Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Will we see more of the same ineffectual export curbs or a lightening of export restrictions?</li>
<li>Expect a continued rotation into all things non-tech in JP including Home Builders who jumped overnight as yields sank.</li>
<li>Plenty of shorts with ample downside including Hitachi, Fuji Elec, Hokkaido Elec outside of the mainstay AI plays.</li>
</ul>


Will we see more of the same ineffectual export curbs or a lightening of export restrictions?
Expect a continued rotation into all things non-tech in JP including Home Builders who jumped overnight as yields sank.
Plenty of shorts with ample downside including Hitachi, Fuji Elec, Hokkaido Elec outside of the mainstay AI plays.


Japan Morning Connection: US Tech Meltdown Set to Hit Japan AI/Tech Names Again

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">NKY INDEX</a> in March.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup of shorts in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> as the stock has underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philadelphia-stock-exchange-semiconductor-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32992:1" rel="noopener">Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)</a> by a lot.</li>
<li>The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> changes in March.</li>
</ul>


The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the NKY INDEX in March.
There has been a buildup of shorts in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) as the stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) by a lot.
The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) changes in March.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion - It's All Happening

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-general-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2025:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu General (6755 JP)</a> announced a preconditional tender offer from Paloma Rheem Holdings Co at JPY2,808 per share, a 23.5% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The offer, which is preconditional on regulatory approvals and will open in early July, is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples.</li>
<li>The process is lacking as Fujitsu declined to conduct an auction. The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range, and the Board requested price.</li>
</ul>



Fujitsu General (6755 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from Paloma Rheem Holdings Co at JPY2,808 per share, a 23.5% premium to the last close.
The offer, which is preconditional on regulatory approvals and will open in early July, is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples.
The process is lacking as Fujitsu declined to conduct an auction. The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range, and the Board requested price.


Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Fujitsu (6702 JP) Supports a Light Tender Offer

<ul>
<li>On 31 October, in response to an FT article, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> confirmed that it has received a preliminary non-binding proposal, which the special committee is reviewing.</li>
<li>Fujitec’s shareholder register and relative underperformance compared to its Japanese peers make it ripe for a bid. Potential bidders could include PE and trade buyers.</li>
<li>The TK Elevator takeout multiple would imply a Fujitec offer price of JPY6,100-7,500, a 10.2%-35.6% premium to the last close of JPY5,533.</li>
</ul>


On 31 October, in response to an FT article, Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) confirmed that it has received a preliminary non-binding proposal, which the special committee is reviewing.
Fujitec’s shareholder register and relative underperformance compared to its Japanese peers make it ripe for a bid. Potential bidders could include PE and trade buyers.
The TK Elevator takeout multiple would imply a Fujitec offer price of JPY6,100-7,500, a 10.2%-35.6% premium to the last close of JPY5,533.


Fujitec (6406 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

<ul>
<li>Cummin's earnings +8.9% a good read for DC related power plays.</li>
<li>Weakness for Nintendo on an earnings miss could be a good chance to buy ahead of new Switch announcement.</li>
<li>JMDC sets a good tone for medical data related plays including M3 and Medley.</li>
</ul>


Cummin's earnings +8.9% a good read for DC related power plays.
Weakness for Nintendo on an earnings miss could be a good chance to buy ahead of new Switch announcement.
JMDC sets a good tone for medical data related plays including M3 and Medley.


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Turning Surprisingly Risk-On Despite the Election Uncertainty

Japan

Hitachi, Ltd. manufactures communications and electronic equipment, heavy electrical and industrial machinery, and consumer electronics.  The Company's diverse product line ranges from nuclear power systems to kitchen appliances. Hitachi also operates subsidiaries in the wire and cable, metal, and chemical industries.

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Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech Meltdown Set to Hit Japan AI/Tech Names Again

Expect a continued shift away towards non-tech sectors, particularly home builders. Plenty of shorts with downside to consider.

Andrew Jackson

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion - It's All Happening

Over the next 2 months, Kokusai Electric has a large lock-up expiry, a near certain index deletion and a potential index inclusion. Shorts have...

Brian Freitas

Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Fujitsu (6702 JP) Supports a Light Tender Offer

Due to the lack of an auction, the offer being below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range, and the Board's requested price, a competing bid...

Arun George

Fujitec (6406 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

Fujitec is evaluating a preliminary non-binding proposal. Fujitec’s shareholder register makes it ripe for a bid. Potential bidders could include...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Turning Surprisingly Risk-On Despite the Election Uncertainty

Cummin's earnings a good read for DC-related power plays. Nintendo's miss may present a buying opportunity before new Switch announcement. JMDC...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech Meltdown Set to Hit Japan AI/Tech Names Again

Expect a continued shift away towards non-tech sectors, particularly home builders. Plenty of shorts with downside to consider.

Andrew Jackson

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion - It's All Happening

Over the next 2 months, Kokusai Electric has a large lock-up expiry, a near certain index deletion and a potential index inclusion. Shorts have...

Brian Freitas

Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Fujitsu (6702 JP) Supports a Light Tender Offer

Due to the lack of an auction, the offer being below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range, and the Board's requested price, a competing bid...

Arun George

Fujitec (6406 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

Fujitec is evaluating a preliminary non-binding proposal. Fujitec’s shareholder register makes it ripe for a bid. Potential bidders could include...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Turning Surprisingly Risk-On Despite the Election Uncertainty

​Cummin's earnings a good read for DC-related power plays. Nintendo's miss may present a buying opportunity before new Switch announcement. JMDC...

Andrew Jackson

Cummin's earnings a good read for DC-related power plays. Nintendo's miss may present a buying opportunity before new Switch announcement. JMDC...