Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is very high delta in 30-year JGB yields in the recent month, and preceding periods</li>
<li>This is very much unlike what we see with the 1-year JGBs, different implications.</li>
<li>Insurance companies are the major holders of long-dated JGBs where banks have low duration on their bond holdings.</li>
</ul>


There is very high delta in 30-year JGB yields in the recent month, and preceding periods
This is very much unlike what we see with the 1-year JGBs, different implications.
Insurance companies are the major holders of long-dated JGBs where banks have low duration on their bond holdings.


Japan - Sharply Higher Long-Dated JGBs Should Mean Sizable Valuation Losses at Insurers, Not Banks

<ul>
<li>Of the nearly 200 financials in Japan, on average shares outstanding are up 3% over the past several years </li>
<li>Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, and Yamaguchi Financial are at the extreme opposite end with shares outstanding at -22%</li>
<li>MS&amp;AD features well ranking #11 of financials in our sample, with shares outstanding at -7%, adding well to its commitment on dividends, cross-shareholdings sales</li>
</ul>


Of the nearly 200 financials in Japan, on average shares outstanding are up 3% over the past several years 
Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, and Yamaguchi Financial are at the extreme opposite end with shares outstanding at -22%
MS&amp;AD features well ranking #11 of financials in our sample, with shares outstanding at -7%, adding well to its commitment on dividends, cross-shareholdings sales


Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

<ul>
<li>Japan's banks can benefit from continued strong loan demand, with signals from the Tankan Survey and from the loan officer survey</li>
<li>The story for Japan's banks is not only about unwinding cross shareholdings and rising interest rates, but it's also about core lending</li>
<li>With bettering loan volume, with more demand and inclination to lend, banks can see benign credit metrics, further supporting profit delta</li>
</ul>


Japan's banks can benefit from continued strong loan demand, with signals from the Tankan Survey and from the loan officer survey
The story for Japan's banks is not only about unwinding cross shareholdings and rising interest rates, but it's also about core lending
With bettering loan volume, with more demand and inclination to lend, banks can see benign credit metrics, further supporting profit delta


Japan's Banks - Lending Is Strong, Loan Officer Survey Suggests More, Credit Costs Can Be Low

<ul>
<li>Comments today from BOJ suggest we are nearing the end of negative interest rates in Japan, which can mean an immediate boost to net interest income for Japan's banks</li>
<li>Many banks have cash and deposits with the BOJ at high levels, where yields are negative, and this can be the first big positive delta to bank's income</li>
<li>Credit metrics in Japan are improving and loan growth is accelerating, this is generally at odds with other major banking systems, US, UK, Singapore</li>
</ul>


Comments today from BOJ suggest we are nearing the end of negative interest rates in Japan, which can mean an immediate boost to net interest income for Japan's banks
Many banks have cash and deposits with the BOJ at high levels, where yields are negative, and this can be the first big positive delta to bank's income
Credit metrics in Japan are improving and loan growth is accelerating, this is generally at odds with other major banking systems, US, UK, Singapore


Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Server related names higher after some big sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI should be a positive for Nidec</li>
<li>Watch for P&amp;C weakness in Japan following losses for peers overnight as Hurricane Milton intensifies as it approaches the Florida coast line</li>
<li>Oil back above $80 will continue to push related names higher; possible refiner pair with 4 days of TPX FFW selling for recent outperformer Idemitsu</li>
</ul>


Server related names higher after some big sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI should be a positive for Nidec
Watch for P&amp;C weakness in Japan following losses for peers overnight as Hurricane Milton intensifies as it approaches the Florida coast line
Oil back above $80 will continue to push related names higher; possible refiner pair with 4 days of TPX FFW selling for recent outperformer Idemitsu


Japan Morning Connection: Oil Through $80 While P&C Take a Hit on Hurricane Milton

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Japan - Sharply Higher Long-Dated JGBs Should Mean Sizable Valuation Losses at Insurers, Not Banks

Japan's insurance companies are more exposed and highly exposed to rising long-dated JGB yields, unlike for banks. The former will have more...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

Japan Post Bank in spotlight now, and new data shows improving credit growth and demand, from Tankan Survey and from loan officer survey.

Daniel Tabbush

Japan's Banks - Lending Is Strong, Loan Officer Survey Suggests More, Credit Costs Can Be Low

Japan's banks are seeing good loan volume and diffusion index on Tankan Survey and loan officer survey suggests there is more to come. Selling...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

The BOJ finally raised short term rates today from 25bps to 50bps. This is an historic rate rise. Japan's banks can see better income from JGBs,...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Morning Connection: Oil Through $80 While P&C Take a Hit on Hurricane Milton

Positive sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI could benefit Nidec; P&C weakness expected due to Hurricane Milton; Oil above $80...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan - Sharply Higher Long-Dated JGBs Should Mean Sizable Valuation Losses at Insurers, Not Banks

Japan's insurance companies are more exposed and highly exposed to rising long-dated JGB yields, unlike for banks. The former will have more...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

Japan Post Bank in spotlight now, and new data shows improving credit growth and demand, from Tankan Survey and from loan officer survey.

Daniel Tabbush

Japan's Banks - Lending Is Strong, Loan Officer Survey Suggests More, Credit Costs Can Be Low

Japan's banks are seeing good loan volume and diffusion index on Tankan Survey and loan officer survey suggests there is more to come. Selling...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

The BOJ finally raised short term rates today from 25bps to 50bps. This is an historic rate rise. Japan's banks can see better income from JGBs,...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Morning Connection: Oil Through $80 While P&C Take a Hit on Hurricane Milton

​Positive sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI could benefit Nidec; P&C weakness expected due to Hurricane Milton; Oil above $80...

Andrew Jackson

Positive sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI could benefit Nidec; P&C weakness expected due to Hurricane Milton; Oil above $80...