Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This Insight analyses <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.</li>
<li>These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Several large box trades appeared on the ticker.</li>
<li>Expect more movement on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>'s <strong>Q3 earnings announcement tomorrow, </strong>20 February 2025. Option-implied move at the end of this Insight.</li>
</ul>


This Insight analyses Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Several large box trades appeared on the ticker.
Expect more movement on Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)'s Q3 earnings announcement tomorrow, 20 February 2025. Option-implied move at the end of this Insight.


Alibaba (9988 HK): How Options Traders Are Navigating the Rally and Volatility. Top Trades.

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Most Western media viewed Xi's weekend handshake with Ma in the meeting with business leaders over the weekend as historical reconciliation. We believe it dangerously missed the mark; </li>
<li>Watch Jiang Fan...His next move to revitalize Taobao/Tmall could mean headwinds to Pinduoduo and JD.com. Taobao/Tmall performed well during CNY;</li>
<li>Alibaba's Apple grab shows its unique ecosystem position in the US-China macrocosm. JD's entry to O2O showed it needed a new growth driver post 2025. </li>
</ul>


Most Western media viewed Xi's weekend handshake with Ma in the meeting with business leaders over the weekend as historical reconciliation. We believe it dangerously missed the mark; 
Watch Jiang Fan...His next move to revitalize Taobao/Tmall could mean headwinds to Pinduoduo and JD.com. Taobao/Tmall performed well during CNY;
Alibaba's Apple grab shows its unique ecosystem position in the US-China macrocosm. JD's entry to O2O showed it needed a new growth driver post 2025. 


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 7/52]: Xi's Meeting with Ma Went Way Beyond Just Reconciliation

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Xtapli is looking to raise around US$242m via a primary placement, after having raised US$145m in Jan 2025.</li>
<li>QuantumPharm is a R&amp;D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&amp;D solutions.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Xtapli is looking to raise around US$242m via a primary placement, after having raised US$145m in Jan 2025.
QuantumPharm is a R&amp;D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&amp;D solutions.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Xtapli Placement - Questionable Timing. An AI Momentum Play, at Best

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>Many has cheered or felt relieved over Xi's weekend meeting with the top Chinese business community. We see a closer relationship between the state apparatus and private enterprises going forward;</li>
<li>January 2025 saw improvement in social financing, with meaningful recovery in corporate financing. Recovery for BOSS might be forthcoming;</li>
<li>BYD dropped the bombshell in populating autonomous driving service (ADS) in sub-Rmb100K vehicles. We view it as another DeepSeek moment. The biggest loser is Tesla. Fast ADS rollout supports AGI.</li>
</ul>


Many has cheered or felt relieved over Xi's weekend meeting with the top Chinese business community. We see a closer relationship between the state apparatus and private enterprises going forward;
January 2025 saw improvement in social financing, with meaningful recovery in corporate financing. Recovery for BOSS might be forthcoming;
BYD dropped the bombshell in populating autonomous driving service (ADS) in sub-Rmb100K vehicles. We view it as another DeepSeek moment. The biggest loser is Tesla. Fast ADS rollout supports AGI.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 7/52] Xi's Meeting with Ma Closed the Anti-Monopoly Chapter

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.</li>
<li>With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.</li>
<li>The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.
With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.
The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the Hang Seng Index over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Alibaba (9988 HK): How Options Traders Are Navigating the Rally and Volatility. Top Trades.

Analysis of tailor-made option strategies on Alibaba Group Holding with focus on risk profile and yield. Q3 earnings announcement tomorrow, option...

Gaudenz Schneider

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 7/52]: Xi's Meeting with Ma Went Way Beyond Just Reconciliation

Western media praised Xi's handshake with Ma as historic, but missed the mark. Alibaba's moves could impact Pinduoduo and JD.com, highlighting its...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Xtapli Placement - Questionable Timing. An AI Momentum Play, at Best

Xtapli is looking to raise around US$242m via a primary placement, after having raised US$145m in Jan 2025. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 7/52] Xi's Meeting with Ma Closed the Anti-Monopoly Chapter

Xi's meeting with Chinese business leaders signals a closer relationship going forward. Social financing data improved in January 2025. BYD's...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

We highlight 9 potential inclusions to the HSI in March. Downward capping on Tencent and Alibaba gives the index committee an opportunity to add...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba (9988 HK): How Options Traders Are Navigating the Rally and Volatility. Top Trades.

​Analysis of tailor-made option strategies on Alibaba Group Holding with focus on risk profile and yield. Q3 earnings announcement tomorrow, option...

Gaudenz Schneider

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 7/52]: Xi's Meeting with Ma Went Way Beyond Just Reconciliation

​Western media praised Xi's handshake with Ma as historic, but missed the mark. Alibaba's moves could impact Pinduoduo and JD.com, highlighting its...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Xtapli Placement - Questionable Timing. An AI Momentum Play, at Best

Xtapli is looking to raise around US$242m via a primary placement, after having raised US$145m in Jan 2025. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 7/52] Xi's Meeting with Ma Closed the Anti-Monopoly Chapter

​Xi's meeting with Chinese business leaders signals a closer relationship going forward. Social financing data improved in January 2025. BYD's...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

We highlight 9 potential inclusions to the HSI in March. Downward capping on Tencent and Alibaba gives the index committee an opportunity to add...

Brian Freitas

Analysis of tailor-made option strategies on Alibaba Group Holding with focus on risk profile and yield. Q3 earnings announcement tomorrow, option...

Western media praised Xi's handshake with Ma as historic, but missed the mark. Alibaba's moves could impact Pinduoduo and JD.com, highlighting its...

Xi's meeting with Chinese business leaders signals a closer relationship going forward. Social financing data improved in January 2025. BYD's...