External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Liquidity shows early signs of improvement as SRBI yields fall and IndONIA drops; fiscal disbursement expected to lead recovery further.</li><li>BI is likely to maintain its dovish stance and have time to assess before proceeding with further rate cuts, given current liquidity conditions.</li><li>US tariff shift could shield Indonesia’s exports, but cheap imports threaten domestic market requiring policies intervention.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Liquidity shows early signs of improvement as SRBI yields fall and IndONIA drops; fiscal disbursement expected to lead recovery further.BI is likely to maintain its dovish stance and have time to assess before proceeding with further rate cuts, given current liquidity conditions.US tariff shift could shield Indonesia’s exports, but cheap imports threaten domestic market requiring policies intervention.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: The Tailwinds and Trade-Off

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Market review: Following 3 weeks of negative performances, JCI staged a rebound of +2.7% w-w, outperforming majority of the EM peers.</li><li>The index’s performance was driven by the large-cap sectors: Banks (+3.1% w-w), Telco (+2.7% w-w) as well as laggard sectors namely Poultry (+7.7% w-w), Cement (+4.5%), and Tower (+4.1%), indicating likelihood of technical rebound amid still limited catalysts.</li><li>Foreign investors remain net sellers in the market with -US$115mn of outflow. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market review: Following 3 weeks of negative performances, JCI staged a rebound of +2.7% w-w, outperforming majority of the EM peers.The index’s performance was driven by the large-cap sectors: Banks (+3.1% w-w), Telco (+2.7% w-w) as well as laggard sectors namely Poultry (+7.7% w-w), Cement (+4.5%), and Tower (+4.1%), indicating likelihood of technical rebound amid still limited catalysts.Foreign investors remain net sellers in the market with -US$115mn of outflow. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the week – JCI, LQ45, and IDX80 YTD Performance

<ul><li>Average coal prices YTD are below our expectations, driven by weak imports amid strong domestic production in China and India.</li><li>While current prices already near cost support levels, ST price rebound may be capped by weak imports as restocking only starts by end of 3Q.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating on the sector with preferences for UNTR&gt; ADRO&gt; AADI&gt; ITMG&gt; PTBA</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Average coal prices YTD are below our expectations, driven by weak imports amid strong domestic production in China and India.While current prices already near cost support levels, ST price rebound may be capped by weak imports as restocking only starts by end of 3Q.We maintain a Neutral rating on the sector with preferences for UNTR&gt; ADRO&gt; AADI&gt; ITMG&gt; PTBAContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal: Coal Price Downside May Be Limited, but Weak Demand May Cap ST Rebound (NEUTRAL)

<ul><li>Market review: JCI ended the week up 0.7% w-w, outperforming majority of EM peers.</li><li>Amid negative performances from the big sectors (Banks +0.5%, Telco -2.5% Consumer Staples -1.8% w-w), JCI’s positive return for the week was driven by Oil &amp; Gas (+10.6% w-w), Cement (+7.8% w-w) and Industrial Estate (+4.6% w-w).</li><li>In line with the majority of EM peers, foreign investors flow into JCI was a net positive (US$80mn), with mixed flows into large-cap banks (except for BBRI), TLKM, and metals (ANTM and BRMS). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market review: JCI ended the week up 0.7% w-w, outperforming majority of EM peers.Amid negative performances from the big sectors (Banks +0.5%, Telco -2.5% Consumer Staples -1.8% w-w), JCI’s positive return for the week was driven by Oil &amp; Gas (+10.6% w-w), Cement (+7.8% w-w) and Industrial Estate (+4.6% w-w).In line with the majority of EM peers, foreign investors flow into JCI was a net positive (US$80mn), with mixed flows into large-cap banks (except for BBRI), TLKM, and metals (ANTM and BRMS). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Telco Sector 5-Year EV/EBITDA

<ul><li>We continue to expect coal price to normalize and forecast Newcastle price at US$110/t in FY25, driven by growth in Indonesia’s export.</li><li>Amid the projected decline in coal prices, we forecast earnings for Indonesian coal miners to fall by 25-33% in FY25. </li><li>We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We continue to expect coal price to normalize and forecast Newcastle price at US$110/t in FY25, driven by growth in Indonesia’s export.Amid the projected decline in coal prices, we forecast earnings for Indonesian coal miners to fall by 25-33% in FY25. We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal: Steady Dividend Stream to Cushion Normalizing Coal Price...

Indonesia

PT United Tractors Tbk distributes and leases construction machinery including Komatsu, Nissan Diesel, Scania, Bomag, Valmet, and Tadano brands.  The Company also provides contract mining services, and trades and assembles heavy equipment.

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United Tractors (UNTR IJ)

Macro Strategy: The Tailwinds and Trade-Off

Liquidity shows early signs of improvement as SRBI yields fall and IndONIA drops; fiscal disbursement expected to lead recovery further.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the week – JCI, LQ45, and IDX80 YTD Performance

Market review: Following 3 weeks of negative performances, JCI staged a rebound of +2.7% w-w, outperforming majority of the EM peers.

BRI Danareksa Research

Coal: Coal Price Downside May Be Limited, but Weak Demand May Cap ST Rebound (NEUTRAL)

Average coal prices YTD are below our expectations, driven by weak imports amid strong domestic production in China and India.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Telco Sector 5-Year EV/EBITDA

The week’s positive performance brought JCI to a 1.2% YTD increase, better than majority of ASEAN EM peers, while foreign investors were still at...

BRI Danareksa Research

Coal: Steady Dividend Stream to Cushion Normalizing Coal Price...

We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).

BRI Danareksa Research

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