Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>RHB Bank is now our sole pick in Malaysian banks, topping our proprietary scorecard; it retains strong fundamental value credentials, with an improving cost of risk trend</li>
<li>We downgrade CIMB shares to a hold from a buy; the valuations are less compelling than RHB and it has further to improve on credit quality and returns</li>
<li>PB Bank is a name to watch for its sustained premium returns, and for its position as the peer group benchmark in terms of ROE, credit quality and efficiency ratio</li>
</ul>


RHB Bank is now our sole pick in Malaysian banks, topping our proprietary scorecard; it retains strong fundamental value credentials, with an improving cost of risk trend
We downgrade CIMB shares to a hold from a buy; the valuations are less compelling than RHB and it has further to improve on credit quality and returns
PB Bank is a name to watch for its sustained premium returns, and for its position as the peer group benchmark in terms of ROE, credit quality and efficiency ratio


Malaysian Banks; Stick with RHB Bank, Downgrading CIMB

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jul 11th. The aggregated short interest is USD377m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Ytl, Nationgate Holdings Berhad, Ytl Power International, Gamuda, Bumi Armada.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jul 11th. The aggregated short interest is USD377m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Ytl, Nationgate Holdings Berhad, Ytl Power International, Gamuda, Bumi Armada.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jul 11th): Ytl, Nationgate Holdings Berhad, Ytl Power International

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Malaysian ownership continues its upward trend after a 10-year bear market in positioning from 2014 to 2023</li>
<li>Longer-Term ownership declines in Malaysian Financials and Industrials are starting to reverse.</li>
<li>Only 3 companies are owned by more than 10% of funds, with CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK)  the clear leader.</li>
</ul>


Malaysian ownership continues its upward trend after a 10-year bear market in positioning from 2014 to 2023
Longer-Term ownership declines in Malaysian Financials and Industrials are starting to reverse.
Only 3 companies are owned by more than 10% of funds, with CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK)  the clear leader.


Malaysia: Sentiment Change Drives Positioning Off the Lows

<ul>
<li>RHB Bank is our Malaysian bank top pick, with its real turnaround potential for returns; CIMB remains a buy but is less compelling than RHB given its marked re-rating year-to-date</li>
<li>Our new buy RHB Bank is stand-out value versus its Malaysian peers and it is improving returns from low levels; its main delinquency challenges are concentrated in small overseas portfolios</li>
<li>We reiterate our buy on CIMB; management continues to drive credit quality with cost of risk improvements, and we see potential for operating efficiency gains, combined with its attractive valuations</li>
</ul>


RHB Bank is our Malaysian bank top pick, with its real turnaround potential for returns; CIMB remains a buy but is less compelling than RHB given its marked re-rating year-to-date
Our new buy RHB Bank is stand-out value versus its Malaysian peers and it is improving returns from low levels; its main delinquency challenges are concentrated in small overseas portfolios
We reiterate our buy on CIMB; management continues to drive credit quality with cost of risk improvements, and we see potential for operating efficiency gains, combined with its attractive valuations


Malaysian Banks Screen; RHB Bank Upgraded to a Buy, Alongside Existing Buy on CIMB

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.</li>
<li>The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.</li>
<li>There are 241 adds and 208 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.
There are 241 adds and 208 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

Malaysia

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

Price Gauge
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Public Bank (PBK MK)

Malaysian Banks; Stick with RHB Bank, Downgrading CIMB

RHB Bank is our sole pick in Malaysian banks with strong fundamentals, potential to improve returns whilst CIMB is downgraded to hold; PB Bank one...

Victor Galliano

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jul 11th): Ytl, Nationgate Holdings Berhad, Ytl Power International

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Ytl, Nationgate Holdings Berhad, Ytl...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Malaysia: Sentiment Change Drives Positioning Off the Lows

Among active Emerging Market funds, Malaysian ownership continues its upward trend after a 10-year bear market in positioning from 2014 to 2023.

Steven Holden

Malaysian Banks Screen; RHB Bank Upgraded to a Buy, Alongside Existing Buy on CIMB

RHB Bank is our top pick in Malaysian banks for its value attributes with strong turnaround potential, while CIMB remains the quality buy even...

Victor Galliano

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 241 adds/208 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index. The round-trip trade is around US$2.5bn and there are a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Malaysian Banks; Stick with RHB Bank, Downgrading CIMB

​RHB Bank is our sole pick in Malaysian banks with strong fundamentals, potential to improve returns whilst CIMB is downgraded to hold; PB Bank one...

Victor Galliano

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jul 11th): Ytl, Nationgate Holdings Berhad, Ytl Power International

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Ytl, Nationgate Holdings Berhad, Ytl...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Malaysia: Sentiment Change Drives Positioning Off the Lows

Among active Emerging Market funds, Malaysian ownership continues its upward trend after a 10-year bear market in positioning from 2014 to 2023.

Steven Holden

Malaysian Banks Screen; RHB Bank Upgraded to a Buy, Alongside Existing Buy on CIMB

​RHB Bank is our top pick in Malaysian banks for its value attributes with strong turnaround potential, while CIMB remains the quality buy even...

Victor Galliano

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 241 adds/208 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index. The round-trip trade is around US$2.5bn and there are a...

Brian Freitas

RHB Bank is our sole pick in Malaysian banks with strong fundamentals, potential to improve returns whilst CIMB is downgraded to hold; PB Bank one...

RHB Bank is our top pick in Malaysian banks for its value attributes with strong turnaround potential, while CIMB remains the quality buy even...