Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Country Garden 2031 USD bond closed at 17.00. It is pricing a near-inevitable default.</li><li>Longfor Group-rated BBB- maturing in 2032, is trading at 54.25, yielding 12.6%.</li><li>The bonds are down 50% since their peak near 109 in February 2021. it is getting into a crisis of confidence mode.</li></ul>

Country Garden 2031 USD bond closed at 17.00. It is pricing a near-inevitable default.Longfor Group-rated BBB- maturing in 2032, is trading at 54.25, yielding 12.6%.The bonds are down 50% since their peak near 109 in February 2021. it is getting into a crisis of confidence mode.

Alibaba, JD.Com, Longfor Group, and Country Garden

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We think CIFI event became the triggering point for PBOC and MOF to urgently roll out stimulus measures (cut mortgage rates and refund individual income tax for qualified home buyers).</li>
<li>Together with better-than-expected Sep sales, we expect a sector rebound in the near term led by short cover.</li>
<li>However, the three driving forces (policy, sales and financing) still indicate a bumpy recovery mainly because 1) policy support is only 60% of that in 2015. 2) Oct sales may weaken again as forecasted by our leading indicator and 3) 4Q property loans may still decline by 25% YoY and most of them may go to SOEs rather than POEs.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


We think CIFI event became the triggering point for PBOC and MOF to urgently roll out stimulus measures (cut mortgage rates and refund individual income tax for qualified home buyers).
Together with better-than-expected Sep sales, we expect a sector rebound in the near term led by short cover.
However, the three driving forces (policy, sales and financing) still indicate a bumpy recovery mainly because 1) policy support is only 60% of that in 2015. 2) Oct sales may weaken again as forecasted by our leading indicator and 3) 4Q property loans may still decline by 25% YoY and most of them may go to SOEs rather than POEs.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – “Skrik” of “Hanzawa Naoki”

<ul><li>Two big headlines drove the short squeeze, helped by the record level of short selling as a percentage of total volume in recent months.</li><li>The recovery remains a low volume rally and short turnover as share continues to be high.</li><li>Most of the short selling remains in Index ETF and very large-cap stocks.</li></ul>

Two big headlines drove the short squeeze, helped by the record level of short selling as a percentage of total volume in recent months.The recovery remains a low volume rally and short turnover as share continues to be high.Most of the short selling remains in Index ETF and very large-cap stocks.

Alibaba, Longfor Group, Country Garden, New World Development

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>SPACs / In Depth: SPACs appear to lose shine in Singapore and Hong Kong</li><li>Taiwan / Chinese envoy warns U.S. against further escalating tensions over Taiwan</li><li>Flood / Northwest China flash floods leave 16 dead, 36 missing</li></ul>

SPACs / In Depth: SPACs appear to lose shine in Singapore and Hong KongTaiwan / Chinese envoy warns U.S. against further escalating tensions over TaiwanFlood / Northwest China flash floods leave 16 dead, 36 missing

CX Daily: SPACs Appear to Lose Shine in Singapore and Hong Kong

<ul><li>The market pivoted late last week from there will be no PBOC rates cut to there being much more Monetary Policy support needed.</li><li>The pivot was the sharp slowdown in Aggregate Financing, Industrial Production, Real estate, and Retail Sales. All it took was a 10-bps cut in one-year MLF.</li><li>Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw HIBOR continue to rise even with currency strength.</li></ul>

The market pivoted late last week from there will be no PBOC rates cut to there being much more Monetary Policy support needed.The pivot was the sharp slowdown in Aggregate Financing, Industrial Production, Real estate, and Retail Sales. All it took was a 10-bps cut in one-year MLF.Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw HIBOR continue to rise even with currency strength.

HSI Index, HSITECH Index, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Unicom

China

Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company primarily engaged in property development, investment property operation, and services. It develops and sells residential, office, and commercial properties, and leases shopping malls and rental housing. The company also provides property management, hotel operation, commercial investment, and smart construction services. Longfor Group was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Longfor (960 HK)

Alibaba, JD.Com, Longfor Group, and Country Garden

Country Garden 2031 USD bond closed at 17.00. It is pricing a near-inevitable default.Longfor Group-rated BBB- maturing in 2032, is trading at...

Untying The Gordian Knot

China Property Sector – “Skrik” of “Hanzawa Naoki”

We think CIFI event became the triggering point for PBOC and MOF to urgently roll out stimulus measures (cut mortgage rates and refund individual...

CMB International

Alibaba, Longfor Group, Country Garden, New World Development

Two big headlines drove the short squeeze, helped by the record level of short selling as a percentage of total volume in recent months.

Untying The Gordian Knot

CX Daily: SPACs Appear to Lose Shine in Singapore and Hong Kong

In Depth: SPACs appear to lose shine in Singapore and Hong Kong. Chinese envoy warns U.S. against further escalating tensions over Taiwan

Caixin Global

HSI Index, HSITECH Index, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Unicom

The market pivoted late last week from there will be no PBOC rates cut to there being much more Monetary Policy support needed.

Untying The Gordian Knot

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)