Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Motilal Oswal's research report onTech Mahindra Tech Mahindra (TECHM) reported 2QFY25 revenue of USD1.6b, up 0.7% QoQ in constant currency (CC) vs. our estimate of 0.2% QoQ CC.</li><li>The growth was driven by Retail/Technology (up 5.6%/5.7% sequentially).</li><li>Communication/BFSI also witnessed growth of 2.7%/2.4% QoQ, while Manufacturing declined 4% QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Motilal Oswal's research report onTech Mahindra Tech Mahindra (TECHM) reported 2QFY25 revenue of USD1.6b, up 0.7% QoQ in constant currency (CC) vs. our estimate of 0.2% QoQ CC.The growth was driven by Retail/Technology (up 5.6%/5.7% sequentially).Communication/BFSI also witnessed growth of 2.7%/2.4% QoQ, while Manufacturing declined 4% QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 16 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn (US$736m).</li>
<li>Since June, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 16 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn (US$736m).
Since June, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>TechM reported steady revenue growth &amp; strong margin expansion in Q2FY25.</li><li>Revenue came at US$1.59 bn, up 0.7% QoQ in CC vs our expectation of flat growth &amp; cons. est. of 0.4% QoQ CC growth.</li><li>Growth in qtr. was aided by verticals of Hitech, CME &amp; BFSI offset by the weakness in Manufacturing. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TechM reported steady revenue growth &amp; strong margin expansion in Q2FY25.Revenue came at US$1.59 bn, up 0.7% QoQ in CC vs our expectation of flat growth &amp; cons. est. of 0.4% QoQ CC growth.Growth in qtr. was aided by verticals of Hitech, CME &amp; BFSI offset by the weakness in Manufacturing. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tech Mahindra - Steady Growth & Another Strong Quarter of Margin Expansion…

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were below our estimates, largely due to higher-than-expected credit costs (65 bps) and lower other income</li><li>While the loan growth moderated to ~15% YoY, the deposit traction remained steady</li><li>NIMs continued to remain under pressure (-11bps QoQ) due to reducing share of unsecured retail and rising cost of funds (+5 bps QoQ) and are likely to moderate further during FY25</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were below our estimates, largely due to higher-than-expected credit costs (65 bps) and lower other incomeWhile the loan growth moderated to ~15% YoY, the deposit traction remained steadyNIMs continued to remain under pressure (-11bps QoQ) due to reducing share of unsecured retail and rising cost of funds (+5 bps QoQ) and are likely to moderate further during FY25Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tech Mahindra, IndiaMART InterMESH, RBL Bank, Mastek

India

Tech Mahindra Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company markets software for telecommunications equipment manufacturers, telecom service providers, software vendors, and systems integrators.

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Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN)

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

Tech Mahindra - Transformation on Track

Motilal Oswal's research report onTech Mahindra Tech Mahindra (TECHM) reported 2QFY25 revenue of USD1.6b, up 0.7% QoQ in constant currency (CC) vs....

Motilal Oswal

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum

There could be 16 constituent changes in December. one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn...

Brian Freitas

Tech Mahindra - Steady Growth & Another Strong Quarter of Margin Expansion…

TechM reported steady revenue growth & strong margin expansion in Q2FY25. Revenue came at US$1.59 bn, up 0.7% QoQ in CC vs our expectation of flat...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tech Mahindra, IndiaMART InterMESH, RBL Bank, Mastek

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were below our estimates, largely due to higher-than-expected credit costs (65 bps) and...

HDFC Securities

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