Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Indian commercial vehicle industry witnessed a subdued performance in February 2025, with listed companies reporting modest sales figures.</li>
<li>This insight provides detailed analysis of sales performance of key players-<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)&amp; </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN).</a>
</li>
<li>Industry reports and management insights indicate that the commercial vehicle market is expected to remain largely stable in FY2025, with hopes for positive growth in FY2026.</li>
</ul>


The Indian commercial vehicle industry witnessed a subdued performance in February 2025, with listed companies reporting modest sales figures.
This insight provides detailed analysis of sales performance of key players-Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN),Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN),Ashok Leyland (AL IN),Eicher Motors (EIM IN)&amp; Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN).

Industry reports and management insights indicate that the commercial vehicle market is expected to remain largely stable in FY2025, with hopes for positive growth in FY2026.


February 2025: A Challenging Month for India’s Commercial Vehicle Industry

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Since October, FIIs have sold US$24.2 bn Indian stocks. DIIs have bought US$36bn. The market has been supported by the latter, benefitting from steady SIPs - now at US$3bn monthly.</li>
<li>India households' historical under-ownership of equities and the steady decline in interest rates and returns from property turned domestic investors towards equity. With Indian equities declining steadily, that could change.</li>
<li>Looking at DIIs' sector-wise ownership, we think if domestic MFs are forced to sell, then industrials, consumer discretionary, materials and to a lesser extent, financials could be at risk.</li>
</ul>


Since October, FIIs have sold US$24.2 bn Indian stocks. DIIs have bought US$36bn. The market has been supported by the latter, benefitting from steady SIPs - now at US$3bn monthly.
India households' historical under-ownership of equities and the steady decline in interest rates and returns from property turned domestic investors towards equity. With Indian equities declining steadily, that could change.
Looking at DIIs' sector-wise ownership, we think if domestic MFs are forced to sell, then industrials, consumer discretionary, materials and to a lesser extent, financials could be at risk.


Asian Equities: Which Sectors Could Suffer when Indian Domestics Sell?

<ul>
<li>Continuing the trend from December'24, wholesale volume growth in Jan'2025 remained strong in the passenger vehicle segment. This was driven by channel filling, and strong rural demand.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>,holding approximately 43% market share, reported growth in both the utility vehicle (UV) and compact SUV segments. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> reported 18% YoY growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> reported decline in volume growth. Tax initiatives introduced in recent Union Budget are expected to increase demand in medium term.</li>
</ul>


Continuing the trend from December'24, wholesale volume growth in Jan'2025 remained strong in the passenger vehicle segment. This was driven by channel filling, and strong rural demand.

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN),holding approximately 43% market share, reported growth in both the utility vehicle (UV) and compact SUV segments. Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) reported 18% YoY growth.

Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) &amp; Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) reported decline in volume growth. Tax initiatives introduced in recent Union Budget are expected to increase demand in medium term.


Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Passenger Vehicle Companies (January 2025)

<ul>
<li>The YTD FY2025 sales volume of commercial vehicle(CV) companies has been soft due to elections,sluggish government capital expenditure and less replacement demand. However,Jan2025 saw a modest uptick in wholesale volume.</li>
<li>Domestic volumes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a>,and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a> grew by 21%, 2%,and 3% YoY, respectively,while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> declined by 2%.</li>
<li>According to industry reports and management interviews, the commercial vehicle industry is expected to remain largely flat in FY2025 and hopes for a positive growth in FY2026.</li>
</ul>


The YTD FY2025 sales volume of commercial vehicle(CV) companies has been soft due to elections,sluggish government capital expenditure and less replacement demand. However,Jan2025 saw a modest uptick in wholesale volume.
Domestic volumes for Eicher Motors (EIM IN),Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN),and Ashok Leyland (AL IN) grew by 21%, 2%,and 3% YoY, respectively,while Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) declined by 2%.
According to industry reports and management interviews, the commercial vehicle industry is expected to remain largely flat in FY2025 and hopes for a positive growth in FY2026.


Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Commercial Vehicle Companies (January 2025)

<ul>
<li>The 9M FY2025 sales volume of commercial vehicle(CV) companies have been soft due to the elections, uneven monsoon and slow capital expenditure.</li>
<li>In December2024, sales showed varied performance across major players. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> saw slight YoY decline,while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a> &amp;<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> experienced growth in exports.</li>
<li>A recovery in sales is expected in Q4 FY2025 due to improved freight movement, resumption of construction and mining activities, and renewed government spending on infrastructural projects.</li>
</ul>


The 9M FY2025 sales volume of commercial vehicle(CV) companies have been soft due to the elections, uneven monsoon and slow capital expenditure.
In December2024, sales showed varied performance across major players. Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) saw slight YoY decline,while Ashok Leyland (AL IN) &amp;Eicher Motors (EIM IN) experienced growth in exports.
A recovery in sales is expected in Q4 FY2025 due to improved freight movement, resumption of construction and mining activities, and renewed government spending on infrastructural projects.


Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Commercial Vehicle Companies

India

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

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Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)

February 2025: A Challenging Month for India’s Commercial Vehicle Industry

Indian commercial vehicle industry had a subdued performance in Feb-25, with all listed companies reporting flat or negative growth. Analysis and...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Asian Equities: Which Sectors Could Suffer when Indian Domestics Sell?

Indian DIIs have bought $36bn since October vs $24.2bn FII selling. But if SIPs drop & DIIs are forced to sell some sectors may be at significant...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Passenger Vehicle Companies (January 2025)

Passenger Vehicle Retail Sales Update: The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations(FADA)’s January 2025 update shows a strong 15.53% YoY and...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Commercial Vehicle Companies (January 2025)

Retail Sales Update: Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations(FADA)’s January 2025 update shows a 8.22% YoY and 38.04% MoM rise in commercial...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Commercial Vehicle Companies

Commercial vehicle sales in FY2025 have been impacted by elections, monsoons, and slow capex, but a Q4 recovery is expected with improved freight...

Sreemant Dudhoria

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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February 2025: A Challenging Month for India’s Commercial Vehicle Industry

​Indian commercial vehicle industry had a subdued performance in Feb-25, with all listed companies reporting flat or negative growth. Analysis and...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Asian Equities: Which Sectors Could Suffer when Indian Domestics Sell?

​Indian DIIs have bought $36bn since October vs $24.2bn FII selling. But if SIPs drop & DIIs are forced to sell some sectors may be at significant...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Passenger Vehicle Companies (January 2025)

Passenger Vehicle Retail Sales Update: The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations(FADA)’s January 2025 update shows a strong 15.53% YoY and...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Commercial Vehicle Companies (January 2025)

Retail Sales Update: Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations(FADA)’s January 2025 update shows a 8.22% YoY and 38.04% MoM rise in commercial...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Commercial Vehicle Companies

​Commercial vehicle sales in FY2025 have been impacted by elections, monsoons, and slow capex, but a Q4 recovery is expected with improved freight...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Indian commercial vehicle industry had a subdued performance in Feb-25, with all listed companies reporting flat or negative growth. Analysis and...

Indian DIIs have bought $36bn since October vs $24.2bn FII selling. But if SIPs drop & DIIs are forced to sell some sectors may be at significant...

Commercial vehicle sales in FY2025 have been impacted by elections, monsoons, and slow capex, but a Q4 recovery is expected with improved freight...