Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.</li>
<li>In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.</li>
<li>This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates


Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Sany Heavy Industry / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Sany Heavy Industry is target price of CNY21.1 per share. This represents 7.6% lower than current price of CNY22.83 per share.</li>
<li>IPO price of Sany Heavy is expected to be set between HKD20.30 and HKD21.30. Our valuation analysis suggests lack of a meaningful upside for Sany Heavy Industry listing in HK.</li>
<li>There are still lack of a major turnaround of the property market in China and this could continue to negatively impact the overall construction equipment market in China.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Sany Heavy Industry is target price of CNY21.1 per share. This represents 7.6% lower than current price of CNY22.83 per share.
IPO price of Sany Heavy is expected to be set between HKD20.30 and HKD21.30. Our valuation analysis suggests lack of a meaningful upside for Sany Heavy Industry listing in HK.
There are still lack of a major turnaround of the property market in China and this could continue to negatively impact the overall construction equipment market in China.


Sany Heavy Industry IPO Valuation Analysis

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Komatsu's operating profits for FY3/24 of Y607 billion (+24% YoY) surpassed estimates on strong U.S. equipment sales</li>
<li>Komatsu guides for FY3/25 operating profits of ¥557 billion (-8.3% YoY), assuming ¥140/US$</li>
<li>We believe that the market remains too focused on the near-term growth slowdown, while we believe that Komatsu is attractively priced at under 10x EV/EBIT</li>
</ul>


Komatsu's operating profits for FY3/24 of Y607 billion (+24% YoY) surpassed estimates on strong U.S. equipment sales
Komatsu guides for FY3/25 operating profits of ¥557 billion (-8.3% YoY), assuming ¥140/US$
We believe that the market remains too focused on the near-term growth slowdown, while we believe that Komatsu is attractively priced at under 10x EV/EBIT


Komatsu (6301) | 6% TSR and Clean Energy Winner

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.</li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. </li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. 


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Overseas: SPX +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.3%; Illumina +7%, Microsoft -1%, Intel -2%</li>
<li>Today: NKY Futs +0.1% v cash. JPY/$146; Kewpie and Ezaki Glico raising prices; Appier helping Nexon</li>
<li>JapanX: Komatsu Expands Construction Software Arsenal with iVolve Acquisition for Fleet Management Services</li>
</ul>


Overseas: SPX +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.3%; Illumina +7%, Microsoft -1%, Intel -2%
Today: NKY Futs +0.1% v cash. JPY/$146; Kewpie and Ezaki Glico raising prices; Appier helping Nexon
JapanX: Komatsu Expands Construction Software Arsenal with iVolve Acquisition for Fleet Management Services


Ohayo Japan | Five Weeks of Gains; Komatsu Acquires IVolve

Japan

KOMATSU LTD. manufactures and sells construction and mining machinery, including excavators, bulldozers, and wheel loaders.  The Company, operating on a global scale, also produces forklift trucks and engineering equipment such as press system.

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Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Sany Heavy Industry IPO Valuation Analysis

Sany Heavy priced its IPO at HK$21.3 per share (at the high end of the IPO price range). This is just 2% lower than our base case valuation of the...

Douglas Kim

Komatsu (6301) | 6% TSR and Clean Energy Winner

Komatsu stands to benefit from the global shift towards clean energy technologies, which drive demand for critical minerals essential in their...

Mark Chadwick

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

The 90% min acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer. Risk/reward is unfavourable as the downside (9.9% to undisturbed...

Arun George

Ohayo Japan | Five Weeks of Gains; Komatsu Acquires IVolve

Global markets rise, with Illumina surging despite Microsoft and Intel declining. In Japan, Komatsu acquires iVolve to enhance fleet management...

Mark Chadwick

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52-week Range

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Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Sany Heavy Industry IPO Valuation Analysis

Sany Heavy priced its IPO at HK$21.3 per share (at the high end of the IPO price range). This is just 2% lower than our base case valuation of the...

Douglas Kim

Komatsu (6301) | 6% TSR and Clean Energy Winner

Komatsu stands to benefit from the global shift towards clean energy technologies, which drive demand for critical minerals essential in their...

Mark Chadwick

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

The 90% min acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer. Risk/reward is unfavourable as the downside (9.9% to undisturbed...

Arun George

Ohayo Japan | Five Weeks of Gains; Komatsu Acquires IVolve

​Global markets rise, with Illumina surging despite Microsoft and Intel declining. In Japan, Komatsu acquires iVolve to enhance fleet management...

Mark Chadwick

Global markets rise, with Illumina surging despite Microsoft and Intel declining. In Japan, Komatsu acquires iVolve to enhance fleet management...