Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The global offering doc for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0919/2025091900073.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>.</li>
<li>At the IPO Price of HK$71.59/share, Zijin Gold's implied market cap is HK$187.9bn or US$24bn. Commencement of trading is the 29th September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining (2899 HK)</a> will hold 86.7% in Zijin Gold post-IPO (before over-allotment).  Even if Zijin Gold trades north of HK$100/share, Zijin Mining is fully valued.</li>
</ul>


The global offering doc for Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is out.
At the IPO Price of HK$71.59/share, Zijin Gold's implied market cap is HK$187.9bn or US$24bn. Commencement of trading is the 29th September.

Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold 86.7% in Zijin Gold post-IPO (before over-allotment).  Even if Zijin Gold trades north of HK$100/share, Zijin Mining is fully valued.


Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Gold Priced At US$24bn

<ul>
<li>In my <a href="https://skr.ma/BdEuy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">June note</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK)</a> appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! </li>
<li>A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  </li>
<li>However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. </li>
</ul>


In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! 
A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  
However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. 


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dilution: The gold IPO trims attributable EBITDA by ~3% as minority interests rise.</li>
<li>Parent Impact: Zijin parent emerges leaner, with net debt falling by US$4bn and copper now ~70% of EBITDA.</li>
<li>Valuation: At ~7× EV/EBITDA, the stock offers 15–30% upside on our estimates, stretching to 25–45% at spot.</li>
</ul>


Dilution: The gold IPO trims attributable EBITDA by ~3% as minority interests rise.
Parent Impact: Zijin parent emerges leaner, with net debt falling by US$4bn and copper now ~70% of EBITDA.
Valuation: At ~7× EV/EBITDA, the stock offers 15–30% upside on our estimates, stretching to 25–45% at spot.


Zijin Mining: Gold IPO De-Risks, Copper Upside Remains

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
<li>That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.</li>
<li>The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

<ul>
<li>Zijin Mining delivered a strong H1 2025 with net profit up 55% YoY, comfortably ahead of guidance.</li>
<li>We have raised FY25–27 earnings by 20–25%, with further upside optionality from the planned Zijin Gold spin-off.</li>
<li>Trading at ~11.4x 2026E P/E and ~10.3x 2027F, with EV/EBITDA at 6.3x and 5.8x respectively, Zijin’s valuations remain undemanding—supporting a bullish, accumulate stance.</li>
</ul>


Zijin Mining delivered a strong H1 2025 with net profit up 55% YoY, comfortably ahead of guidance.
We have raised FY25–27 earnings by 20–25%, with further upside optionality from the planned Zijin Gold spin-off.
Trading at ~11.4x 2026E P/E and ~10.3x 2027F, with EV/EBITDA at 6.3x and 5.8x respectively, Zijin’s valuations remain undemanding—supporting a bullish, accumulate stance.


Zijin Mining (2899 HK | 601899 CH) H1 2025: Profit Beats, Estimates Raised on Gold & Copper

China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Gold Priced At US$24bn

Zijin Mining is a short. The pushback? The market is hot for gold, with momentum on its side. Plus you have long only support

David Blennerhassett

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

I can envisage a market cap of US$20-25bn. Maybe US$30bn if pushing PER or EV/EBITDA metrics. $40bn appears unhinged. I'd be shorting Zijin Mining...

David Blennerhassett

Zijin Mining: Gold IPO De-Risks, Copper Upside Remains

Zijin's gold IPO slightly reduces att. EBITDA, but parent company sees positive impact with lower debt and increased focus on copper, offering...

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Mining (2899 HK | 601899 CH) H1 2025: Profit Beats, Estimates Raised on Gold & Copper

Zijin Gold International is preparing a Hong Kong IPO in September 2025, targeting US$2 billion. It filed its A1 application on 30 June, and on 26...

Rahul Jain

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Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Gold Priced At US$24bn

Zijin Mining is a short. The pushback? The market is hot for gold, with momentum on its side. Plus you have long only support

David Blennerhassett

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

I can envisage a market cap of US$20-25bn. Maybe US$30bn if pushing PER or EV/EBITDA metrics. $40bn appears unhinged. I'd be shorting Zijin Mining...

David Blennerhassett

Zijin Mining: Gold IPO De-Risks, Copper Upside Remains

​Zijin's gold IPO slightly reduces att. EBITDA, but parent company sees positive impact with lower debt and increased focus on copper, offering...

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Mining (2899 HK | 601899 CH) H1 2025: Profit Beats, Estimates Raised on Gold & Copper

Zijin Gold International is preparing a Hong Kong IPO in September 2025, targeting US$2 billion. It filed its A1 application on 30 June, and on 26...

Rahul Jain

Zijin's gold IPO slightly reduces att. EBITDA, but parent company sees positive impact with lower debt and increased focus on copper, offering...