Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US base oils demand likely to remain more muted as concern about strength of end-user consumption and expectations of improving supply incentivize buyers to maintain low stocks.</li><li>Demand could get support from procurement of additional stocks as buffer against any weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.</li><li>Any such stock-building would be despite expectations of more readily-available supply over coming months.</li></ul>

US base oils demand likely to remain more muted as concern about strength of end-user consumption and expectations of improving supply incentivize buyers to maintain low stocks.Demand could get support from procurement of additional stocks as buffer against any weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.Any such stock-building would be despite expectations of more readily-available supply over coming months.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 26 May

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 16/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 1.3m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.9m barrel fall). Similarly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose.</li>
<li>The EIA reported a 120 Bcf storage build, exceeding analyst forecasts of an 118 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 3.9% above the five-year average.</li>
<li>Barclays initiated coverage on Saudi Aramco with an 'Overweight' rating. Jefferies downgraded BP to 'Hold' from ‘Buy’, and Citigroup lifted its price target on Occidental Petroleum.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 16/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 1.3m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.9m barrel fall). Similarly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose.
The EIA reported a 120 Bcf storage build, exceeding analyst forecasts of an 118 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 3.9% above the five-year average.
Barclays initiated coverage on Saudi Aramco with an 'Overweight' rating. Jefferies downgraded BP to 'Hold' from ‘Buy’, and Citigroup lifted its price target on Occidental Petroleum.


[ETP 2025/21] WTI Slips on Oversupply Fears, Henry Hub Hit by Mild Weather and Storage Surge

<ul><li>Global base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices even as they edge lower.</li><li>Firm base oils values point to tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to maintain high output.</li><li>Base oils values hold firm ahead of typical seasonal slowdown in demand in coming weeks in Asia, and from start of Q3 in Europe/US.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices even as they edge lower.Firm base oils values point to tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to maintain high output.Base oils values hold firm ahead of typical seasonal slowdown in demand in coming weeks in Asia, and from start of Q3 in Europe/US.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 19 May

<ul><li>US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil trends higher in recent weeks compared with Q1 2025, even with dip in premium in mid-May.</li><li>Group II domestic/export price premium trends higher after holding in relatively narrow range from mid-Nov 2024 to end-Q1 2025.</li><li>Narrow range contrasts with steeper fall in Group II export price-premium to VGO in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, followed by sharper recovery from end-Q1 2024.</li></ul>

US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil trends higher in recent weeks compared with Q1 2025, even with dip in premium in mid-May.Group II domestic/export price premium trends higher after holding in relatively narrow range from mid-Nov 2024 to end-Q1 2025.Narrow range contrasts with steeper fall in Group II export price-premium to VGO in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, followed by sharper recovery from end-Q1 2024.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 19 May

<ul><li>US base oils prices slip versus feedstock prices at a time of year when they typically rise.</li><li>Dynamic highlights how lower crude/VGO prices in Q2 2025, rather than higher base oils prices, are key factor supporting higher base oils margins.</li><li>Any further drop in base oils margins would point to weakening supply-demand fundamentals.</li></ul>

US base oils prices slip versus feedstock prices at a time of year when they typically rise.Dynamic highlights how lower crude/VGO prices in Q2 2025, rather than higher base oils prices, are key factor supporting higher base oils margins.Any further drop in base oils margins would point to weakening supply-demand fundamentals.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 19 May

France

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

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TotalEnergies (TTE FP)

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 26 May

US base oils demand likely to remain more muted as concern about strength of end-user consumption and expectations of improving supply incentivize...

Base Oil News

[ETP 2025/21] WTI Slips on Oversupply Fears, Henry Hub Hit by Mild Weather and Storage Surge

US crude inventories rose, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly increased. EIA reported storage build slightly above forecast. Barclays...

Mint Finance

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 19 May

Global base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices even as they edge lower. Firm base oils values point to tight supply-demand...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 19 May

US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil trends higher in recent weeks compared with Q1 2025, even with dip in premium in...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 19 May

US base oils prices slip versus feedstock prices at a time of year when they typically rise. Dynamic highlights how lower crude/VGO prices in Q2...

Base Oil News

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 26 May

US base oils demand likely to remain more muted as concern about strength of end-user consumption and expectations of improving supply incentivize...

Base Oil News

[ETP 2025/21] WTI Slips on Oversupply Fears, Henry Hub Hit by Mild Weather and Storage Surge

​US crude inventories rose, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly increased. EIA reported storage build slightly above forecast. Barclays...

Mint Finance

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 19 May

Global base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices even as they edge lower. Firm base oils values point to tight supply-demand...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 19 May

US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil trends higher in recent weeks compared with Q1 2025, even with dip in premium in...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 19 May

US base oils prices slip versus feedstock prices at a time of year when they typically rise. Dynamic highlights how lower crude/VGO prices in Q2...

Base Oil News

US crude inventories rose, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly increased. EIA reported storage build slightly above forecast. Barclays...