Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>03888 HK/BIDU US/BABA US: Kingsoft WPS has released an upgraded AI version, with the new AI platform integrating "Ernie Bot" and "Qwen". (+)</li>
<li>700 HK/002624 CH/BILI US: The NPPA Has Released the Latest Batch of Import Game Code Approvals. (+/+/-)</li>
<li>1519.HK/SE: J&amp;T reports Southeast Asia parcel volume increased 55% yoy in 1Q24 (+)</li>
</ul>


03888 HK/BIDU US/BABA US: Kingsoft WPS has released an upgraded AI version, with the new AI platform integrating "Ernie Bot" and "Qwen". (+)
700 HK/002624 CH/BILI US: The NPPA Has Released the Latest Batch of Import Game Code Approvals. (+/+/-)
1519.HK/SE: J&amp;T reports Southeast Asia parcel volume increased 55% yoy in 1Q24 (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:3888 HK/BIDU/BABA/700HK/002624 CH/BILI/1519HK/SE/JD/NTES /ATVI/MSFT

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect Alibaba to deliver in-line-with-consensus revenue growth for 4QFY24.</li><li>Although escalated investment in international business, cloud, and Taobao and Tmall (T&amp;T) Group, as well as strategically important new businesses is likely to put some short-term pressure on margin expansion, we remain positive on Alibaba’s long-term growth potential.</li><li>Alibaba remains committed to improving shareholder return by achieving loss reduction in non-core business, and enhancing share buyback and dividend payout, which in our view should provide support for near-term valuation. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect Alibaba to deliver in-line-with-consensus revenue growth for 4QFY24.Although escalated investment in international business, cloud, and Taobao and Tmall (T&amp;T) Group, as well as strategically important new businesses is likely to put some short-term pressure on margin expansion, we remain positive on Alibaba’s long-term growth potential.Alibaba remains committed to improving shareholder return by achieving loss reduction in non-core business, and enhancing share buyback and dividend payout, which in our view should provide support for near-term valuation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) - Driving Long-Term Growth While Enhancing Shareholder Return

<ul>
<li>We expect Alibaba to report CY1Q24 top-line, non-GAAP EBITA and non-GAAP net income in-line, (14.2%) and (7.4%) vs. consensus. We cut non-GAAP EBITA by 10% and kept topline unchanged;</li>
<li>BABA is prioritizing growth of both AliCloud and cross-border ecommerce (AliExpress), which will weaken profitability in the near-term but is the right thing to do. </li>
<li>BABA is transforming itself into Chinese Microsoft with hopes of e-commerce mainly pinned on overseas. We maintain BUY and US$ 85 TP, implying 9.5x CY24 P/E.</li>
</ul>


We expect Alibaba to report CY1Q24 top-line, non-GAAP EBITA and non-GAAP net income in-line, (14.2%) and (7.4%) vs. consensus. We cut non-GAAP EBITA by 10% and kept topline unchanged;
BABA is prioritizing growth of both AliCloud and cross-border ecommerce (AliExpress), which will weaken profitability in the near-term but is the right thing to do. 
BABA is transforming itself into Chinese Microsoft with hopes of e-commerce mainly pinned on overseas. We maintain BUY and US$ 85 TP, implying 9.5x CY24 P/E.


Spending on Customers Precedes Customer Spending

<ul>
<li>700 HK：Tencent's &lt;Need for Speed Mobile&gt; is set to be released in 3Q24.(+)</li>
<li>Douyin/3690 HK: Douyin to acquire payment license for local life services biz, implying heightened competition for Meituan.（-）</li>
<li>TCOM: Railway passenger volume during Qingming holiday expected to reach 111% of 2019 level, showing a decline compared to the Spring Festival.</li>
</ul>


700 HK：Tencent's &lt;Need for Speed Mobile&gt; is set to be released in 3Q24.(+)
Douyin/3690 HK: Douyin to acquire payment license for local life services biz, implying heightened competition for Meituan.（-）
TCOM: Railway passenger volume during Qingming holiday expected to reach 111% of 2019 level, showing a decline compared to the Spring Festival.


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/Douyin/3690 HK/TCOM US/BABA US/NTES US

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>It is well-known that Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is cheap (9x FY24 PE, fiscal year ending March; 8x FY23 free cash flow; net cash 25% of market cap).</li>
<li>Taking into account all of the major moving parts, I believe Alibaba can now be categorized as a good value stock. </li>
<li>Shareholder returns through buyback and dividend, minus stock-based compensation in 2023 calendar year equal to around 5% yield.</li>
</ul>


It is well-known that Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is cheap (9x FY24 PE, fiscal year ending March; 8x FY23 free cash flow; net cash 25% of market cap).
Taking into account all of the major moving parts, I believe Alibaba can now be categorized as a good value stock. 
Shareholder returns through buyback and dividend, minus stock-based compensation in 2023 calendar year equal to around 5% yield.


Alibaba (9988 HK):  Value Proposition Looks Clean

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:3888 HK/BIDU/BABA/700HK/002624 CH/BILI/1519HK/SE/JD/NTES /ATVI/MSFT

Kingsoft WPS upgrades AI version with "Ernie Bot" and "Qwen", NPPA releases new import game code approvals, J&T reports 55% yoy parcel volume...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA US) - Driving Long-Term Growth While Enhancing Shareholder Return

Alibaba remains committed to improving shareholder return by achieving loss reduction in non-core business, and enhancing share buyback and...

CMB International

Spending on Customers Precedes Customer Spending

Alibaba expected to report in-line earnings, prioritizing growth of AliCloud and AliExpress despite near-term profitability concerns. Maintaining...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/Douyin/3690 HK/TCOM US/BABA US/NTES US

Tencent to release Need for Speed Mobile in 3Q24, Douyin acquires payment license for local services, railway passenger volume during Qingming...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (9988 HK): Value Proposition Looks Clean

According to public news, Jack Ma has written a long post in Alibaba's internal website, titled "To reform, to innovation". This is the first...

Steve

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:3888 HK/BIDU/BABA/700HK/002624 CH/BILI/1519HK/SE/JD/NTES /ATVI/MSFT

​Kingsoft WPS upgrades AI version with "Ernie Bot" and "Qwen", NPPA releases new import game code approvals, J&T reports 55% yoy parcel volume...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA US) - Driving Long-Term Growth While Enhancing Shareholder Return

Alibaba remains committed to improving shareholder return by achieving loss reduction in non-core business, and enhancing share buyback and...

CMB International

Spending on Customers Precedes Customer Spending

​Alibaba expected to report in-line earnings, prioritizing growth of AliCloud and AliExpress despite near-term profitability concerns. Maintaining...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/Douyin/3690 HK/TCOM US/BABA US/NTES US

​Tencent to release Need for Speed Mobile in 3Q24, Douyin acquires payment license for local services, railway passenger volume during Qingming...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (9988 HK): Value Proposition Looks Clean

According to public news, Jack Ma has written a long post in Alibaba's internal website, titled "To reform, to innovation". This is the first...

Steve

Kingsoft WPS upgrades AI version with "Ernie Bot" and "Qwen", NPPA releases new import game code approvals, J&T reports 55% yoy parcel volume...

Alibaba expected to report in-line earnings, prioritizing growth of AliCloud and AliExpress despite near-term profitability concerns. Maintaining...

Tencent to release Need for Speed Mobile in 3Q24, Douyin acquires payment license for local services, railway passenger volume during Qingming...