Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200. </li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200. 
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Clear Signs of Pre-Positioning; Stay Away from the Crowds

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> has overshot the mark.</li>
<li>KKR's lock up in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.</li>
<li>Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a>. That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) has overshot the mark.
KKR's lock up in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.
Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from Santos Ltd (STO AU). That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

<ul>
<li>I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emeco-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8126:1" rel="noopener">Emeco Holdings (EHL AU)</a> appear to be in the crosshairs. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartpay-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45153:1" rel="noopener">SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soft99-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18486:1" rel="noopener">Soft99 (4464 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ci-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26170:1" rel="noopener">Ci Medical (3540 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. Although ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) and Emeco Holdings (EHL AU) appear to be in the crosshairs. 
Key updates/news took place on SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Soft99 (4464 JP), and Ci Medical (3540 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

<ul>
<li>Back on the 23rd June, eftpos terminal provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartpay-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45153:1" rel="noopener">SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU/NZ)</a> entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift4-payments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28965:1" rel="noopener">Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)</a>.</li>
<li>Shift4 is offering NZ$1.20, a 90.5% premium to undisturbed. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards. Microequities with 13.3% of shares out, is supportive.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 14th October, and expected implementation on or before the 4th November. The IE (Calibre) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
</ul>


Back on the 23rd June, eftpos terminal provider SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU/NZ) entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed withShift4 Payments (FOUR US).
Shift4 is offering NZ$1.20, a 90.5% premium to undisturbed. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards. Microequities with 13.3% of shares out, is supportive.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 14th October, and expected implementation on or before the 4th November. The IE (Calibre) says "fair &amp; reasonable".


SmartPay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): 14th October Vote On Shift4's Offer

<ul>
<li>I tally 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings (2389 JP)</a>. Also, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jilin-jiutai-rural-comm-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23735:1" rel="noopener">Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topcon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:738:1" rel="noopener">Topcon Corp (7732 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-battery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6513:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa Battery (6937 JP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


I tally 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Mandom Corp (4917 JP) and Digital Holdings (2389 JP). Also, Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
Key updates/news took place on PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK), Topcon Corp (7732 JP), and Furukawa Battery (6937 JP).



(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Evergrande Property Services, Mandom, Digital Hold., Topcon, Furukawa Battery

Australia

Santos Limited explores for and produces natural gas, crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquid petroleum gas.  The Company conducts major onshore and offshore petroleum exploration activities at oil and gas fields in Australia (Cooper/Eromanga Basins), the United States (Gulf of Mexico), Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. The Company also transports crude oil by pipeline.

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Santos Ltd (STO AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Clear Signs of Pre-Positioning; Stay Away from the Crowds

There are clear signs of positioning among some of the high-impact expected ADDs/DELs and staying away from such overcrowded bets might be a good...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

SmartPay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): 14th October Vote On Shift4's Offer

Trading at a 3.4%/30.1% gross/annual. spread, ostensibly reflecting various large shareholders on the register who could push back on terms. If...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Evergrande Property Services, Mandom, Digital Hold., Topcon, Furukawa Battery

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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