Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

<p>The UK’s referendum to exit Europe and the ensuing gyrations in global markets warned us against complacency in the face of event risk. Vigilance for unexpected surges in risk-aversion is all the more merited given some signals that the flood of ever-greater liquidity from developed country central banks may soon be peaking.</p><p>If unconventional policy bears diminishing returns, as cautioned recently in reports from the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2015/060815.pdf" target="_blank">IMF</a> (citing spillover risks) and <a href="http://www.bis.org/publ/work570.pdf" target="_blank">BIS</a>, it may be possible that either risks associated with over-accommodation or the more manageable risks of exit will inevitably drive volatility higher.  </p><p>We take stock of some of the most obvious event risks, as well as risks not yet associated with a specific event or events that might also emerge as catalysts in latter 2016, and their potential impact on currency and asset markets.</p>

The UK’s referendum to exit Europe and the ensuing gyrations in global markets warned us against complacency in the face of event risk. Vigilance for unexpected surges in risk-aversion is all the more merited given some signals that the flood of ever-greater liquidity from developed country central banks may soon be peaking.If unconventional policy bears diminishing returns, as cautioned recently in reports from the IMF (citing spillover risks) and BIS, it may be possible that either risks associated with over-accommodation or the more manageable risks of exit will inevitably drive volatility higher.  We take stock of some of the most obvious event risks, as well as risks not yet associated with a specific event or events that might also emerge as catalysts in latter 2016, and their potential impact on currency and asset markets.

Event Risks, Catalysts and Volatility in Latter 2016

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Rewind twelve months, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11649" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1">Murata</a>'s decade-old acquisitions strategy was paying off. Acquisitions such as C&amp;D's power division (2007) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15933" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1">Renesas</a>'s high power amp business (2012) meant that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11649" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1">Murata</a> was unique as an RF components manufacturer in being able to supply all the key components of a handset's "front end module" (FEM) itself. This was expected to give <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11649" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1">Murata</a> a significant cost advantage over its competitors once these businesses were fully integrated, and seemingly from July 2015 that was…</p>

Rewind twelve months, and Murata's decade-old acquisitions strategy was paying off. Acquisitions such as C&amp;D's power division (2007) and Renesas's high power amp business (2012) meant that Murata was unique as an RF components manufacturer in being able to supply all the key components of a handset's "front end module" (FEM) itself. This was expected to give Murata a significant cost advantage over its competitors once these businesses were fully integrated, and seemingly from July 2015 that was…

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong><em>Pokémon GO and the world of container shipping as we knew it</em></strong></p><blockquote><p> <em>“Dad, have you heard of <strong>Pokémon Go</strong>, can kids play it, when can I download it”, “Dad, for this birthday can you download for me the <strong>Lego Marvel's Avengers </strong>game”, “ Mom, can you please download this character for me”. </em></p></blockquote><p><em>That is my 9-year-old son asking for his reward after he has done his homework. A portion of his pocket money is now spent on the iTunes app store, that is the share lost by traditional retailers. He does love Lego and buys</em>…</p>

Pokémon GO and the world of container shipping as we knew it “Dad, have you heard of Pokémon Go, can kids play it, when can I download it”, “Dad, for this birthday can you download for me the Lego Marvel's Avengers game”, “ Mom, can you please download this character for me”. That is my 9-year-old son asking for his reward after he has done his homework. A portion of his pocket money is now spent on the iTunes app store, that is the share lost by traditional retailers. He does love Lego and buys…

DMER Shorts: Pokémon GO and the World of Container Shipping as We Knew It

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<p>In my recent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yamaha-motors-nikkei-225-change-non-negligible" target="_blank">piece</a> on the Nikkei 225 changes, I quickly moved to say the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7411" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1">Yamaha Motors (7272 JP)</a>  Nikkei 225 inclusion was non-negligible. The shares are up since then. </p><p>Because I expect a lot of the "active" money in the stock is likely reluctant to sell what they believe to be a GARP/growth stock, and the "non-active" ownership is significant (i.e. the shares who are unlikely to sell an index inclusion pop), I expect that it could have a decent pop.</p><p>And I expect that those who short into it may…</p>

