Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Relatively newly formed, increased free float, dominant Shariah market share</li>
<li>All 9 peer Shariah banks combined have less branches than BRIS</li>
<li>57% market share of Shariah lending, where growth is highest</li>
</ul>


Relatively newly formed, increased free float, dominant Shariah market share
All 9 peer Shariah banks combined have less branches than BRIS
57% market share of Shariah lending, where growth is highest


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Fed is likely to lean toward an easing bias as labor conditions weaken, though divisions among members remain.</li><li>Stable inflation, ample liquidity, and BI’s intervention framework support Bank Indonesia’s gradual 2026 rate cuts.</li><li>We expect 2026 INDOGB yields at 5.62%–6.14% (5.9% yr-end baseline), supported by expected rate cuts, stable IDR and foreign ownership.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Fed is likely to lean toward an easing bias as labor conditions weaken, though divisions among members remain.Stable inflation, ample liquidity, and BI’s intervention framework support Bank Indonesia’s gradual 2026 rate cuts.We expect 2026 INDOGB yields at 5.62%–6.14% (5.9% yr-end baseline), supported by expected rate cuts, stable IDR and foreign ownership.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: 2026: Navigating the Rate and Yield Transition

<ul><li>JCI rose 1.5% w-w, outperforming majority of EM peers (except for Korea’s Kospi index +4.4% w-w), bringing YTD performance to 21.9%.</li><li>Leaders were mixed between momentum stocks (FILM +38.8%, MORA +60.1%, IMPC +20.3% w-w) and the fundamental names (TLKM +5.4%, UNTR +10.2%, BBCA +1.0%, ASII +2.3%, BMRI +1.4%); DSSA and BBRI were laggards.</li><li>On sector performance, Heavy Equipment (+10.2% w-w), Telco (+5.0%) and Poultry (+4.5%) outperformed, while Pharma (-3.0% w-w), Property (-1.9%) and Retailers (-1.6%) underperformed.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JCI rose 1.5% w-w, outperforming majority of EM peers (except for Korea’s Kospi index +4.4% w-w), bringing YTD performance to 21.9%.Leaders were mixed between momentum stocks (FILM +38.8%, MORA +60.1%, IMPC +20.3% w-w) and the fundamental names (TLKM +5.4%, UNTR +10.2%, BBCA +1.0%, ASII +2.3%, BMRI +1.4%); DSSA and BBRI were laggards.On sector performance, Heavy Equipment (+10.2% w-w), Telco (+5.0%) and Poultry (+4.5%) outperformed, while Pharma (-3.0% w-w), Property (-1.9%) and Retailers (-1.6%) underperformed.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – ICBP P/E Band – Core Profit

<ul><li>Manufacturing-led FDI now anchors investment growth, lifting GFCF and widening regional benefit with Ex-Java areas benefiting the most.</li><li>Despite rising manufacturing-led FDI, investment momentum is soft. Capex cycle, utilisation, and minimum wages are key factors to watch.</li><li>Wage growth tracks investment in productive regions, highlighting the need to shift UMR rules toward productivity-based, region-specific.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Manufacturing-led FDI now anchors investment growth, lifting GFCF and widening regional benefit with Ex-Java areas benefiting the most.Despite rising manufacturing-led FDI, investment momentum is soft. Capex cycle, utilisation, and minimum wages are key factors to watch.Wage growth tracks investment in productive regions, highlighting the need to shift UMR rules toward productivity-based, region-specific.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: 2026: Reassessing the Investment Cycle

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Indonesia’s growth is driven by steady consumption and increasingly important investment, both forming dual engine for growth expansion.</li><li>We assess three factors: growth drivers, dilemma &amp; policy implication, and conclude different phase of economy require different approaches.</li><li>Consumption drives quick gains, while investment sustains growth, requiring balanced near- and long-term policy support.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia’s growth is driven by steady consumption and increasingly important investment, both forming dual engine for growth expansion.We assess three factors: growth drivers, dilemma &amp; policy implication, and conclude different phase of economy require different approaches.Consumption drives quick gains, while investment sustains growth, requiring balanced near- and long-term policy support.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

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Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)

BRIS - Dominant

BRIS is relatively newly formed, with an incredibly dominant Shariah lending market share, where growth is high and can continue with strong asset...

Daniel Tabbush

Macro Strategy: 2026: Navigating the Rate and Yield Transition

We expect 2026 INDOGB yields at 5.62%–6.14% (5.9% yr-end baseline), supported by expected rate cuts, stable IDR and foreign ownership.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – ICBP P/E Band – Core Profit

JCI rose 1.5% w-w, outperforming majority of EM peers (except for Korea’s Kospi index +4.4% w-w), bringing YTD performance to 21.9%.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: 2026: Reassessing the Investment Cycle

Manufacturing-led FDI now anchors investment growth, lifting GFCF and widening regional benefit with Ex-Java areas benefiting the most.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: 2026: The Dual Levers

Indonesia’s growth is driven by steady consumption and increasingly important investment, both forming dual engine for growth expansion.

BRI Danareksa Research

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