Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Friday's Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ announced it would start selling down its holdings in ETFs and J-REITs at the pace of ¥620bn and ¥5.5bn/year, respectively. BIG NEWS!
</li>
<li>That is US$17mm of ETFs and US$150k of J-REITs per day. The BOJ suggests it is 0.05% of volume per day. That's close. SMALL EFFECT. 
</li>
<li>Given ¥15trln of buybacks and ¥5trln+ of dividend reinvestment + NISA account buys, plus ¥trlns of cross-holding selldowns/year, this is a total nothingburger, even if they up the pace.</li>
</ul>


In Friday's Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ announced it would start selling down its holdings in ETFs and J-REITs at the pace of ¥620bn and ¥5.5bn/year, respectively. BIG NEWS!

That is US$17mm of ETFs and US$150k of J-REITs per day. The BOJ suggests it is 0.05% of volume per day. That's close. SMALL EFFECT. 

Given ¥15trln of buybacks and ¥5trln+ of dividend reinvestment + NISA account buys, plus ¥trlns of cross-holding selldowns/year, this is a total nothingburger, even if they up the pace.


The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns - Basically a Nothing-Burger

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.</li>
<li>
Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.

Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.

Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 5th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,638m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric, Fast Retailing, Tokyo Electron, Nintendo, Hitachi, Kioxia, Lasertec, Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 5th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,638m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric, Fast Retailing, Tokyo Electron, Nintendo, Hitachi, Kioxia, Lasertec, Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 5th): Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric

Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-sep25-review-shift-3697-in-citizen-watch-7762-out-kokusai-misses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200727" rel="noopener">[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses</a>. </li>
<li>That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. </li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!</li>
</ul>


Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses. 
That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. 
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s valuation using Peter Lynch's PEGY ratio.</li>
<li>If Pop Mart misses current consensus estimates in 2026 and 2027 by 5%, this would result in PEGY ratio of 1.4x in 2026 which would make current valuations unattractive.</li>
<li>WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART'S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY 50% TO $75 BILLION FROM CURRENT LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 YEARS.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s valuation using Peter Lynch's PEGY ratio.
If Pop Mart misses current consensus estimates in 2026 and 2027 by 5%, this would result in PEGY ratio of 1.4x in 2026 which would make current valuations unattractive.
WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART'S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY 50% TO $75 BILLION FROM CURRENT LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 YEARS.


Pop Mart International - Valuation Using Peter Lynch's PEGY Ratio

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns - Basically a Nothing-Burger

The BOJ announced Friday 19 Sep 2025 it would start to sell its portfolio of ¥80trln of ETFs. That seems like a lot, but the pace is very slow to...

Travis Lundy

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. The BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually...

Gaudenz Schneider

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 5th): Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Nidec (6594 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

The Sep25 Nikkei 225 Periodic Review is announced. That means the Mar26 review can be predicted with a fair bit of accuracy. I see one ADD one...

Travis Lundy

Pop Mart International - Valuation Using Peter Lynch's PEGY Ratio

WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART'S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY 50% TO $75 BILLION FROM...

Douglas Kim

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