Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our NAV analysis of Doosan Corp suggests an implied market cap of 3.9 trillion won or implied price per share of 235,039 won which is 17.2% lower than current price.</li>
<li>Given the lack of upside relative to its NAV, we have a Negative View of Doosan Corp. </li>
<li>Considering Doosan Group's repeated corporate governance concerns in the past decade, our holdco discount estimate of 50% is probably generous. </li>
</ul>


Our NAV analysis of Doosan Corp suggests an implied market cap of 3.9 trillion won or implied price per share of 235,039 won which is 17.2% lower than current price.
Given the lack of upside relative to its NAV, we have a Negative View of Doosan Corp. 
Considering Doosan Group's repeated corporate governance concerns in the past decade, our holdco discount estimate of 50% is probably generous. 


Doosan Corp - NAV Valuation Analysis Amid Index Rebalance Expectations

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I’m focusing on the price action of LG Corp when LG CNS enters the KOSPI 200 IT sector, causing LG Corp to be removed from the index.</li>
<li>With LG Corp's 6% weight, its removal could trigger ETF rebalancing (TIGER), leading to an outflow exceeding twice the usual daily trading volume.</li>
<li>If LG CNS misses Fast Entry, it’ll enter in December, not June. We’ll time our short position on LG Corp to align with passive outflows during that window.</li>
</ul>


I’m focusing on the price action of LG Corp when LG CNS enters the KOSPI 200 IT sector, causing LG Corp to be removed from the index.
With LG Corp's 6% weight, its removal could trigger ETF rebalancing (TIGER), leading to an outflow exceeding twice the usual daily trading volume.
If LG CNS misses Fast Entry, it’ll enter in December, not June. We’ll time our short position on LG Corp to align with passive outflows during that window.


The Unexpected Passive Trade from the LG CNS IPO: Short LG Corp

<ul>
<li>On 6 January, LG Corp announced that it plans to purchase 250 billion won worth of LG Electronics and LG Chem from 6 January to 7 March 2025.</li>
<li>The share buybacks would represent 1.5% and 0.7% of LG Chem and LG Electronics' market cap, respectively.</li>
<li>Our base case NAV valuation analysis of LG Corp suggests implied NAV of 14.7 trillion won or NAV per share of 93,430 won, which is 25% higher than current price.</li>
</ul>


On 6 January, LG Corp announced that it plans to purchase 250 billion won worth of LG Electronics and LG Chem from 6 January to 7 March 2025.
The share buybacks would represent 1.5% and 0.7% of LG Chem and LG Electronics' market cap, respectively.
Our base case NAV valuation analysis of LG Corp suggests implied NAV of 14.7 trillion won or NAV per share of 93,430 won, which is 25% higher than current price.


LG Corp Plans to Buy 250 Billion Won of LG Chem and LG Electronics + 2 Major LG Group IPOs in 2025

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-cns-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35945:1" rel="noopener">LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS)</a>, the IT service unit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a>, seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lg-cns-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:170085" rel="noopener">LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lg-cns-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:171361" rel="noopener">LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that LG CNS is attractive in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
We previously discussed the IPO in LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case and LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case.
We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that LG CNS is attractive in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-cns-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35945:1" rel="noopener">LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS)</a>, the IT service unit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a>, seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lg-cns-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:170085" rel="noopener">LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on fading growth momentum, mid-tier revenue growth, weak non-AI growth, high contract assets, bottom-tier FCF margin and large share overhang. </li>
</ul>



LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
In LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on fading growth momentum, mid-tier revenue growth, weak non-AI growth, high contract assets, bottom-tier FCF margin and large share overhang. 


South Korea

LG Corp. is a holding company, which operates subsidiaries including LG Electronics, LG Household & Health Care, LG Chem Ltd., and Dacom Corp. The Company's main business areas are electronics, chemicals, and household products manufacturing and telecommunications services.

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LG Corp (003550 KS)

Doosan Corp - NAV Valuation Analysis Amid Index Rebalance Expectations

Our NAV analysis of Doosan Corp suggests an implied market cap of 3.9 trillion won or implied price per share of 235,039 won which is 17.2% lower...

Douglas Kim

The Unexpected Passive Trade from the LG CNS IPO: Short LG Corp

This post dives into the unexpected passive trading play triggered by the LG CNS IPO, highlighting the potential short opportunity on LG Corp as a...

Sanghyun Park

LG Corp Plans to Buy 250 Billion Won of LG Chem and LG Electronics + 2 Major LG Group IPOs in 2025

On 6 January, LG Corp announced that it plans to purchase 250 billion won worth of LG Electronics and LG Chem from 6 January to 7 March 2025.

Douglas Kim

LG CNS IPO: Valuation Insights

We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that LG CNS is attractive in the IPO price range, and we would participate...

Arun George

LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on fading growth momentum, mid-tier revenue growth, weak non-AI growth, high contract assets, bottom-tier FCF margin and large...

Arun George

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