Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The apparel/fashion sector made a partial recovery last year but was still down on 2019. 2022 looks a lot brighter with customers now back in stores including even inbound tourists. </li>
<li>The same challenges that the sector faced before Covid remain but there is plenty of room to grow by taking share from the less innovative competitors – i.e. more consolidation.</li>
<li>The sector saw the highest fall in store numbers in its history last year, but there was more investment in creating a compelling omnichannel model suited to Japan’s particular market.</li>
</ul>


The apparel/fashion sector made a partial recovery last year but was still down on 2019. 2022 looks a lot brighter with customers now back in stores including even inbound tourists. 
The same challenges that the sector faced before Covid remain but there is plenty of room to grow by taking share from the less innovative competitors – i.e. more consolidation.
The sector saw the highest fall in store numbers in its history last year, but there was more investment in creating a compelling omnichannel model suited to Japan’s particular market.


Japan's Apparel/Fashion Sector Big Review: Momentum Builds for Full Recovery

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Although spending on non-necessities withered from March 2020 onwards, some low-cost retailers of discretionary items continued to grow. </li>
<li>Workman’s mix of high cost performance and engagement with the ever more active outdoor market has, and will, support expansion, even if same-store sales growth has slowed.</li>
<li>Future category expansion will deliver higher same-store sales as well as top line growth. 1,500 stores (from 1,000) is certain but 2,000 is possible thanks to new categories like footwear.</li>
</ul>


Although spending on non-necessities withered from March 2020 onwards, some low-cost retailers of discretionary items continued to grow. 
Workman’s mix of high cost performance and engagement with the ever more active outdoor market has, and will, support expansion, even if same-store sales growth has slowed.
Future category expansion will deliver higher same-store sales as well as top line growth. 1,500 stores (from 1,000) is certain but 2,000 is possible thanks to new categories like footwear.


2023 High Conviction: Workman's Cost Performance Will Beat the Competition

<ul>
<li>Like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workman-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1" rel="noopener">Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honeys-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3829:1" rel="noopener">Honeys Holdings Co., Ltd. (2792 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a> has been a beneficiary of both household budget worries during Covid and inflation concerns since. </li>
<li>The apparel retailer has also worked hard to develop better cost performance ranges and more exciting marketing through collaborations with influencers, helping regain footfall levels.</li>
<li>Shimamura has clearly regained momentum and looks set to continue to benefit from consumer fears over inflation and ongoing shifts in spending towards low-price retailers.</li>
</ul>


Like Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP) and Honeys Holdings Co., Ltd. (2792 JP), Shimamura (8227 JP) has been a beneficiary of both household budget worries during Covid and inflation concerns since. 
The apparel retailer has also worked hard to develop better cost performance ranges and more exciting marketing through collaborations with influencers, helping regain footfall levels.
Shimamura has clearly regained momentum and looks set to continue to benefit from consumer fears over inflation and ongoing shifts in spending towards low-price retailers.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In February 2021 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nabtesco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13176:1" rel="noopener">Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP)</a> announced it would sell half of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP)</a> to concentrate on its own products and growth. </li>
<li>It was a not-very-well-held secret Nabtesco had invested wanting to own HDS. HDS didn't want to be owned. Eventually Nabtesco gave up. So they sold over time into low float.</li>
<li>Now they are letting go of the other half. Sale structure means ongoing pressure.</li>
</ul>


In February 2021 Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP) announced it would sell half of its stake in Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) to concentrate on its own products and growth. 
It was a not-very-well-held secret Nabtesco had invested wanting to own HDS. HDS didn't want to be owned. Eventually Nabtesco gave up. So they sold over time into low float.
Now they are letting go of the other half. Sale structure means ongoing pressure.


Nabtesco and Harmonic Drive - The Second Half of Splitsville So Pressure to Continue

<ul>
<li>Japan may have discovered home decoration and DIY later than some markets but it has made up for this with a convert’s enthusiasm. </li>
<li>In the last decade, the market has grown around 50% and a host of brands and retailers have flourished.</li>
<li>These include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> and the home centres like Cainz and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">DCM Holdings (3050 JP). </a> The long-term outlook remains positive.</li>
</ul>


Japan may have discovered home decoration and DIY later than some markets but it has made up for this with a convert’s enthusiasm. 
In the last decade, the market has grown around 50% and a host of brands and retailers have flourished.
These include Nitori Holdings (9843 JP), Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) and the home centres like Cainz and DCM Holdings (3050 JP).  The long-term outlook remains positive.


Nitori, Muji Still Benefitting from a Flourishing Japan Home Decor Market

Japan

WORKMAN CO., LTD. designs, produces, and retails work uniforms and related goods including work gloves and safety shoes.  The Company operates its own stores and franchise stores located throughout eastern Japan.

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Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)

Japan's Apparel/Fashion Sector Big Review: Momentum Builds for Full Recovery

Japan's fashion and apparel sector was severely hit by the pandemic and the loss of tourism. With wallets full, Japanese are now spending again...

Michael Causton

2023 High Conviction: Workman's Cost Performance Will Beat the Competition

Some analysts have dismissed Workman as past its peak because S-S sales have fallen. This is a mistake: top line expansion and income growth will...

Michael Causton

Shimamura Set for Another Record

Shimamura is back doing what it does best: low cost apparel for women and their families, a formula that is just what consumers are looking for...

Michael Causton

Nabtesco and Harmonic Drive - The Second Half of Splitsville So Pressure to Continue

Nabtesco (6268) is selling the other half of its original stake in Harmonic Drive Systems (6324). The sale is a big part of Real World Float. HDS...

Travis Lundy

Nitori, Muji Still Benefitting from a Flourishing Japan Home Decor Market

Japan's home decoration market grew fast in the pandemic but has been growing for 10 years and will continue to outperform other consumer...

Michael Causton

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