Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>We aim at nearly 0% growth QoQ for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>'s revenue in 2Q25, but US tariff can be a changing factor since April, 2025.</li>
<li>Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission is announcing on April 6th, 2025 with three temporary methods to prevent a sudden slump of Taiwan stock market today.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is taking about 39.2% of Taiwan stock market value, which is the single largest stock in Taiwan.  </li>
</ul>


We aim at nearly 0% growth QoQ for Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'s revenue in 2Q25, but US tariff can be a changing factor since April, 2025.
Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission is announcing on April 6th, 2025 with three temporary methods to prevent a sudden slump of Taiwan stock market today.  

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is taking about 39.2% of Taiwan stock market value, which is the single largest stock in Taiwan.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs!

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Media report 2nm “Customers Lined Up To Pay An Estimated $30,000 Per Unit”. Capacity is full but small. Wafer price at 28k. US$30bn revenue in 4Q25 is very likely.</li>
<li>UMC Singapore Fab expansion is nearing completion and will increase capacity in Singapore to 22% of total. UMC needs GlobalFoundries to diversify?</li>
<li>TSMC is trading just slightly below average PE at 15.0x forward EPS. Similarly for UMC trading at 12.3x forward EPS. As such, we’re far from valuations support levels.</li>
</ul>


Media report 2nm “Customers Lined Up To Pay An Estimated $30,000 Per Unit”. Capacity is full but small. Wafer price at 28k. US$30bn revenue in 4Q25 is very likely.
UMC Singapore Fab expansion is nearing completion and will increase capacity in Singapore to 22% of total. UMC needs GlobalFoundries to diversify?
TSMC is trading just slightly below average PE at 15.0x forward EPS. Similarly for UMC trading at 12.3x forward EPS. As such, we’re far from valuations support levels.


TSMC 2nm Capacity, Wafer Price. UMC Singapore Fab Starting. Both Stocks Trading Just Below Avg PEx

<ul>
<li>Reports of merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries. Beyond the threat of US import tariffs for UMC, it would create a larger firm to counter SMIC’s expansion. Easier said than done</li>
<li>TSMC second 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung “inaugurated”, 2nm production unchanged mid of 2025. A16 process and equipment qualification underway for risk production in 2027.</li>
<li>Biden era CHIPS Act subsidies (US$52bn) could be cancelled or the program is completed and the assigned staff leaving?</li>
</ul>


Reports of merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries. Beyond the threat of US import tariffs for UMC, it would create a larger firm to counter SMIC’s expansion. Easier said than done
TSMC second 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung “inaugurated”, 2nm production unchanged mid of 2025. A16 process and equipment qualification underway for risk production in 2027.
Biden era CHIPS Act subsidies (US$52bn) could be cancelled or the program is completed and the assigned staff leaving?


UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 28th which has an aggregated holding worth USD902.6bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,403mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer, Eva Airways.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 28th which has an aggregated holding worth USD902.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,403mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer, Eva Airways.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 28th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 28th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Quanta Computer, Eva Airways, Macronix International, Sinopac Financial, Largan Precision, Chang Hwa Commercial Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 28th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Quanta Computer, Eva Airways, Macronix International, Sinopac Financial, Largan Precision, Chang Hwa Commercial Bank.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): Quanta Computer, Eva Airways, Macronix Intl

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs!

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 0% revenue growth in 2Q25, but US tariffs could impact, as Taiwan takes measures to prevent stock market slump.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 2nm Capacity, Wafer Price. UMC Singapore Fab Starting. Both Stocks Trading Just Below Avg PEx

Customers are willing to pay top dollar for 2nm chips, UMC's Singapore expansion nears completion. TSMC and UMC trading below average PE ratios....

Nicolas Baratte

UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...

Nicolas Baratte

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 28th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): Quanta Computer, Eva Airways, Macronix Intl

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Quanta Computer, Eva Airways, Macronix...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs!

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 0% revenue growth in 2Q25, but US tariffs could impact, as Taiwan takes measures to prevent stock market slump.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 2nm Capacity, Wafer Price. UMC Singapore Fab Starting. Both Stocks Trading Just Below Avg PEx

​Customers are willing to pay top dollar for 2nm chips, UMC's Singapore expansion nears completion. TSMC and UMC trading below average PE ratios....

Nicolas Baratte

UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

​Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...

Nicolas Baratte

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 28th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): Quanta Computer, Eva Airways, Macronix Intl

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Quanta Computer, Eva Airways, Macronix...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 0% revenue growth in 2Q25, but US tariffs could impact, as Taiwan takes measures to prevent stock market slump.

Customers are willing to pay top dollar for 2nm chips, UMC's Singapore expansion nears completion. TSMC and UMC trading below average PE ratios....

Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...