Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi's policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan's parliament.</li>
<li>China's retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.</li>
<li>We expect China's response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.</li>
</ul>


Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi's policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan's parliament.
China's retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.
We expect China's response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.


Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>By Q4 2025, Taiwan's wafer foundry industry will see advancements, driven by Foxconn's partnership with OpenAI.</li><li>Anthropic is targeting profitability by 2028, while OpenAI could incur losses of up to $74 billion in the same timeframe.</li><li>Toyota plans significant US expansion in the automotive sector, while Samsung Display starts mass production of OLEDoS displays.</li></ul>

By Q4 2025, Taiwan's wafer foundry industry will see advancements, driven by Foxconn's partnership with OpenAI.Anthropic is targeting profitability by 2028, while OpenAI could incur losses of up to $74 billion in the same timeframe.Toyota plans significant US expansion in the automotive sector, while Samsung Display starts mass production of OLEDoS displays.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Nov-2025): Taiwan wafer foundry outlook for Q4 2025.

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Along with other Hong Kong stocks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minth-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9232:1" rel="noopener">Minth Group (425 HK)</a> share price took a beating this year that is caused by market sentiment rather than fundamentals. </li>
<li>They launched a robot-making factory in Serbia, a JV in Indonesia, that in the near term drained FCF but revenues and earnings are still growing. </li>
<li>With PER 8x, EV/EBITDA 6x, and PBR&lt;1, Minth has become a value stock that calls for  re-rating. </li>
</ul>


Along with other Hong Kong stocks, Minth Group (425 HK) share price took a beating this year that is caused by market sentiment rather than fundamentals. 
They launched a robot-making factory in Serbia, a JV in Indonesia, that in the near term drained FCF but revenues and earnings are still growing. 
With PER 8x, EV/EBITDA 6x, and PBR&lt;1, Minth has become a value stock that calls for  re-rating. 


<ul>
<li>In Q4 2025, the global server market sees significant changes with E Ink and C3 launching Pixel Paper Labs in Sri Lanka.</li>
<li>China's rare earth export controls are tightening, leading to major hiring initiatives that impact global supply chains.</li>
<li>Nintendo's FY25 forecast improves due to strong Switch 2 sales, while Tesla faces challenges in India due to high import duties.</li>
</ul>


In Q4 2025, the global server market sees significant changes with E Ink and C3 launching Pixel Paper Labs in Sri Lanka.
China's rare earth export controls are tightening, leading to major hiring initiatives that impact global supply chains.
Nintendo's FY25 forecast improves due to strong Switch 2 sales, while Tesla faces challenges in India due to high import duties.


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Nov-2025): Global Server Market Forecast, Q4 2025

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Global funds remain structurally underweight Asia, with Japan and China &amp; HK widely held but still below index weight; India stands out as the clearest consensus underweight.</li>
<li>Taiwan Technology dominates sector positioning as the largest regional overweight, while Australian and Asian Financials are structural underweights; rotation shows China sectors and Japan Financials/Industrials gaining traction.</li>
<li>Stock leadership is highly concentrated in TSMC, now owned by 61% of funds; second-tier names stagnate while SK Hynix, BYD, and Sea Ltd attract rising investor participation.</li>
</ul>


Global funds remain structurally underweight Asia, with Japan and China &amp; HK widely held but still below index weight; India stands out as the clearest consensus underweight.
Taiwan Technology dominates sector positioning as the largest regional overweight, while Australian and Asian Financials are structural underweights; rotation shows China sectors and Japan Financials/Industrials gaining traction.
Stock leadership is highly concentrated in TSMC, now owned by 61% of funds; second-tier names stagnate while SK Hynix, BYD, and Sea Ltd attract rising investor participation.


Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

Japan is deploying missiles to an island near Taiwan in an escalation of its increased militarism toward China since the PM election last month....

David Mudd

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Nov-2025): Taiwan wafer foundry outlook for Q4 2025.

By Q4 2025, Taiwan's wafer foundry industry will advance with Foxconn and OpenAI's collaboration, while Anthropic targets profitability by 2028...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Minth (425): Even Cheaper This Year

Minth has become a value stock as earnings grew followed with increased CapEx that makes FCF tightened. In the meantime, they have built a robotic...

Henry Soediarko

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Nov-2025): Global Server Market Forecast, Q4 2025

In Q4 2025, the global server market sees E Ink's Pixel Paper Labs launch, China's rare earth export controls, Nintendo's FY25 forecast improves...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Global Fund Positioning in Asia

Global funds stay structurally underweight Asia, with Japan and China leading the way. Taiwan Tech dominates sector overweights, while TSMC tops...

Steven Holden

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