Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A new policy easing focused on homebuyers was released, building on July announcements, and now an option for all cities</li>
<li>More homebuyers will be able to get preferential terms for mortgages as first-time buyers</li>
<li>A joint notice from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision</li>
</ul>


A new policy easing focused on homebuyers was released, building on July announcements, and now an option for all cities
More homebuyers will be able to get preferential terms for mortgages as first-time buyers
A joint notice from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision


China Property: Policy Announcement Alert

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 4 September.</li>
<li>We highlight 7 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.</li>
<li>The Healthcare industry continues to remain the most underweight and there could be more additions from the industry as we near the 100-stock target.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 4 September.
We highlight 7 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
The Healthcare industry continues to remain the most underweight and there could be more additions from the industry as we near the 100-stock target.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep26

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 7-13 July 2023

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 1-6 July 2023

<ul>
<li>Weekly new home sales data for select cities can serve as a good indicator for the direction of the monthly national-level data - published a few weeks later</li>
<li>Weekly data for 17 major cities with consistent data to the week ending June 25 shows the YTD y/y growth decelerated to +3% from +7% for the prior week</li>
<li>National NBS New Home Sales data for June is due mid-July, and the weekly figures suggest the monthly data would show further weakness on a YTD basis</li>
</ul>


Weekly new home sales data for select cities can serve as a good indicator for the direction of the monthly national-level data - published a few weeks later
Weekly data for 17 major cities with consistent data to the week ending June 25 shows the YTD y/y growth decelerated to +3% from +7% for the prior week
National NBS New Home Sales data for June is due mid-July, and the weekly figures suggest the monthly data would show further weakness on a YTD basis


China Property: Using Weekly Data To Predict Monthly Figures - What To Expect For June 2023

China

Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company primarily engaged in property development, investment property operation, and services. It develops and sells residential, office, and commercial properties, and leases shopping malls and rental housing. The company also provides property management, hotel operation, commercial investment, and smart construction services. Longfor Group was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Longfor (960 HK)

China Property: Policy Announcement Alert

China property: A new policy easing focused on homebuyers was released, building on July announcements, and now an option for all cities.

Robert Ciemniak

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep26

We highlight 7 potential adds to the HSI in September. Healthcare continues to be underrepresented and that could change as we near 100 members....

Brian Freitas

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 7-13 July 2023

A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress, with short summaries in English.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 1-6 July 2023

A weekly curated selection of local Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress and new interesting...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Using Weekly Data To Predict Monthly Figures - What To Expect For June 2023

China Housing: What does the latest weekly new home sales data for select cities indicate for the national NBS figures for June due mid-July?

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)