Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680" rel="noopener">Arun George</a> have recently written extensively about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>  proposed takeover. Read the details in their insights.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> is involved: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toyota-motor-7203-jp-tactical-view-privatization-momentum-builds-ready-to-rally" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2 weeks ago we predicted a rally</a>, and the rally did happen and went past our suggested profit target - time for an update.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> at the end of last week was overbought, according to our model. Any catalyst could trigger a sell off from here but let's analyze the models....</li>
</ul>



Travis Lundy and Arun George have recently written extensively about Toyota Industries (6201 JP)  proposed takeover. Read the details in their insights.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is involved: 2 weeks ago we predicted a rally, and the rally did happen and went past our suggested profit target - time for an update.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) at the end of last week was overbought, according to our model. Any catalyst could trigger a sell off from here but let's analyze the models....


Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Outlook Amid Uncertainty Over Toyota Industries Privatization Bid

<ul>
<li>Since April 28th we traced a path for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s stock price, first <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toyota-7203-jp-tactical-outlook-following-toyota-industries-6201-jp-privatization-rumors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (forecast: going down) and then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toyota-7203-jp-post-earnings-outlook-amid-180b-estimated-u-s-tariff-cost" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (forecast: potential 2-week pullback to 2578).</li>
<li>Last week <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>pulled back to 2598 (pretty close to our 2578 target). The stocks closed down for 2 weeks, as predicted. A rally may be starting.
</li>
<li>
Rumors of an acceleratingof privatization bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>could act as a fresh catalyst for the stock—aligning with our model’s forecast from May 8th.
</li>
</ul>


Since April 28th we traced a path for Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s stock price, first here (forecast: going down) and then here (forecast: potential 2-week pullback to 2578).
Last week Toyota Motor (7203 JP)pulled back to 2598 (pretty close to our 2578 target). The stocks closed down for 2 weeks, as predicted. A rally may be starting.


Rumors of an acceleratingof privatization bid for Toyota Industries (6201 JP)could act as a fresh catalyst for the stock—aligning with our model’s forecast from May 8th.



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical View:  Privatization Momentum Builds — Ready to Rally?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> expects U.S. tariffs, material costs and a weak(er) dollar to dent profits.  The automaker estimated the levies directly costing it 180 billion yen in April/May.</li>
<li>The stock fell after the company reported its fiscal-fourth-quarter results on Thursday. Guidance for the coming year came in lower than expected, with tariffs taking a bite out of profits.</li>
<li>In a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toyota-7203-jp-tactical-outlook-following-toyota-industries-6201-jp-privatization-rumors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> we flagged the stock as overbought; those model targets remain valid. Here, we analyze updated support to gauge the pullback's potential depth.
</li>
</ul>



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) expects U.S. tariffs, material costs and a weak(er) dollar to dent profits.  The automaker estimated the levies directly costing it 180 billion yen in April/May.
The stock fell after the company reported its fiscal-fourth-quarter results on Thursday. Guidance for the coming year came in lower than expected, with tariffs taking a bite out of profits.
In a previous insight we flagged the stock as overbought; those model targets remain valid. Here, we analyze updated support to gauge the pullback's potential depth.



Toyota (7203 JP) Post-Earnings Outlook Amid ¥180B Estimated U.S. Tariff Cost

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> said in a Tokyo stock exchange filing on Saturday that it is exploring the possibility of investing in a potential buyout of key supplier Toyota Industries.</li>
<li>Bloomberg reported Friday that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>  Chairman Akio Toyoda and his family proposed acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>  in a possible 6 trillion yen ($42 billion) transaction.</li>
<li>The stocks of both companies were rising on Monday, this insight focus on tactical positioning on Toyota Motor:the stock appears very OVERBOUGHT according to our models.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said in a Tokyo stock exchange filing on Saturday that it is exploring the possibility of investing in a potential buyout of key supplier Toyota Industries.
Bloomberg reported Friday that Toyota Motor (7203 JP)  Chairman Akio Toyoda and his family proposed acquiring Toyota Industries (6201 JP)  in a possible 6 trillion yen ($42 billion) transaction.
The stocks of both companies were rising on Monday, this insight focus on tactical positioning on Toyota Motor:the stock appears very OVERBOUGHT according to our models.


Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>It's unlikely that the transition to ‘company with audit committee’ will enhance the supervisory function, but it's likely to speed up the decision-making process by delegating authority to executive directors.</li>
<li>Instead of achieving 30% female board member and moving to Company with US-type 3 Committees at once, Toyota will implement Toyota's way firmly with BOD that is half independent directors.</li>
<li>The only way for Toyota, which faces several governance challenges, to uphold tradition of Toyoda family being at the top of management is to make the returns expected by investors.</li>
</ul>


It's unlikely that the transition to ‘company with audit committee’ will enhance the supervisory function, but it's likely to speed up the decision-making process by delegating authority to executive directors.
Instead of achieving 30% female board member and moving to Company with US-type 3 Committees at once, Toyota will implement Toyota's way firmly with BOD that is half independent directors.
The only way for Toyota, which faces several governance challenges, to uphold tradition of Toyoda family being at the top of management is to make the returns expected by investors.


The Toyota Way Is Not to Rush, but to Gain a Foothold and Proceed with Caution

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)