Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 April 2025. In the lead-up, options strategies on the Hong Kong Exchange showcase a variety of approaches.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Recent option trades show a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment. Calendar Spreads, Strangles, and Spreads using weekly options are explored.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This review offers real-market insight into how sophisticated participants are positioning around Tencent’s earnings — providing actionable reference points for structuring trades or assessing market expectations.</li>
</ul>



Context: Tencent (700 HK) is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 April 2025. In the lead-up, options strategies on the Hong Kong Exchange showcase a variety of approaches.

Highlights: Recent option trades show a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment. Calendar Spreads, Strangles, and Spreads using weekly options are explored.

Why Read: This review offers real-market insight into how sophisticated participants are positioning around Tencent’s earnings — providing actionable reference points for structuring trades or assessing market expectations.


Tencent (700 HK): How Traders Are Positioning Into Earnings

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There should be big passive inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.</li>
<li>Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.</li>
<li>Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.</li>
</ul>


There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.


Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>July’s $17.28 bn inflow through Southbound was almost triple of that of the May low ($5.85bn). The flows are now on track to recovering to the March-April peak of $20-22bn.</li>
<li>Investors continue buying dividend plays (CCB), sharp decliners (Meituan), policy beneficiaries (SMIC). Kuaishou and Alibaba were bought after being sold recently. Biotechnology (Innovent, Akeso) and insurance (ChinaLife) are new favorites.</li>
<li>Expensive consumers and consumer proxies (Pop Mart, Tencent, Xiaomi) continue to be sold. Last three months selling in Xiaomi and Tencent have almost wiped out their cumulative 12 month's buying.</li>
</ul>


July’s $17.28 bn inflow through Southbound was almost triple of that of the May low ($5.85bn). The flows are now on track to recovering to the March-April peak of $20-22bn.
Investors continue buying dividend plays (CCB), sharp decliners (Meituan), policy beneficiaries (SMIC). Kuaishou and Alibaba were bought after being sold recently. Biotechnology (Innovent, Akeso) and insurance (ChinaLife) are new favorites.
Expensive consumers and consumer proxies (Pop Mart, Tencent, Xiaomi) continue to be sold. Last three months selling in Xiaomi and Tencent have almost wiped out their cumulative 12 month's buying.


Asian Equity: Southbound Monthly- July Boom; New Darlings: Insurance, Biotech; Pricey Consumers Sold

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sicc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36273:1" rel="noopener">SICC (688234 CH)</a>, a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$250m in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>In terms of market share, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the PHIP updates and talk about the likely A/H premium.</li>
</ul>



SICC (688234 CH), a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$250m in its H-share listing.
In terms of market share, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.
In this note, we look at the PHIP updates and talk about the likely A/H premium.


SICC A/H Listing - PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Second best in months. Net buying strong at just over +US$1.5bn a day.</li>
<li>FINANCIALS and HEALTHCARE and now INFO TECH stand out as net buys as a % of volume. TELECOMS a net sell. Again. </li>
<li>Hong Kong sharply underperformed mainland shares last week, SOUTHBOUND bought big, and despite higher AH Premia, Beautiful Skew continued.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Second best in months. Net buying strong at just over +US$1.5bn a day.
FINANCIALS and HEALTHCARE and now INFO TECH stand out as net buys as a % of volume. TELECOMS a net sell. Again. 
Hong Kong sharply underperformed mainland shares last week, SOUTHBOUND bought big, and despite higher AH Premia, Beautiful Skew continued.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Tencent (700 HK): How Traders Are Positioning Into Earnings

An in-depth review of recent option trades on Tencent (700 HK), revealing how market participants are positioning ahead of the Q2 earnings...

Gaudenz Schneider

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

Index inclusion and float increase over the next 6 weeks could lead to US$1bn of inflows to Horizon Robotics. Stock Connect investors hold around...

Brian Freitas

Asian Equity: Southbound Monthly- July Boom; New Darlings: Insurance, Biotech; Pricey Consumers Sold

July Southbound flow nearly tripled from May's low, on track to reach Mar-Apr peak. Investors like dividend plays, policy beneficiaries & recently...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SICC A/H Listing - PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

SICC (688234 CH), a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$250m in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)

SOUTHBOUND net buying was HUGE as H-shares underperformed mainland shares reasonably dramatically over the week. Biggest week of net buying for...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tencent (700 HK): How Traders Are Positioning Into Earnings

​An in-depth review of recent option trades on Tencent (700 HK), revealing how market participants are positioning ahead of the Q2 earnings...

Gaudenz Schneider

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

Index inclusion and float increase over the next 6 weeks could lead to US$1bn of inflows to Horizon Robotics. Stock Connect investors hold around...

Brian Freitas

Asian Equity: Southbound Monthly- July Boom; New Darlings: Insurance, Biotech; Pricey Consumers Sold

July ​Southbound flow nearly tripled from May's low, on track to reach Mar-Apr peak. Investors like dividend plays, policy beneficiaries & recently...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SICC A/H Listing - PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

SICC (688234 CH), a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$250m in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)

SOUTHBOUND net buying was HUGE as H-shares underperformed mainland shares reasonably dramatically over the week. Biggest week of net buying for...

Travis Lundy

An in-depth review of recent option trades on Tencent (700 HK), revealing how market participants are positioning ahead of the Q2 earnings...

July Southbound flow nearly tripled from May's low, on track to reach Mar-Apr peak. Investors like dividend plays, policy beneficiaries & recently...