Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Xiaomi has had a remarkable rally, ranking at the 99th percentile for all previous 1-month price changes.</li>
<li>Implied vols have surged along with price with 1M, 2M and 3M implied vols all ranking above the 95th over the past 4 years.  </li>
<li>We recommend how to manage risk and positioning given the extreme price and implied vol dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Xiaomi has had a remarkable rally, ranking at the 99th percentile for all previous 1-month price changes.
Implied vols have surged along with price with 1M, 2M and 3M implied vols all ranking above the 95th over the past 4 years.  
We recommend how to manage risk and positioning given the extreme price and implied vol dynamics.


Xiaomi: 3 Option Hedges for Extreme Price & Volatility Environment

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alibaba Group reported mixed financial results, with strong cloud and artificial intelligence growth offset by profitability pressure from heavy investment.</li><li>Total revenue reached RMB 269 billion, up 9% year-over-year, driven largely by a 45% increase in Alibaba Cloud external revenue, marking the 22nd quarter of acceleration.</li><li>AI-related cloud products sustained triple-digit growth for the 12th consecutive quarter and reached an annualized revenue run rate of RMB 49.5 billion, or approximately USD 7.3 billion.</li></ul>

Alibaba Group reported mixed financial results, with strong cloud and artificial intelligence growth offset by profitability pressure from heavy investment.Total revenue reached RMB 269 billion, up 9% year-over-year, driven largely by a 45% increase in Alibaba Cloud external revenue, marking the 22nd quarter of acceleration.AI-related cloud products sustained triple-digit growth for the 12th consecutive quarter and reached an annualized revenue run rate of RMB 49.5 billion, or approximately USD 7.3 billion.

Alibaba Group's $100 Billion Cloud Ambition: Can AI Deliver The Payoff?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (BABA US)</a> has announced a placement of HK$80bn (US$10.2bn) to invest in its full stack AI capabilities and to expand and enhance its AI infrastructure.</li>
<li>The shares are being offered at HK$112.7/share, an 8.4% discount to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> close and a 3.6% discount to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (BABA US)</a> close.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying from trackers of one global index later this week, while trackers of the other global index will buy in November. No impact for local indices.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK) / Alibaba (BABA US) has announced a placement of HK$80bn (US$10.2bn) to invest in its full stack AI capabilities and to expand and enhance its AI infrastructure.
The shares are being offered at HK$112.7/share, an 8.4% discount to the Alibaba (9988 HK) close and a 3.6% discount to the Alibaba (BABA US) close.
There will be passive buying from trackers of one global index later this week, while trackers of the other global index will buy in November. No impact for local indices.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Index Implications for US$10bn Placement

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/momenta-global-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50275:1" rel="noopener">Momenta Global (6880 HK)</a> are set to list this week. </li>
<li>On the placement front, deals continued to flow in across the region, throughout the week.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK) and Momenta Global (6880 HK) are set to list this week. 
On the placement front, deals continued to flow in across the region, throughout the week.


Aequitas ECM Weekly (31 August 2026)-Alibaba, Shein, Momenta, Longsys, Jio, Wuxi XDC, Wistron

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Xiaomi: 3 Option Hedges for Extreme Price & Volatility Environment

Xiaomi's impressive rally, surging implied vols, upcoming earnings and index re-balance call for careful risk management and option positioning...

John Ley

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Alibaba Group's $100 Billion Cloud Ambition: Can AI Deliver The Payoff?

Alibaba Group reported mixed financial results, with strong cloud and artificial intelligence growth offset by profitability pressure from heavy...

Baptista Research

Alibaba (9988 HK): Index Implications for US$10bn Placement

Alibaba is looking to raise US$10bn. That is a 3.7% increase in NOS and 7.4x ADV, so not hugely material. Passives will buy between 11-12% of the...

Brian Freitas

Aequitas ECM Weekly (31 August 2026)-Alibaba, Shein, Momenta, Longsys, Jio, Wuxi XDC, Wistron

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Xiaomi: 3 Option Hedges for Extreme Price & Volatility Environment

​Xiaomi's impressive rally, surging implied vols, upcoming earnings and index re-balance call for careful risk management and option positioning...

John Ley

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Alibaba Group's $100 Billion Cloud Ambition: Can AI Deliver The Payoff?

Alibaba Group reported mixed financial results, with strong cloud and artificial intelligence growth offset by profitability pressure from heavy...

Baptista Research

Alibaba (9988 HK): Index Implications for US$10bn Placement

Alibaba is looking to raise US$10bn. That is a 3.7% increase in NOS and 7.4x ADV, so not hugely material. Passives will buy between 11-12% of the...

Brian Freitas

Aequitas ECM Weekly (31 August 2026)-Alibaba, Shein, Momenta, Longsys, Jio, Wuxi XDC, Wistron

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Xiaomi's impressive rally, surging implied vols, upcoming earnings and index re-balance call for careful risk management and option positioning...

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...