blockquote><div class="content-remarks">Fabrizio Freda, CEO Estee Lauder</div><div class="content-remarks">
<blockquote>‘But the market and gender norms are changing, with cosmetics no longer seen as exclusively for women and male celebrities showing that it is OK for men to dab on a bit of blush. Jiang says a firm that manages bloggers pays him about 5,000 yuan (US$730) per month to feature products from cosmetics companies. Increasingly, foreign firms like La Mer and Aesop work with video bloggers such as Lan Haoyi, to promote their products to his nearly 1.4 million followers.’</blockquote>
From a recent SCMP article
</div>

‘“I try to use a facial pack every night,” says Mr. Kim, 28 years old, who now works at an office in Seoul. “It’s been a daily routine since my time in the military.” South Korea is a force in the global beauty industry and its carefully groomed pop idols have become global stars. And for many guys here, the gateway to face serums and 10 step skin care regimens is their time as military conscripts. During his service, Mr. Kim developed a routine while posted at an observation post along the barbed wire fences of the inter-Korean demilitarized zone.’ WSJ article on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men
“Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic priorities and investing in our multiple engines of growth, we delivered double-digit sales and earnings per share gains in all four quarters. In constant currency full year sales rose 13%, nearly twice the rate of global prestige beauty and diluted EPS increased 24%. What made our performance particularly strong were our over achievements in Asia and in Skin Care globally. ” 
Fabrizio Freda, CEO Estee Lauder
‘But the market and gender norms are changing, with cosmetics no longer seen as exclusively for women and male celebrities showing that it is OK for men to dab on a bit of blush. Jiang says a firm that manages bloggers pays him about 5,000 yuan (US$730) per month to feature products from cosmetics companies. Increasingly, foreign firms like La Mer and Aesop work with video bloggers such as Lan Haoyi, to promote their products to his nearly 1.4 million followers.’
From a recent SCMP article


Korean Men Leading Next Asian Skincare Boom

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Best World International / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>1H 2018 Result Summary</h2>1H 2018 ended as the management informed late last year; a weak revenue contribution from China as they are transitioning from the export to a franchise model as well as the following:<ul>
<li>Revenue declined by 36.46% but gross margin improved by 6 bps from last year</li>
<li>Other operating income grew by 58.3 YoY, 95% on 6m basis YoY - it is what Best World charges its agents in China for market support activities, products training, and IT services as a function of the agents' sales…</li>
</ul>

1H 2018 Result Summary1H 2018 ended as the management informed late last year; a weak revenue contribution from China as they are transitioning from the export to a franchise model as well as the following:
Revenue declined by 36.46% but gross margin improved by 6 bps from last year
Other operating income grew by 58.3 YoY, 95% on 6m basis YoY - it is what Best World charges its agents in China for market support activities, products training, and IT services as a function of the agents' sales…


Best World (BEST): 1H, License to Sell in China on the 2H, and Relative Value Idea

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh straight quarter of improved earnings results with a ‘raspberry’. Almost all of the previous two week's gains have been unwound; the 50-day moving average has been breached on the downside and volumes have continued to grind lower. The Market Composite trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PE is now just 14.2x and the lowest level of the soon-to-be-extended ‘era’ of…

GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh straight quarter of improved earnings results with a ‘raspberry’. Almost all of the previous two week's gains have been unwound; the 50-day moving average has been breached on the downside and volumes have continued to grind lower. The Market Composite trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PE is now just 14.2x and the lowest level of the soon-to-be-extended ‘era’ of…

Japan Fortnightly Update: Market PE at ‘Abe-Era’ Low

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Chacko Jacob

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<h2>Overview</h2>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18009" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a> is the third largest cosmetics company in Japan after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12933" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5718" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1">Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP)</a>. But unlike Shiseido, the company’s revenue growth is not driven by inbound tourists or travel retail but instead through strong branding and inorganic growth in regions like North America. Kose Corp’s stock price increased 1.8x in the last year alone and we think there could be further upside risk post the announcement of its 1Q results today. 
Kose was founded in…

Overview
Kose Corp (4922 JP) is the third largest cosmetics company in Japan after Kao Corp (4452 JP) and Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP). But unlike Shiseido, the company’s revenue growth is not driven by inbound tourists or travel retail but instead through strong branding and inorganic growth in regions like North America. Kose Corp’s stock price increased 1.8x in the last year alone and we think there could be further upside risk post the announcement of its 1Q results today. 
Kose was founded in…

Kose Corp(4922 JP): Overseas Segment & Lower Exposure to Tourism Lays Foundation for Steady Growth

CYCLICAL SECTORS RALLY WITH THE MARKET - Japanese equities have rallied 3.6% over the last two weeks, and the market composite is now flat since the end of April. Mean reversion was widespread and the range from worst to best three-month change narrowed from 22.5% to 18.1%. Banks, Energy, Chemicals, and Metals led, while REITs, Media,Telcom and Retail lagged. Domestic growth sectors (Internet, Commercial Services, Information Technology and Healthcare) are still well ahead over three months…

CYCLICAL SECTORS RALLY WITH THE MARKET - Japanese equities have rallied 3.6% over the last two weeks, and the market composite is now flat since the end of April. Mean reversion was widespread and the range from worst to best three-month change narrowed from 22.5% to 18.1%. Banks, Energy, Chemicals, and Metals led, while REITs, Media,Telcom and Retail lagged. Domestic growth sectors (Internet, Commercial Services, Information Technology and Healthcare) are still well ahead over three months…

Japan Fortnightly Update: Banks to Neutral/Utilities to Negative - Results Momentum Still Slowing

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

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Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

Korean Men Leading Next Asian Skincare Boom

WSJ article on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men “Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic...

Sean Maher

Best World (BEST): 1H, License to Sell in China on the 2H, and Relative Value Idea

1H 2018 Result Summary1H 2018 ended as the management informed late last year; a weak revenue contribution from China as they are transitioning...

Henry Soediarko

Japan Fortnightly Update: Market PE at ‘Abe-Era’ Low

GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh...

Campbell Gunn

Kose Corp(4922 JP): Overseas Segment & Lower Exposure to Tourism Lays Foundation for Steady Growth

Overview Kose Corp (4922 JP) is the third largest cosmetics company in Japan after Kao Corp (4452 JP) and Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP). But unlike...

Chacko Jacob

Japan Fortnightly Update: Banks to Neutral/Utilities to Negative - Results Momentum Still Slowing

CYCLICAL SECTORS RALLY WITH THE MARKET - Japanese equities have rallied 3.6% over the last two weeks, and the market composite is now flat since...

Campbell Gunn

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52-week Range

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