ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> saw its 3Q2023 result swing back to a loss after turning on investment at Shopee during 3Q2023 in the face of competition.</li>
<li>The company was open about its renewed investment in growth during the previous quarter in the face of threats from TikTok Shop, which may have lessened post its Indonesia expulsion. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd</a> may not have engendered itself with investors impressed with its ability to pivot like no other to actual profitability, now introducing an element of uncertainty. Valuations reflect this.</li>
</ul>



Sea Ltd (SE US) saw its 3Q2023 result swing back to a loss after turning on investment at Shopee during 3Q2023 in the face of competition.
The company was open about its renewed investment in growth during the previous quarter in the face of threats from TikTok Shop, which may have lessened post its Indonesia expulsion. 

Sea Ltd may not have engendered itself with investors impressed with its ability to pivot like no other to actual profitability, now introducing an element of uncertainty. Valuations reflect this.


Sea Ltd (SE US) - Paying the Price for Market Leadership

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Trading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> shares this year may not be as straightforward as the previous year.</li>
<li>With the share price at pre-COVID levels, swing highs could be difficult to swallow for those of us who would like to remain short Sea Ltd in 2023.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, we would be short Sea-Ltd at the turn of the year as we think valuation multiples could fall to a new all-time low with all segments facing stiff challenges.</li>
</ul>


Trading Sea Ltd (SE US) shares this year may not be as straightforward as the previous year.
With the share price at pre-COVID levels, swing highs could be difficult to swallow for those of us who would like to remain short Sea Ltd in 2023.
Nonetheless, we would be short Sea-Ltd at the turn of the year as we think valuation multiples could fall to a new all-time low with all segments facing stiff challenges.


Trading Sea Ltd in 2023: It Is Still The Same Beast

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> shares were up 36% yesterday following a relatively small top-line beat of 4.8% and a narrower-than-expected operating loss of $495.6m (consensus: $581.9) through rigorous cost-cutting.</li>
<li>The share price move sets-up nicely to make gains on the short-side, as e-commerce and fintech remain unprofitable after cutting-down necessary expenses such as logistics and senior management cash compensation.</li>
<li>We estimate the fair value of Sea Ltd at around $10.0bn EV compared to the current EV of $33.1bn, which implies a downside of 66% to Sea’s post-3Q22 price.</li>
</ul>



Sea Ltd (SE US) shares were up 36% yesterday following a relatively small top-line beat of 4.8% and a narrower-than-expected operating loss of $495.6m (consensus: $581.9) through rigorous cost-cutting.
The share price move sets-up nicely to make gains on the short-side, as e-commerce and fintech remain unprofitable after cutting-down necessary expenses such as logistics and senior management cash compensation.
We estimate the fair value of Sea Ltd at around $10.0bn EV compared to the current EV of $33.1bn, which implies a downside of 66% to Sea’s post-3Q22 price.


Sea Ltd 3Q22 Results - Set up Nicely To Make Big Gains On The Short Side

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Multiple new agencies have been reporting that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. </li>
<li>The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.</li>
</ul>


Multiple new agencies have been reporting that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. 
The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.
In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.


Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

<ul>
<li>Sea's share price dropped 14% yesterday following its 2Q22 results as $2.9bn revenue ($3.0bn for consensus) and $659.4m operating loss excluding goodwill impairment ($594m for consensus) were weaker than expected.</li>
<li>After lowering the e-commerce revenue guidance by $400m in 1Q22, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)'</a>s decision to suspend 2022 e-commerce revenue guidance in 2Q22 is an early indication of difficulties ahead.</li>
<li>Digital Entertainment's gross bookings are down another 10% QoQ in 2Q22, which indicates that Free Fire’s revenue and profitability could continue to go down during the second half of 2022.</li>
</ul>


Sea's share price dropped 14% yesterday following its 2Q22 results as $2.9bn revenue ($3.0bn for consensus) and $659.4m operating loss excluding goodwill impairment ($594m for consensus) were weaker than expected.
After lowering the e-commerce revenue guidance by $400m in 1Q22, Sea Ltd (SE US)'s decision to suspend 2022 e-commerce revenue guidance in 2Q22 is an early indication of difficulties ahead.
Digital Entertainment's gross bookings are down another 10% QoQ in 2Q22, which indicates that Free Fire’s revenue and profitability could continue to go down during the second half of 2022.


Singapore

Sea Limited offers information technology services. The Company provides online personal computer and mobile digital content, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Sea serves customers worldwide.

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Sea (SE US)

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Paying the Price for Market Leadership

Sea Ltd may not have engendered itself with investors impressed with its ability to pivot like no other to actual profitability, now introducing an...

Angus Mackintosh

Trading Sea Ltd in 2023: It Is Still The Same Beast

Trading Sea Ltd shares this year may not be as straightforward as the previous year. With the share price at pre-COVID levels, swing highs could be...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sea Ltd 3Q22 Results - Set up Nicely To Make Big Gains On The Short Side

We think shares are set up nicely to make gains on the short-side as e-commerce and fintech remain unprofitable after cutting down necessary...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

There have been multiple reports that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. We look at Tencent's...

Sumeet Singh

Sea Ltd: Tough Times Ahead

After lowering the e-commerce revenue guidance by $400m in 1Q22, Sea Ltd (SE US)'s decision to suspend 2022 e-commerce revenue guidance in 2Q22 is...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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