FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping its policy options open and likely to delay policy tightening on recent ebbing trends in US growth and global market uncertainty are likely to combine to  support global equity markets and risk appetite.  We anticipate a lengthy consolidation in equities after a tough start to the year, and some recovery in commodity currencies, mostly against the EUR.  Weak Chinese economic growth and more volatile Chinese equities, indicative of domestic financial stress, pose the biggest threat to this more benign near term outlook.  However, a good deal of the negative outlook for Chinese commodity demand may be baked in the cake.

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping its policy options open and likely to delay policy tightening on recent ebbing trends in US growth and global market uncertainty are likely to combine to  support global equity markets and risk appetite.  We anticipate a lengthy consolidation in equities after a tough start to the year, and some recovery in commodity currencies, mostly against the EUR.  Weak Chinese economic growth and more volatile Chinese equities, indicative of domestic financial stress, pose the biggest threat to this more benign near term outlook.  However, a good deal of the negative outlook for Chinese commodity demand may be baked in the cake.

AmpGFX - More Stable Oil and EUR to Underperform Commodity Currencies

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Expect bigger players with financial flexibility to grow inorganically<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/101/original/Gas%20Consol.JPG?1453260844" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5101"></figure>  Source: Bloomberg, DMER• The VLGC market is highly fragmented as 54% vessel capacity is owned by small market players. We believe bigger players with financial flexibility will prefer to grow inorganically and establish their leadership in the sector. In our view, a wave of consolidation will be good for the sector as a whole because it will rationalise the vessel supply and bring efficiency in the pricing mechanism. • Lower…

Expect bigger players with financial flexibility to grow inorganically  Source: Bloomberg, DMER• The VLGC market is highly fragmented as 54% vessel capacity is owned by small market players. We believe bigger players with financial flexibility will prefer to grow inorganically and establish their leadership in the sector. In our view, a wave of consolidation will be good for the sector as a whole because it will rationalise the vessel supply and bring efficiency in the pricing mechanism. • Lower…

LPG Shipping - Consolidation Wave Set to Begin in the VLGC Sector?

2015: LNG/LPG shipping stocks fall prey to low oil prices<img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/094/original/Gas%20Perf.JPG?1453257539" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5094"> Source: Bloomberg, DMER• The downward trend in share prices that started in 4Q14 intensified in 2015 as the rout in oil prices marred investor sentiment. The broad-based selloff in gas shipping stocks wiped out USD 5.7bn of cumulative market capitalisation of our coverage universe, translating into a 49% loss in 2015. • Underwhelmed by the downward spiralling stock prices, some market participants resorted to buying back shares to underpin…

2015: LNG/LPG shipping stocks fall prey to low oil prices Source: Bloomberg, DMER• The downward trend in share prices that started in 4Q14 intensified in 2015 as the rout in oil prices marred investor sentiment. The broad-based selloff in gas shipping stocks wiped out USD 5.7bn of cumulative market capitalisation of our coverage universe, translating into a 49% loss in 2015. • Underwhelmed by the downward spiralling stock prices, some market participants resorted to buying back shares to underpin…

Gas Shipping 2016 - Is Capitulation over for Gas Shipping Stocks?

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to follow was the triangular relationship between the dollar, gold and oil. I always kept the lesson close to heart, and it has been my go to for market reality tests again and again. Over the years I have added equities to the relationship. Perhaps also because they mean a little more today. I don’t know. It was this constant triangulation of price and value that got me into the EUR around 2000 and out again a few years back. And for better or worse, that has kept my equity exposure low in recent years. In 2010-11, however the triangulation led to some insights on gold versus equities which panned out clearly enough. But the analysis now shows something just as volatile if not more.I mapped out some of the relationships in two easy charts going back to the 1960s in order to view the big swings. ... Added at the end are some quick updates on credit watch names making their way into equities. TK Group companies just got a high profile lashing from Morgan Stanley (despite an embarrassing target price change!)

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to follow was the triangular relationship between the dollar, gold and oil. I always kept the lesson close to heart, and it has been my go to for market reality tests again and again. Over the years I have added equities to the relationship. Perhaps also because they mean a little more today. I don’t know. It was this constant triangulation of price and value that got me into the EUR around 2000 and out again a few years back. And for better or worse, that has kept my equity exposure low in recent years. In 2010-11, however the triangulation led to some insights on gold versus equities which panned out clearly enough. But the analysis now shows something just as volatile if not more.I mapped out some of the relationships in two easy charts going back to the 1960s in order to view the big swings. ... Added at the end are some quick updates on credit watch names making their way into equities. TK Group companies just got a high profile lashing from Morgan Stanley (despite an embarrassing target price change!)

Triangulating Oil Back to 60s (And Shipping Credit Watch Updates...)

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage.  This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD and NZD rates have been much more stable than previous episodes of global risk aversion. The Fed is sticking to its outlook for gradual policy tightening, but weak growth is expected to be reported in Q4, activity indicators are weak heading into 2016, medium and longer term inflation expectations are down sharply, and the only plank left supporting rate hike forecasts is the solid labor market.  However, recent unemployment claims have drifted up, and a considerable pause in US rates appears likely.  The US economy has been dragged back to the pack to some extent by the deep fall in oil prices.  While the US energy sector is not all that large, it is much more cyclical than OPEC countries, and activity in this sector has been a factor slowing the US economy.   We may be moving into a phase where confidence in the US economy is waning.  This may tend to weaken the USD in 2016.  Global risk aversion and weaker commodity prices may also weaken commodity and emerging market currencies, but if perceptions on US monetary policy change enough, even these currencies may recover at some point.

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage.  This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD and NZD rates have been much more stable than previous episodes of global risk aversion. The Fed is sticking to its outlook for gradual policy tightening, but weak growth is expected to be reported in Q4, activity indicators are weak heading into 2016, medium and longer term inflation expectations are down sharply, and the only plank left supporting rate hike forecasts is the solid labor market.  However, recent unemployment claims have drifted up, and a considerable pause in US rates appears likely.  The US economy has been dragged back to the pack to some extent by the deep fall in oil prices.  While the US energy sector is not all that large, it is much more cyclical than OPEC countries, and activity in this sector has been a factor slowing the US economy.   We may be moving into a phase where confidence in the US economy is waning.  This may tend to weaken the USD in 2016.  Global risk aversion and weaker commodity prices may also weaken commodity and emerging market currencies, but if perceptions on US monetary policy change enough, even these currencies may recover at some point.

France

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

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TotalEnergies (TTE FP)

AmpGFX - More Stable Oil and EUR to Underperform Commodity Currencies

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping...

Greg Gibbs

LPG Shipping - Consolidation Wave Set to Begin in the VLGC Sector?

Expect bigger players with financial flexibility to grow inorganically Source: Bloomberg, DMER• The VLGC market is highly fragmented as 54% vessel...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Gas Shipping 2016 - Is Capitulation over for Gas Shipping Stocks?

2015: LNG/LPG shipping stocks fall prey to low oil prices Source: Bloomberg, DMER• The downward trend in share prices that started in 4Q14...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Triangulating Oil Back to 60s (And Shipping Credit Watch Updates...)

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to...

Charles De Trenck

Confidence in Fed Hikes Waning

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage. This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD...

Greg Gibbs

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