Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.</li>
<li>We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.
We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

Mirae Asset Securities / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we propose a pair trade between a basket of major securities stocks (long) versus banking stocks (short) in Korea.</li>
<li>We believe the five major securities stocks in Korea could continue to outperform the five major banking stocks in Korea over the next 6-12 months.</li>
<li>We present 3 major headwinds on the Korean banking sector and 4 major tailwinds on the Korean securities sector. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we propose a pair trade between a basket of major securities stocks (long) versus banking stocks (short) in Korea.
We believe the five major securities stocks in Korea could continue to outperform the five major banking stocks in Korea over the next 6-12 months.
We present 3 major headwinds on the Korean banking sector and 4 major tailwinds on the Korean securities sector. 


A Pair Trade (Basket) Of Korean Banks Vs Securities

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of May 9th which has an aggregated holding worth USD502.5bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD502mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of May 9th which has an aggregated holding worth USD502.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD502mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung Electronics.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 9th): SK Hynix, Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung Electronics

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD497.4bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD580mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Daewoo Shipbuilding, Kakao, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD497.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD580mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Daewoo Shipbuilding, Kakao, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 2nd): Daewoo Shipbuilding, Kakao, Samsung Electronics

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Daewoo Shipping &amp; Marine Engineering early in May 2023 agreed to takeover by Hanwah Group</li>
<li>Hanwah Ocean, the re-named entity, reported financial stress for years, a lumpy NPL for banks</li>
<li>C&amp;P CIQ data suggests that all four major Korean banks are creditors to Hanwah Ocean</li>
</ul>


Daewoo Shipping &amp; Marine Engineering early in May 2023 agreed to takeover by Hanwah Group
Hanwah Ocean, the re-named entity, reported financial stress for years, a lumpy NPL for banks
C&amp;P CIQ data suggests that all four major Korean banks are creditors to Hanwah Ocean


Korea's Large Banks & Hanwah Ocean - Credit Reversals or Overhang?

South Korea

Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd., a holding company, provides a full range of consumer and commercial banking-related financial services.  The company's main businesses include banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management to individuals, businesses, and other financial institutions.

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Shinhan Financial (055550 KS)

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

A Pair Trade (Basket) Of Korean Banks Vs Securities

In this insight, we propose a pair trade between a basket of major securities stocks (long) versus banking stocks (short) in Korea.

Douglas Kim

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 9th): SK Hynix, Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung Electronics.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 2nd): Daewoo Shipbuilding, Kakao, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Daewoo Shipbuilding, Kakao, Samsung Electronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Korea's Large Banks & Hanwah Ocean - Credit Reversals or Overhang?

News of ~USD740m placement, insight by Brian Freitas on this capital increase, it is a timely reminder of core credit metrics and concern for...

Daniel Tabbush

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