Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The risk of a pullback remains very real, however at this point the weight of the evidence suggests a meaningful pullback is not imminent. We recap important technical levels across market as well as Actionable Themes within the Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Technology sectors.

The risk of a pullback remains very real, however at this point the weight of the evidence suggests a meaningful pullback is not imminent. We recap important technical levels across market as well as Actionable Themes within the Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Technology sectors.

Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index (SZCOMP INDEX)

China (MSCI China, Shenzhen A Share) offers a plethora of attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s report. Taiwan (TAIEX) is another focus as it is one of the few global indexes that is not yet breaking down. Lastly, Turkey (ISE National 100) appears to offer an attractive pullback opportunity. Within EM, we highlight attractive opportunities across the technology, consumer discretionary, health care and communications sectors.

China (MSCI China, Shenzhen A Share) offers a plethora of attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s report. Taiwan (TAIEX) is another focus as it is one of the few global indexes that is not yet breaking down. Lastly, Turkey (ISE National 100) appears to offer an attractive pullback opportunity. Within EM, we highlight attractive opportunities across the technology, consumer discretionary, health care and communications sectors.

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

China Overseas Land & Investment / Equity Bottom-Up

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

<ul>
<li>State-Owned developers are seizing market share. COLI sales surged 13.9% yoy, while Longfor collapsed 52.1%, permanently shifting industry dominance.</li>
<li>COLI accesses unprecedented liquidity, issuing bonds below the prime rate, while Longfor faces critical refinancing risks and relies heavily on pledged commercial assets.</li>
<li>This pair trade captures the inevitable valuation gap expansion, fully immune to sector volatility, as zero-bankruptcy-risk state entities permanently outprice distressed private operators.</li>
</ul>


State-Owned developers are seizing market share. COLI sales surged 13.9% yoy, while Longfor collapsed 52.1%, permanently shifting industry dominance.
COLI accesses unprecedented liquidity, issuing bonds below the prime rate, while Longfor faces critical refinancing risks and relies heavily on pledged commercial assets.
This pair trade captures the inevitable valuation gap expansion, fully immune to sector volatility, as zero-bankruptcy-risk state entities permanently outprice distressed private operators.


Ultimate Real Estate Arbitrage: Capturing the Sovereign Premium Through LONG COLI / SHORT LONGFOR

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs &amp; trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. We review all major markets and highlight attractive opportunities within Japan, and global real estate developers, and consumer staples stocks.

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs &amp; trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. We review all major markets and highlight attractive opportunities within Japan, and global real estate developers, and consumer staples stocks.

Major Indexes Testing Support & Vulnerable to Further Weakness

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Following on from our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-housing-in-the-guangdong-hong-kong-macau-greater-bay-area-gba" target="_blank">original note</a> on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on February 18, we are presenting the highlights from our inaugural 'Baywatch' report focused on the housing markets on the mainland of the GBA. For the essentials on the GBA, see Bondcritic's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-s-greater-bay-area-the-essential" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29080">China’s Greater Bay Area: The Essential</a>

Following on from our original note on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on February 18, we are presenting the highlights from our inaugural 'Baywatch' report focused on the housing markets on the mainland of the GBA. For the essentials on the GBA, see Bondcritic's China’s Greater Bay Area: The Essential

China Housing: Highlights From the 'Baywatch' Report On The Greater Bay Area (GBA)

China

Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company primarily engaged in property development, investment property operation, and services. It develops and sells residential, office, and commercial properties, and leases shopping malls and rental housing. The company also provides property management, hotel operation, commercial investment, and smart construction services. Longfor Group was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Longfor (960 HK)

Battleground Spot For Global Equities

The risk of a pullback remains very real, however at this point the weight of the evidence suggests a meaningful pullback is not imminent. We recap...

Vermilion Research

EM Outperforming; Favor EM over EAFE

China (MSCI China, Shenzhen A Share) offers a plethora of attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s report. Taiwan (TAIEX) is another focus...

Vermilion Research

Ultimate Real Estate Arbitrage: Capturing the Sovereign Premium Through LONG COLI / SHORT LONGFOR

COLI (+33%) has outperformed Longfor (-9%) in 2026 YTD. We think SOE will continue to outperform POEs, due to market share change. COLI 5M 2026...

Jacob Cheng

Major Indexes Testing Support & Vulnerable to Further Weakness

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs & trade or...

Vermilion Research

China Housing: Highlights From the 'Baywatch' Report On The Greater Bay Area (GBA)

Following on from our original note on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on...

Robert Ciemniak

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