IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the placement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>’s shares are down -15.7% from the undisturbed price of JPY707 per share (12 May prior to press reports of the placement).</li>
<li>To understand how the shares will trade as the offer is launched, we think it is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements. Pricing date is likely 24 May.</li>
<li>So far, Rakuten’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the placement, Rakuten (4755 JP)’s shares are down -15.7% from the undisturbed price of JPY707 per share (12 May prior to press reports of the placement).
To understand how the shares will trade as the offer is launched, we think it is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements. Pricing date is likely 24 May.
So far, Rakuten’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> is looking to raise around US$2.4bn by selling shares via a Japanese Public Offering and an International Offering as well as through a third-party allotment.</li>
<li>The stock has already dropped 13.7% in the last couple of days on large volumes as the rumours of the offering started to swirl.</li>
<li>The offering prices late next week and passive trackers will be buying stock once the stock settles and this will provide support in the near-term.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten (4755 JP) is looking to raise around US$2.4bn by selling shares via a Japanese Public Offering and an International Offering as well as through a third-party allotment.
The stock has already dropped 13.7% in the last couple of days on large volumes as the rumours of the offering started to swirl.
The offering prices late next week and passive trackers will be buying stock once the stock settles and this will provide support in the near-term.


Rakuten (4755 JP) Offering: Could Drop Some More Before Passive Buying Kicks In

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CA reported 2QFY09/2023 results today. Revenue increased 2.4% YoY to ¥195.6bn (vs consensus ¥191.0bn) while operating profit declined 27.0% YoY to ¥18.8bn (vs consensus ¥18.0bn).</li>
<li>The viewership for AbemaTV has fallen back to pre-FIFA levels and revenue growth from AbemaTV has been on a declining trend.</li>
<li>CA didn't release any gaming titles despite mentioning about 3 for 2022. The company has mentioned about 2 titles for FY09/2023 and the segment seems struggling with producing hit titles.</li>
</ul>


CA reported 2QFY09/2023 results today. Revenue increased 2.4% YoY to ¥195.6bn (vs consensus ¥191.0bn) while operating profit declined 27.0% YoY to ¥18.8bn (vs consensus ¥18.0bn).
The viewership for AbemaTV has fallen back to pre-FIFA levels and revenue growth from AbemaTV has been on a declining trend.
CA didn't release any gaming titles despite mentioning about 3 for 2022. The company has mentioned about 2 titles for FY09/2023 and the segment seems struggling with producing hit titles.


CyberAgent: Growth Avenues Seem Limited and Further Downside to Consensus

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported 1QFY09/2023 results. Revenue declined 2.1% YoY to JPY167.6bn (vs consensus JPY176.1bn) while OP turned negative JPY1.25bn (vs consensus OP of JPY4.1bn.</li>
<li>CA’s largest investment to-date was for FIFA 2022 but top line growth has largely been in line with previous quarter. WAU have dropped to pre-FIFA levels.</li>
<li>Though AbemaTV’s monetisation strategy seems to work, the growth prospects for other two segments are concerning and likely to drag down the consolidated performance.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 1QFY09/2023 results. Revenue declined 2.1% YoY to JPY167.6bn (vs consensus JPY176.1bn) while OP turned negative JPY1.25bn (vs consensus OP of JPY4.1bn.
CA’s largest investment to-date was for FIFA 2022 but top line growth has largely been in line with previous quarter. WAU have dropped to pre-FIFA levels.
Though AbemaTV’s monetisation strategy seems to work, the growth prospects for other two segments are concerning and likely to drag down the consolidated performance.


CyberAgent 1QFY09/2023: Earnings Miss, Struggling Gaming and Huge FIFA Cost Add to the Woes

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>CyberAgent Q1 loss on one-off expenses from World Cup streaming. We see Q1 as a bottom this fiscal year</li>
<li>Share price already discounted weak FY9/23 guidance last October and focus is now on recovery </li>
<li>The World Cup was a success for the Japanese National side and for Abema</li>
</ul>


CyberAgent Q1 loss on one-off expenses from World Cup streaming. We see Q1 as a bottom this fiscal year
Share price already discounted weak FY9/23 guidance last October and focus is now on recovery 
The World Cup was a success for the Japanese National side and for Abema


Japan

CyberAgent, Inc. operates blog media website, Ameba.  The Company also operates internet advertising agency, foreign exchange trading website, and creates PC and mobile contents such as advertisements and games. CyberAgent invests in companies with internet related business.

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CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)

Rakuten (4755 JP): The Current Playbook

So far, Rakuten’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese...

Arun George

Rakuten (4755 JP) Offering: Could Drop Some More Before Passive Buying Kicks In

Rakuten is looking to raise US$2.45bn via a Japanese, International and third-party offering. The stock has dropped 13.7% in the last 2 days and...

Brian Freitas

CyberAgent: Growth Avenues Seem Limited and Further Downside to Consensus

Gaming continue to decline due to absence of new title launches. AbemaTV viewership is falling back to pre-FIFA levels. It seems that CA's business...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

CyberAgent 1QFY09/2023: Earnings Miss, Struggling Gaming and Huge FIFA Cost Add to the Woes

Despite huge cost for FIFA, AbemaTV revenue growth was nothing extraordinary. Weekly Users have already dropped to pre-FIFA levels. Even if AbemaTV...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

CyberAgent (4751) | World Cup Winners

We remain bullish on CyberAgent despite weak Q1 results. The World Cup has given a lasting boost to Abema TV. We expect earnings to trend higher...

Mark Chadwick

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