Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The impact of concerns over the tourism situation, which may escalate following the repatriation of Uyghurs to China in late February, is expected to be limited owing to the following factors: i) The proportion of tourists from the US and Japan, which have issued travel advisories for Thailand, is low at only 6% of total tourists.</li><li>ii) The government plans to revive the "We Travel Together" scheme during the low season (May-September), helping to mitigate the potential impact of the Uyghur issue, which is expected to affect the same period; historically, tourism conditions tend to normalize within 3-4 months after any unrest or unusual incidents.</li><li>iii) Stock prices typically decline and underperform the SET slightly at -2% to -3% in the one-week to two-month period following such events. </li></ul>

The impact of concerns over the tourism situation, which may escalate following the repatriation of Uyghurs to China in late February, is expected to be limited owing to the following factors: i) The proportion of tourists from the US and Japan, which have issued travel advisories for Thailand, is low at only 6% of total tourists.ii) The government plans to revive the "We Travel Together" scheme during the low season (May-September), helping to mitigate the potential impact of the Uyghur issue, which is expected to affect the same period; historically, tourism conditions tend to normalize within 3-4 months after any unrest or unusual incidents.iii) Stock prices typically decline and underperform the SET slightly at -2% to -3% in the one-week to two-month period following such events. 

Tourism and Airline Sectors - Expect Limited Impact from Uyghur Repatriation

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We initiate coverage on AAV with a Neutral rating. While we have a positive view on its fundamentals, with the fair value offering upside of +14%, we remain concerned about its long-term performance, which is expected to grow by only +11%, below the industry average of +15%.</li><li>In the short term, however, we expect the stock price to improve.</li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">The short-term catalyst is the strong growth in 4Q24E core profit YoY </span>and QoQ, driven by seasonal factors and lower fuel costs. </li></ul>

We initiate coverage on AAV with a Neutral rating. While we have a positive view on its fundamentals, with the fair value offering upside of +14%, we remain concerned about its long-term performance, which is expected to grow by only +11%, below the industry average of +15%.In the short term, however, we expect the stock price to improve.The short-term catalyst is the strong growth in 4Q24E core profit YoY and QoQ, driven by seasonal factors and lower fuel costs. 

Asia Aviation - Stock Price Reflects Strong Performance, with the ERP Having Risen Significantly

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 126% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 34%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 126% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 34%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 47

<ul><li>The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.</li><li>The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.</li><li>The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. </li></ul>

The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. 

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 stocks added to our portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 249% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 39%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 stocks added to our portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 249% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 39%


Thailand

Asia Aviation PCL owns a budget airline.  The airline offers low fare flights, online booking, hospitality packages, and courier and cargo services. Asia Aviation serves travelers throughout Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

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Asia Aviation (AAV TB)

Tourism and Airline Sectors - Expect Limited Impact from Uyghur Repatriation

We maintain a Neutral view on the sector and select CENTEL as the top pick (Outperform; TP at Bt39.00), given its stronger-than-peer earnings...

Krungthai XSpring

Asia Aviation - Stock Price Reflects Strong Performance, with the ERP Having Risen Significantly

While we have a positive view on its fundamentals, with the fair value offering upside of +14%, we remain concerned about its long-term performance,

Krungthai XSpring

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 47

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new...

A. Stotz Investment Research

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting...

Krungthai XSpring

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 48

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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