Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Negara’s attractive valuations, its low PEG ratio, its improving returns and efficiency ratio stand out; pre- and post-provision returns edged higher, combined with high NPL coverage and healthy CET1 ratio</li>
<li>We remain positive on Mandiri for its attractive PE multiples, its premium returns, and its robust credit quality metrics; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio after mega-cap Bank Central Asia</li>
<li>Rakyat’s high structural cost of risk continues to weigh on its pre- and post-provision returns, with the latter being eroded further to 3Q24</li>
</ul>


Negara’s attractive valuations, its low PEG ratio, its improving returns and efficiency ratio stand out; pre- and post-provision returns edged higher, combined with high NPL coverage and healthy CET1 ratio
We remain positive on Mandiri for its attractive PE multiples, its premium returns, and its robust credit quality metrics; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio after mega-cap Bank Central Asia
Rakyat’s high structural cost of risk continues to weigh on its pre- and post-provision returns, with the latter being eroded further to 3Q24


Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) And Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)

<ul>
<li>Negara value attributes, its growth potential captured by its low PEG ratio and its improving efficiency ratio all stand out; pre- and post-provision returns edged higher, with high NPL coverage</li>
<li>We are also positive on Mandiri for its quality attributes, its premium returns, and its strong credit quality metrics; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio after mega-cap Bank Central Asia</li>
<li>Bank Mega has seen credit quality stabilise in 2Q24, but its returns are under pressure, with the efficiency ratio worsening steadily; cost of risk is likely to increase going forward</li>
</ul>


Negara value attributes, its growth potential captured by its low PEG ratio and its improving efficiency ratio all stand out; pre- and post-provision returns edged higher, with high NPL coverage
We are also positive on Mandiri for its quality attributes, its premium returns, and its strong credit quality metrics; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio after mega-cap Bank Central Asia
Bank Mega has seen credit quality stabilise in 2Q24, but its returns are under pressure, with the efficiency ratio worsening steadily; cost of risk is likely to increase going forward


Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ), the Value and Growth Pick

<ul>
<li>Bank Negara stands out versus its peers for its value attributes, its attractive PEG ratio, and its improving pre- and post-provision returns with top NPL coverage relative to its peers</li>
<li>Bank Mandiri remains a buy for its quality attributes, its premium returns, and its well-controlled CoR; Mandiri has a far better valuations-to-returns mix than mega-cap BCA </li>
<li>Bank Rakyat comes off the sell list; it registered improved pre-provision returns in 1Q24, and although cost of risk worsened, post-provision returns were maintained along with its NPL coverage ratio</li>
</ul>


Bank Negara stands out versus its peers for its value attributes, its attractive PEG ratio, and its improving pre- and post-provision returns with top NPL coverage relative to its peers
Bank Mandiri remains a buy for its quality attributes, its premium returns, and its well-controlled CoR; Mandiri has a far better valuations-to-returns mix than mega-cap BCA 
Bank Rakyat comes off the sell list; it registered improved pre-provision returns in 1Q24, and although cost of risk worsened, post-provision returns were maintained along with its NPL coverage ratio


Indonesian Banks Screener; Negara Stands Out on Value, Growth Potential and Improving Return Trends

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a new thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian digital themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.</li>
<li>This week we look at the changing fortunes of Fintech, as BNPL continues to show promise and P2P sinks deeper into difficult territory, exemplified by Investree's troubles. </li>
<li>We also examine PropertyGuru's results, which reveal its vulnerability to markets and we look at Indonesia's increasingly competitive logistics space, with a return to offline activity changing market focus. </li>
</ul>


CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a new thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian digital themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.
This week we look at the changing fortunes of Fintech, as BNPL continues to show promise and P2P sinks deeper into difficult territory, exemplified by Investree's troubles. 
We also examine PropertyGuru's results, which reveal its vulnerability to markets and we look at Indonesia's increasingly competitive logistics space, with a return to offline activity changing market focus. 


Cross ASEAN Ground Zero - BNPL Is the New P2P, PropertyGuru's Vulnerability, and Difficult Logistics

<ul>
<li>Bank Mandiri is our top pick for its quality attributes, its premium and growing pre- and post-provision returns; Mandiri provides a better valuations to returns mix than Bank Central Asia</li>
<li>Bank Negara is the value pick with its low PE multiples, its attractive PEG ratio, whilst also improving pre- and post-provision returns with cost of risk well controlled</li>
<li>Bank Rakyat registered worsening pre- and post-provision returns in 4Q23, with cost of risk worsening; this reflects its heavily MSME focused loan mix which keeps structural cost of risk high</li>
</ul>


Bank Mandiri is our top pick for its quality attributes, its premium and growing pre- and post-provision returns; Mandiri provides a better valuations to returns mix than Bank Central Asia
Bank Negara is the value pick with its low PE multiples, its attractive PEG ratio, whilst also improving pre- and post-provision returns with cost of risk well controlled
Bank Rakyat registered worsening pre- and post-provision returns in 4Q23, with cost of risk worsening; this reflects its heavily MSME focused loan mix which keeps structural cost of risk high


Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

Indonesia

PT Bank Permata Tbk provides commercial and foreign exchange banking services through a network of offices in Indonesia.  The Bank also performs custodianship and trusteeship services as well as manages pension funds.

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Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)

Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) And Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)

We like Negara and Mandiri; Negara stands out on valuation and is starting to deliver stronger returns, whilst Mandiri is attractive on PE...

Victor Galliano

Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ), the Value and Growth Pick

Negara is our top pick, Mandiri remains a buy; both banks have big valuation differentials with quality play BCA and they have lower structural...

Victor Galliano

Indonesian Banks Screener; Negara Stands Out on Value, Growth Potential and Improving Return Trends

Negara is our value pick, with improving returns and the best NPL coverage of the peer group, and we maintain Mandiri as a buy for its best...

Victor Galliano

Cross ASEAN Ground Zero - BNPL Is the New P2P, PropertyGuru's Vulnerability, and Difficult Logistics

This week we look at the changing fortunes of Fintech, as BNPL continues to show promise and P2P sinks deeper into difficult territory, exemplified...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) And Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)

​We like Negara and Mandiri; Negara stands out on valuation and is starting to deliver stronger returns, whilst Mandiri is attractive on PE...

Victor Galliano

Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ), the Value and Growth Pick

Negara is our top pick, Mandiri remains a buy; both banks have big valuation differentials with quality play BCA and they have lower structural...

Victor Galliano

Indonesian Banks Screener; Negara Stands Out on Value, Growth Potential and Improving Return Trends

Negara is our value pick, with improving returns and the best NPL coverage of the peer group, and we maintain Mandiri as a buy for its best...

Victor Galliano

Cross ASEAN Ground Zero - BNPL Is the New P2P, PropertyGuru's Vulnerability, and Difficult Logistics

This week we look at the changing fortunes of Fintech, as BNPL continues to show promise and P2P sinks deeper into difficult territory, exemplified...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

​Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....

Victor Galliano

We like Negara and Mandiri; Negara stands out on valuation and is starting to deliver stronger returns, whilst Mandiri is attractive on PE...

Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....