LNG, Oil & Gas, M&A Market Intelligence Specialist

Massimo Bellino

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>New oil cycle impact on M&amp;A</h2>
Since falling to the 12-year minimum of $28 per barrel in January 2016, the Brent crude oil price has climbed by 186% to reach trading levels close to $80 per barrel at the end of June. With the OECD oil inventories already slipping below the five-year averages, the global oil glut that triggered the decline of oil prices in 2014 has effectively been eliminated. As we enter a new oil cycle, the higher oil price volatility and the uncertainty about the direction of the…

New oil cycle impact on M&amp;A
Since falling to the 12-year minimum of $28 per barrel in January 2016, the Brent crude oil price has climbed by 186% to reach trading levels close to $80 per barrel at the end of June. With the OECD oil inventories already slipping below the five-year averages, the global oil glut that triggered the decline of oil prices in 2014 has effectively been eliminated. As we enter a new oil cycle, the higher oil price volatility and the uncertainty about the direction of the…

Three Emerging Industry Trends in Oil & Gas That Could Drive Growth in M&A After Slow Down in 2Q18

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

South Africa has limited historical oil and gas production, with current production of c.25 Kboe/day largely gas-focused for the Mossel Bay GTL plant. However, we have seen renewed industry interest in offshore South African exploration licenses recently, following significant oil discoveries around the Falkland Islands. With farm-ins by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/812" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:812:1">Total Sa (FP FP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21030" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21030:1">Statoil ASA (STL NO)</a> and Qatar Petroleum in late-2017/early-2018, coupled with robust oil price expectations for the medium-term, we believe the region is well placed for near-term frontier exploration and significant resource upside potential. Following its recent USD 45m private placement, we highlight Africa Energy Corp (AFE TSX) as a well-funded top pick to play this theme.

South Africa has limited historical oil and gas production, with current production of c.25 Kboe/day largely gas-focused for the Mossel Bay GTL plant. However, we have seen renewed industry interest in offshore South African exploration licenses recently, following significant oil discoveries around the Falkland Islands. With farm-ins by Total Sa (FP FP) , Statoil ASA (STL NO) and Qatar Petroleum in late-2017/early-2018, coupled with robust oil price expectations for the medium-term, we believe the region is well placed for near-term frontier exploration and significant resource upside potential. Following its recent USD 45m private placement, we highlight Africa Energy Corp (AFE TSX) as a well-funded top pick to play this theme.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

This has been a crazy market, with dollar, US market and oil strong at the same time, with commodities up in general, but on a hair trigger. It’s a weird mix. But one that pivoted energy plays from dogs to stars once again. Which, of course, could pivot them back down, though not all oil names are created equal.I see three or four streams in my oil plays: (1) energy majors which have been most stable in inching back or overtaking their January highs, (2) energy MLPs, which have recovered back a…

This has been a crazy market, with dollar, US market and oil strong at the same time, with commodities up in general, but on a hair trigger. It’s a weird mix. But one that pivoted energy plays from dogs to stars once again. Which, of course, could pivot them back down, though not all oil names are created equal.I see three or four streams in my oil plays: (1) energy majors which have been most stable in inching back or overtaking their January highs, (2) energy MLPs, which have recovered back a…

Commodities and related stocks are on the rise. Crude oil, industrial metals, and lumber prices are all breaking out to new highs and related energy and materials stocks are reaping the benefits. We expect their outperformance to continue. In this week's report we highlight commodities and actionable associated stocks.

Commodities and related stocks are on the rise. Crude oil, industrial metals, and lumber prices are all breaking out to new highs and related energy and materials stocks are reaping the benefits. We expect their outperformance to continue. In this week's report we highlight commodities and actionable associated stocks.

Opportunities in Global Energy & Materials Stocks

France

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

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TotalEnergies (TTE FP)

Three Emerging Industry Trends in Oil & Gas That Could Drive Growth in M&A After Slow Down in 2Q18

New oil cycle impact on M&A Since falling to the 12-year minimum of $28 per barrel in January 2016, the Brent crude oil price has climbed by...

Massimo Bellino

Global E&Ps: South Africa in Focus

South Africa has limited historical oil and gas production, with current production of c.25 Kboe/day largely gas-focused for the Mossel Bay GTL...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

The Best Way to Play Oil with Cover

This has been a crazy market, with dollar, US market and oil strong at the same time, with commodities up in general, but on a hair trigger. It’s a...

Charles De Trenck

Opportunities in Global Energy & Materials Stocks

Commodities and related stocks are on the rise. Crude oil, industrial metals, and lumber prices are all breaking out to new highs and related...

Vermilion Research

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