Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Recent Alibaba earnings reactions, including last quarter, have been significantly larger than longer-term averages, contributing to a richer implied jump into this quarter’s release.</li>
<li>Alibaba’s post-earnings performance has skewed negative historically, with positive reactions occurring in a minority of earnings releases.</li>
<li>This quarters setup is interesting even without considering Alibaba’s history of inconsistent results and frequent misses.</li>
</ul>


Recent Alibaba earnings reactions, including last quarter, have been significantly larger than longer-term averages, contributing to a richer implied jump into this quarter’s release.
Alibaba’s post-earnings performance has skewed negative historically, with positive reactions occurring in a minority of earnings releases.
This quarters setup is interesting even without considering Alibaba’s history of inconsistent results and frequent misses.


Alibaba (9988.HK) Earnings: Elevated Implied Jump Into Q4 Results

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • TKH Group | strong performance by to be divested businesses – reiterates FY26 outlook • PostNL | Monday concentration remains a structural drag • Austrian Post | expands e-commerce footprint to Slovakia via FHB Group acquisition • E-commerce & Logistics | Shein IPO: sub-USD 30bn pitch reflects structural headwinds</li></ul>

In this edition: • TKH Group | strong performance by to be divested businesses – reiterates FY26 outlook • PostNL | Monday concentration remains a structural drag • Austrian Post | expands e-commerce footprint to Slovakia via FHB Group acquisition • E-commerce & Logistics | Shein IPO: sub-USD 30bn pitch reflects structural headwinds

What's News in Amsterdam - 11 August (TKH Group | PostNL | Austrian Post | E-com & Logistics)

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>We believe the revenue growth will rise significantly to 9% in 1Q27.</li>
<li>In 1Q27, the disposal cases, Sun Art and Intime, would no longer impact “all others” revenue.</li>
<li>We expect Alibaba has an upside of 59% for Dec. 2027 according to other e-commerce companies’ Price/Sales and EV/Sales.</li>
</ul>


We believe the revenue growth will rise significantly to 9% in 1Q27.
In 1Q27, the disposal cases, Sun Art and Intime, would no longer impact “all others” revenue.
We expect Alibaba has an upside of 59% for Dec. 2027 according to other e-commerce companies’ Price/Sales and EV/Sales.


Alibaba (9988 HK) 1Q27 Earnings Preview: To See Clear Growth as Old Disposal Cases No Longer Impacts

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK, </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">BABA US)</a> will report its June Quarter 2026 results on 20 August and hold its conference call at 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.</li>
<li>Implied volatility comparisons show U.S.-listed options are already repricing for the event, while HK-listed prices have yet to reflect the expected event-related volatility.</li>
<li>The new HK weekly contract expiring on 21 August, together with later weekly and monthly expiries, should drive active Hong Kong trading, with potential spillover into the next U.S. session.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK, BABA US) will report its June Quarter 2026 results on 20 August and hold its conference call at 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.
Implied volatility comparisons show U.S.-listed options are already repricing for the event, while HK-listed prices have yet to reflect the expected event-related volatility.
The new HK weekly contract expiring on 21 August, together with later weekly and monthly expiries, should drive active Hong Kong trading, with potential spillover into the next U.S. session.


Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US): Earnings Date Announced; Options Set to Reprice

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM, Dantes Outlook

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM

Dantes Outlook

We invest over a full market cycle, using multi-asset portfolios tailored to each global client, from individuals to family offices.

Built to Endure

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Offshore relative value: We tested 12-month relative returns across onshore vs. offshore, and both vs. EM. Offshore China is the oversold leg, driven by its own weakness rather than onshore strength. </li>
<li>
AI rotation: The performance gap reflects capital favoring the onshore industrial upgrades vs. offshore consumption. Re-rating requires offshore earnings pickup regardless of how cheap the multiple looks.</li>
<li>
Stock selection:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-china-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22895:1" rel="noopener">MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX)</a> is dominated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> while dispersion across the index is wide. We built an investable bucket.
</li>
</ul>



Offshore relative value: We tested 12-month relative returns across onshore vs. offshore, and both vs. EM. Offshore China is the oversold leg, driven by its own weakness rather than onshore strength. 

AI rotation: The performance gap reflects capital favoring the onshore industrial upgrades vs. offshore consumption. Re-rating requires offshore earnings pickup regardless of how cheap the multiple looks.

Stock selection:MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX) is dominated by Tencent (700 HK) and Alibaba (9988 HK) while dispersion across the index is wide. We built an investable bucket.



China Equities: Relative Upside in Offshore Vs. Onshore Stocks

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Alibaba (9988.HK) Earnings: Elevated Implied Jump Into Q4 Results

Alibaba enters Q4 earnings with implied event pricing above historical norms, reflecting recent large earnings reactions and a mixed history of...

John Ley

What's News in Amsterdam - 11 August (TKH Group | PostNL | Austrian Post | E-com & Logistics)

In this edition: • TKH Group | strong performance by to be divested businesses – reiterates FY26 outlook • PostNL | Monday concentration remains a...

The IDEA!

Alibaba (9988 HK) 1Q27 Earnings Preview: To See Clear Growth as Old Disposal Cases No Longer Impacts

We believe the revenue growth will rise significantly to 9% in 1Q27. In 1Q27, the disposal cases, Sun Art and Intime, would no longer impact “all...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US): Earnings Date Announced; Options Set to Reprice

Alibaba’s confirmed earnings date is set to drive repricing across Hong Kong and U.S. options markets, with the new weekly contract sharpening...

Gaudenz Schneider

China Equities: Relative Upside in Offshore Vs. Onshore Stocks

Offshore China is improving relative to onshore China. We anticipate a re-ratings cycle and selected a basket of offshore stocks for active returns.

Damanick Dantes, CMT

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