Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After 40 months of consecutive MoM decline, China's real estate market is on the brink of a somewhat sustained recovery, with particularly, pricing improvement in November;</li>
<li>Pricing is important because it entices buyers back to the market. Before that, transaction volumes have already seen meaningful rebound and the rebound has spread from existing to new homes;</li>
<li>We maintain our view that China had a moderate property bubble in the tradable housing sector but not the overall housing sector. Long term growth potential is still bright.</li>
</ul>


After 40 months of consecutive MoM decline, China's real estate market is on the brink of a somewhat sustained recovery, with particularly, pricing improvement in November;
Pricing is important because it entices buyers back to the market. Before that, transaction volumes have already seen meaningful rebound and the rebound has spread from existing to new homes;
We maintain our view that China had a moderate property bubble in the tradable housing sector but not the overall housing sector. Long term growth potential is still bright.


China's Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End...Will It Carry to 2025?

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 29-Dec 5, 2024

<ul>
<li>There are more 'less negative' signs in the latest data for October/November sales, especially in the weekly data</li>
<li>The policy measures for property, perceived broadly as rather underwhelming, suggest the goal of 'stabilizing it' remains clear, with caution about the excessive support for the sector </li>
<li>In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major cities, and the policy over the past few months</li>
</ul>


There are more 'less negative' signs in the latest data for October/November sales, especially in the weekly data
The policy measures for property, perceived broadly as rather underwhelming, suggest the goal of 'stabilizing it' remains clear, with caution about the excessive support for the sector 
In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major cities, and the policy over the past few months


<ul>
<li>Weekly new home sales data (to Oct 20) shows a strong improvement ('less negative') on a 4-week y/y basis, a sign of a response to the waves of policy support.</li>
<li>We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report looking at 17 major cities and the latest data for the week ending October 20, 2024.</li>
<li>Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.</li>
</ul>


Weekly new home sales data (to Oct 20) shows a strong improvement ('less negative') on a 4-week y/y basis, a sign of a response to the waves of policy support.
We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report looking at 17 major cities and the latest data for the week ending October 20, 2024.
Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.


China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Shows Reaction To Policy Support (To Oct 20, 2024)

<ul>
<li>Minister of MOHURD (Ministry of Housing and Urban Development) said on October 16th that MOHURD planned to renovate 1mn more shanty houses via 100% cash exchange by year end;</li>
<li>We estimate this would inject Rmb0.5-1tn to the hands of shanty town residents. If all these money are putt into the property market, it can drive up transaction by 3-7%;</li>
<li>However, property transaction showed existing home sales growth slowed in September and new home sales remained in negative. The real estate market is in dire need of further stimulus.</li>
</ul>


Minister of MOHURD (Ministry of Housing and Urban Development) said on October 16th that MOHURD planned to renovate 1mn more shanty houses via 100% cash exchange by year end;
We estimate this would inject Rmb0.5-1tn to the hands of shanty town residents. If all these money are putt into the property market, it can drive up transaction by 3-7%;
However, property transaction showed existing home sales growth slowed in September and new home sales remained in negative. The real estate market is in dire need of further stimulus.


China

Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company primarily engaged in property development, investment property operation, and services. It develops and sells residential, office, and commercial properties, and leases shopping malls and rental housing. The company also provides property management, hotel operation, commercial investment, and smart construction services. Longfor Group was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Longfor (960 HK)

China's Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End...Will It Carry to 2025?

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Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 29-Dec 5, 2024

This note is a weekly (Nov 29 - Dec 5, 2024; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

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In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing as of Nov 19, 20204 - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major...

Robert Ciemniak

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Weekly new home sales data (to Oct 20) shows a strong improvement ('less negative') on a 4-week y/y basis, a sign of a response to the waves of...

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Here Is a Trillion Rmb Stimulus

MOHURD planned urban village renovations with monetized resettlement valued at RMB500bn-RMB1tn, could drive up property transaction value by 3%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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China's Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End...Will It Carry to 2025?

​China's real estate market shows signs of rebound with narrowing decline in home prices, potential stabilization post Chinese New Year 2025. KE...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 29-Dec 5, 2024

This note is a weekly (Nov 29 - Dec 5, 2024; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: "Stabilize It"

In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing as of Nov 19, 20204 - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Shows Reaction To Policy Support (To Oct 20, 2024)

Weekly new home sales data (to Oct 20) shows a strong improvement ('less negative') on a 4-week y/y basis, a sign of a response to the waves of...

Robert Ciemniak

Here Is a Trillion Rmb Stimulus

​MOHURD planned urban village renovations with monetized resettlement valued at RMB500bn-RMB1tn, could drive up property transaction value by 3%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China's real estate market shows signs of rebound with narrowing decline in home prices, potential stabilization post Chinese New Year 2025. KE...

MOHURD planned urban village renovations with monetized resettlement valued at RMB500bn-RMB1tn, could drive up property transaction value by 3%...