Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Interbrand’s annual valuation of top brands saw growing numbers of Japanese firms in retail and FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) enter its global brand ranking.
At home, online companies like Zozo and Mercari are also climbing the rankings.

Interbrand’s annual valuation of top brands saw growing numbers of Japanese firms in retail and FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) enter its global brand ranking.
At home, online companies like Zozo and Mercari are also climbing the rankings.

Uniqlo Japan’s Most Valuable Retail Brand

ASEAN Insight Provider

Jessica Irene

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

INDO Snippets brings together substantive and significant on the ground chatter that may potentially have a meaningful impact on the Indonesian Equity Market. 
Today on INDO Snippets:
<ul class="">
<li>The government is to directly allocate some of the tobacco excise tax to cover for Health and Social Security (BPJS) deficit. We'll discuss what it means for the hospitals, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco manufacturers.</li>
<li>An earthquake in Palu, Central Sulawesi has had a devastating impact on the region, with the death toll already exceeding 1,300 people.</li>
<li>Other corporate news: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5230" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1">Pt Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> share buyback and FMCG manufacturer Garudafood IPO.</li>
</ul>

INDO Snippets brings together substantive and significant on the ground chatter that may potentially have a meaningful impact on the Indonesian Equity Market. 
Today on INDO Snippets:

The government is to directly allocate some of the tobacco excise tax to cover for Health and Social Security (BPJS) deficit. We'll discuss what it means for the hospitals, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco manufacturers.
An earthquake in Palu, Central Sulawesi has had a devastating impact on the region, with the death toll already exceeding 1,300 people.
Other corporate news: Pt Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) share buyback and FMCG manufacturer Garudafood IPO.


Indo Snippets: Tobacco Tax for BPJS Deficit, Earthquake in Palu, LPPF Share Buyback, Garudafood IPO

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/034/original/2018-08-16_19-07-34.png?1534672507" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61034"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our '<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Nifty 50</a>' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.<div class="content-highlight">MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.</div>SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post [6178 JP</a>]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.<div class="content-highlight">
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
</div>SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.<div class="content-highlight">
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
</div>TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/038/original/2018-08-19_19-33-03.png?1534674804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61038"></figure>

Source: Japan AnalyticsA GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our 'Nifty 50' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is Japan Post [6178 JP]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The visa-free privilege for Chinese tourists may be being reviewed due to the suspected illegal arms network in Pattaya. Chinese tourists contributed up to 20% of the total in 2024. </li>
<li>As of mid last year, Thailand officially restricted cannabis to medical use only; thus, everyone must obtain a a mandatory prescription, although implementation may be harder. </li>
<li>Alcohol consumption is banned in public places, but it won't impact the alcohol distributors. The 2-5 pm ban on alcohol sales did a lot of damage back then. </li>
</ul>


The visa-free privilege for Chinese tourists may be being reviewed due to the suspected illegal arms network in Pattaya. Chinese tourists contributed up to 20% of the total in 2024. 
As of mid last year, Thailand officially restricted cannabis to medical use only; thus, everyone must obtain a a mandatory prescription, although implementation may be harder. 
Alcohol consumption is banned in public places, but it won't impact the alcohol distributors. The 2-5 pm ban on alcohol sales did a lot of damage back then. 


DOMESTIC  DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ -  The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter and all of these sectors saw declines in weight over the last three months.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most preferred sectors are currently Healthcare, Energy, Other Commercial Products, Utilities and Information Technology and least preferred sectors are Multi-Industry, Metals, Chemicals, Autos, Machinery, Banks and Consumer Services.MARKET OUTLOOK MIXED - With manufacturing sectors comprising 60% of the market and with many domestic sectors now fully-valued, it is hard to see the market making much headway over the rest of the summer.

DOMESTIC  DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ -  The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter and all of these sectors saw declines in weight over the last three months.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most preferred sectors are currently Healthcare, Energy, Other Commercial Products, Utilities and Information Technology and least preferred sectors are Multi-Industry, Metals, Chemicals, Autos, Machinery, Banks and Consumer Services.MARKET OUTLOOK MIXED - With manufacturing sectors comprising 60% of the market and with many domestic sectors now fully-valued, it is hard to see the market making much headway over the rest of the summer.

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

Japan

Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd manufacture and sells beverages and food products worldwide. The company is a part of Suntory Holdings ltd.

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Suntory Beverage & Food (2587 JP)

Uniqlo Japan’s Most Valuable Retail Brand

Interbrand’s annual valuation of top brands saw growing numbers of Japanese firms in retail and FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) enter its global...

Michael Causton

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

On the Ground - Thailand

Chinese tourist visa privilege under review due to illegal arms network in Pattaya; alcohol consumption banned in public places but not impacting...

Henry Soediarko

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

DOMESTIC DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ - The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Uniqlo Japan’s Most Valuable Retail Brand

Interbrand’s annual valuation of top brands saw growing numbers of Japanese firms in retail and FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) enter its global...

Michael Causton

Indo Snippets: Tobacco Tax for BPJS Deficit, Earthquake in Palu, LPPF Share Buyback, Garudafood IPO

INDO Snippets brings together substantive and significant on the ground chatter that may potentially have a meaningful impact on the Indonesian...

Jessica Irene

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

On the Ground - Thailand

​Chinese tourist visa privilege under review due to illegal arms network in Pattaya; alcohol consumption banned in public places but not impacting...

Henry Soediarko

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

DOMESTIC DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ - The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter...

Campbell Gunn

Chinese tourist visa privilege under review due to illegal arms network in Pattaya; alcohol consumption banned in public places but not impacting...