In my recent piece on the Nikkei 225 changes, I quickly moved to say the Yamaha Motors (7272 JP)  Nikkei 225 inclusion was non-negligible. The shares are up since then. Because I expect a lot of the "active" money in the stock is likely reluctant to sell what they believe to be a GARP/growth stock, and the "non-active" ownership is significant (i.e. the shares who are unlikely to sell an index inclusion pop), I expect that it could have a decent pop.And I expect that those who short into it may…

Sharp: TOPIX Exclusion an Interesting (Albeit Scary) Opportunity

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<div data-offset-key="7l4nc-0-0">
<h2 data-offset-key="7l4nc-0-0"><strong><span data-offset-key="7l4nc-0-0"><span data-text="true">First look at 2Q16 results</span></span></strong></h2>
<div data-offset-key="927b3-0-0"><span data-offset-key="927b3-0-0"> </span></div>
<div data-offset-key="ek26l-0-0"><span data-offset-key="ek26l-0-0"><span data-text="true">Apple reported 2Q16 sales of US$42.358bn, down 16% q/q and 15% y/y, which was in line with earlier mid points sales guidance of US$42bn. 2Q16 operating margin contracted to 23.9% from 1Q16's 27.7% and 2Q15's 28.4%, which was 0.6ppts higher than earlier guidance.</span></span></div>
</div><div data-offset-key="aeg09-0-0"><strong><span data-offset-key="aeg09-0-0"> </span></strong></div><h2 data-offset-key="aeg09-0-0"><strong><span data-offset-key="aeg09-0-0">Guides slightly better 3Q16 sales</span></strong></h2><div data-offset-key="7l4nc-0-0"><div data-offset-key="dttfm-0-0">
<span data-offset-key="dttfm-0-0"><span data-text="true">For 3Q16, Apple guides sales growth of 7.4-12.1% q/q (mid point of 9.8% q/q) but decline of 4.3-8.3% y/y to US$45.5-47.5bn, 2% higher than Bloomberg consensus' estimates. Gross</span></span>…</div></div>


First look at 2Q16 results
 
Apple reported 2Q16 sales of US$42.358bn, down 16% q/q and 15% y/y, which was in line with earlier mid points sales guidance of US$42bn. 2Q16 operating margin contracted to 23.9% from 1Q16's 27.7% and 2Q15's 28.4%, which was 0.6ppts higher than earlier guidance.
 Guides slightly better 3Q16 sales
For 3Q16, Apple guides sales growth of 7.4-12.1% q/q (mid point of 9.8% q/q) but decline of 4.3-8.3% y/y to US$45.5-47.5bn, 2% higher than Bloomberg consensus' estimates. Gross…

What Apple Guidance Says About Smartphone Demand?

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Event Risks, Catalysts and Volatility in Latter 2016

The UK’s referendum to exit Europe and the ensuing gyrations in global markets warned us against complacency in the face of event risk. Vigilance...

Naomi Fink

Can Murata Crack the FEM Market?

Rewind twelve months, and Murata's decade-old acquisitions strategy was paying off. Acquisitions such as C&D's power division (2007)...

Pelham Smithers Associates

DMER Shorts: Pokémon GO and the World of Container Shipping as We Knew It

Pokémon GO and the world of container shipping as we knew it “Dad, have you heard of Pokémon Go, can kids play it, when can I download it”, “Dad,...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Sharp: TOPIX Exclusion an Interesting (Albeit Scary) Opportunity

In my recent piece on the Nikkei 225 changes, I quickly moved to say the Yamaha Motors (7272 JP) Nikkei 225 inclusion was non-negligible. The...

Travis Lundy

What Apple Guidance Says About Smartphone Demand?

First look at 2Q16 results Apple reported 2Q16 sales of US$42.358bn, down 16% q/q and 15% y/y, which was in line with earlier mid points sales...

Andrew Lu

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