Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab Holdings</a> looks set to move toward cashflow breakeven in 2H2024 having hit adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 3Q2023 as it successfully struck a delicate balance between growth and profitability.</li>
<li>The sale of 75% of Tokopedia by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> may mean more intense competition in Indonesia as it focuses on online delivery services but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> is well-positioned to deal with this.</li>
<li>2024 will see the potential completion of the Transcab deal plus a potential acquisition in food delivery increasing scale and competitiveness. Valuations are attractive relative to growth and financial position.</li>
</ul>



Grab Holdings looks set to move toward cashflow breakeven in 2H2024 having hit adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 3Q2023 as it successfully struck a delicate balance between growth and profitability.
The sale of 75% of Tokopedia by GoTo may mean more intense competition in Indonesia as it focuses on online delivery services but Grab is well-positioned to deal with this.
2024 will see the potential completion of the Transcab deal plus a potential acquisition in food delivery increasing scale and competitiveness. Valuations are attractive relative to growth and financial position.


Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - Risks and Rewards in 2024

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramayana-lestari-sentosa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12266:1" rel="noopener">Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pakuwon-jati-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8550:1" rel="noopener">Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-foods-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16131:1" rel="noopener">CP FOODS (CPF TB)</a>, and Thai Credit Bank IPO. </li>
<li>The was also a strategy piece on Indonesia as the pre-election jostling heats up and a macro insight on Thailand after the new PM's maiden policy speech, which was underwhelming.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ), Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS IJ), Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ), CP FOODS (CPF TB), and Thai Credit Bank IPO. 
The was also a strategy piece on Indonesia as the pre-election jostling heats up and a macro insight on Thailand after the new PM's maiden policy speech, which was underwhelming.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo Initiatives, Ramayana Lestari, and Indonesia Strategy.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gudang-garam-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:722:1" rel="noopener">Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a> in the LQ45 Index next week.</li>
<li>There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.</li>
</ul>



Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) will replace Timah Persero (TINS IJ) and Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ) in the LQ45 Index next week.
There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ). 
There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.


​​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media</a> had strong start to the year in terms of audience share but advertising revenues were slightly disappointing with a poor showing for the overall market.</li>
<li>Advertising revenues were impacted by a slowdown in e-commerce activity but overall the market adjusted downwards with 2Q expected to be slow but with a strong recovery expected in 2H2023.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media</a> continues to invest in original content but less aggressively, with cashflows expected to be stronger in 2023. There are also potential catalysts ahead from listing subsidiaries. </li>
</ul>



PT Surya Citra Media had strong start to the year in terms of audience share but advertising revenues were slightly disappointing with a poor showing for the overall market.
Advertising revenues were impacted by a slowdown in e-commerce activity but overall the market adjusted downwards with 2Q expected to be slow but with a strong recovery expected in 2H2023.

PT Surya Citra Media continues to invest in original content but less aggressively, with cashflows expected to be stronger in 2023. There are also potential catalysts ahead from listing subsidiaries. 


PT Surya Citra Media (SCMA IJ) - Catalytic Converter

Indonesia

PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk operates television, telecommunications and computer businesses.  The Company operates television channels; constructs and maintains telecommunications infrastructure; retails mobile telephones; provides satellite communications services; and offers Internet access.

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Emtek (EMTK IJ)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading...

Brian Freitas

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - Risks and Rewards in 2024

Grab Holdings looks set to move toward cashflow breakeven in 2H2024 having hit adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 3Q2023 as it successfully struck a...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo Initiatives, Ramayana Lestari, and Indonesia Strategy.

The past week saw insights on GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ), Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS IJ), Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ), CP FOODS (CPF TB), and...

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

GGRM and MAPI replace TINS and JPFA in the LQ45. Passives need to buy between 1-3x ADV in the next 4 trading days. There will be pre-positioning on...

Brian Freitas

PT Surya Citra Media (SCMA IJ) - Catalytic Converter

Surya Citra Media continues to invest in original content but cashflows are expected to be stronger in 2023, paving the way for higher dividends....

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading...

Brian Freitas

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - Risks and Rewards in 2024

Grab Holdings looks set to move toward cashflow breakeven in 2H2024 having hit adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 3Q2023 as it successfully struck a...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo Initiatives, Ramayana Lestari, and Indonesia Strategy.

The past week saw insights on GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ), Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS IJ), Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ), CP FOODS (CPF TB), and...

Angus Mackintosh

​​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

GGRM and MAPI replace TINS and JPFA in the LQ45. Passives need to buy between 1-3x ADV in the next 4 trading days. There will be pre-positioning on...

Brian Freitas

PT Surya Citra Media (SCMA IJ) - Catalytic Converter

Surya Citra Media continues to invest in original content but cashflows are expected to be stronger in 2023, paving the way for higher dividends....

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days