Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Demand Outlook: Demand momentum remains stable with a current order book of 320k units vs 264k units in Dec’21.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Semiconductor Shortages: The production during FY22 was constrained by a global shortage in the supply of electronic components because of which an estimated ~2.7 Lc units could not be produced.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Input costs: The management noted that while precious metal prices have cooled off, base metal prices have increased (steel in particular) and will lead to margin pressures in H1FY23E.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Demand Outlook: Demand momentum remains stable with a current order book of 320k units vs 264k units in Dec’21.Semiconductor Shortages: The production during FY22 was constrained by a global shortage in the supply of electronic components because of which an estimated ~2.7 Lc units could not be produced.Input costs: The management noted that while precious metal prices have cooled off, base metal prices have increased (steel in particular) and will lead to margin pressures in H1FY23E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maruti Suzuki - Beat on EBITDA; Growth Outlook Remains Strong

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>PVs – supply chain constraints to persist; demand holding strong: We expect PV volume to be slightly lower on MoM basis due to supply<br>side issues and higher monthly base.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>2Ws – demand revival remains muted: Domestic 2W dispatches are expected to improve on MoM basis, albeit at a slower pace, led by opening up of schools &amp; offices, beginning of marriage season and improving rural economics.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Tractors – moderating growth on a high base: We expect tractor demand to ease due to a high base.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

PVs – supply chain constraints to persist; demand holding strong: We expect PV volume to be slightly lower on MoM basis due to supply side issues and higher monthly base.2Ws – demand revival remains muted: Domestic 2W dispatches are expected to improve on MoM basis, albeit at a slower pace, led by opening up of schools &amp; offices, beginning of marriage season and improving rural economics.Tractors – moderating growth on a high base: We expect tractor demand to ease due to a high base.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Automobile Sales Estimates – 2Ws Rising from Dust; Demand Outlook for PVs and CVs Positive

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Today is the last day of the review period for the June review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a>. Changes become effective at the close on 17 June. </li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> is a close add on sector balance.</li>
<li>The impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">DRRD IN</a> will be higher than on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">TTMT IN</a>, in terms of days of ADV to trade and days of delivery volume that needs to change hands.</li>
</ul>


Today is the last day of the review period for the June review of the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX). Changes become effective at the close on 17 June. 
We see Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) and Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) replacing Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN). Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) is a close add on sector balance.
The impact on DRRD IN will be higher than on TTMT IN, in terms of days of ADV to trade and days of delivery volume that needs to change hands.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors Should Replace Dr. Reddy; Hindalco Is Close

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We expect auto demand (across segments) to revive on a low base relative to the peak of FY19, led by a pick-up in economic growth and expected rural revival.</li></ul><div><div><ul><li>We factor in 17/16/18% volume CAGRs for 2Ws/PVs/CVs over FY22-24E.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Key sectoral trends to watch out for include: (1) partial reversal in shift in mix towards premium-end vehicles as discretionary consumption from the average middle class consumer rebounds, with a pick-up in GDP; (2) EV penetration in scooters reaching 25% by FY25E and large OEMs emerging as dominant players; (3) current geopolitical conflict driving higher costs in the near term.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect auto demand (across segments) to revive on a low base relative to the peak of FY19, led by a pick-up in economic growth and expected rural revival.We factor in 17/16/18% volume CAGRs for 2Ws/PVs/CVs over FY22-24E.Key sectoral trends to watch out for include: (1) partial reversal in shift in mix towards premium-end vehicles as discretionary consumption from the average middle class consumer rebounds, with a pick-up in GDP; (2) EV penetration in scooters reaching 25% by FY25E and large OEMs emerging as dominant players; (3) current geopolitical conflict driving higher costs in the near term.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

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Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)

Screening for GEMs: June 2022

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Maruti Suzuki - Beat on EBITDA; Growth Outlook Remains Strong

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL) Q4FY22 performance came in ahead of our expectations on the margin front, aided by operating leverage benefits,...

Axis Direct

Automobile Sales Estimates – 2Ws Rising from Dust; Demand Outlook for PVs and CVs Positive

Based on our channel checks, we saw some improvement in 2W demand in April’22 while demand in CV and PV segments continued to remain robust.

Nirmal Bang

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors Should Replace Dr. Reddy; Hindalco Is Close

Tata Motors should replace Dr Reddy at the June rebalance. Hindalco is an alternate add on sector balance. Passives will need to trade 4-7 days of...

Brian Freitas

Autos: Time to relook

We expect auto demand (across segments) to revive on a low base relative to the peak of FY19, led by a pick-up in economic growth and expected...

HDFC Securities

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