Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>On 25 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8656:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS)</a> announced plans to conduct a rights offering capital raise of nearly 2.4 trillion won (US$1.6 billion). The stock tanked 30% last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/douglas-kim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342" rel="noopener">Douglas Kim</a> suggested the expected rights offering price is 33,300 won, 9.5% lower than the closing price on 26 March.</li>
<li>Price crashed the P75 downside band, signaling extreme selling velocity toward the 31,350 support (our model's MAX drawdown for this pattern). The move currently tracks as an oversold tail-risk event.
</li>
</ul>


On 25 March, Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS) announced plans to conduct a rights offering capital raise of nearly 2.4 trillion won (US$1.6 billion). The stock tanked 30% last week.

Douglas Kim suggested the expected rights offering price is 33,300 won, 9.5% lower than the closing price on 26 March.
Price crashed the P75 downside band, signaling extreme selling velocity toward the 31,350 support (our model's MAX drawdown for this pattern). The move currently tracks as an oversold tail-risk event.



Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS) Tactical Outlook Following the Rights Offering 'Crash'

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

Hanwha Solutions / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Deal size is the key swing factor: KRW 2.1tn rights offering, 20% discount, 0.335 allocation ratio. Even with Hanwha Corp 120% take-up, KRW 1.2tn still hits the market.</li>
<li>Tighter 1st-to-2nd pricing gap reduces discount volatility, setting up a cleaner rights arb, but Hanwha Solutions’ thin SSF liquidity means short hedges will need a creative approach.</li>
<li>FSS is reviewing the deal over use of proceeds, but with Hanwha Corp pre-signaling full oversub, regulatory risk looks low and unlikely to block the rights offering.</li>
</ul>


Deal size is the key swing factor: KRW 2.1tn rights offering, 20% discount, 0.335 allocation ratio. Even with Hanwha Corp 120% take-up, KRW 1.2tn still hits the market.
Tighter 1st-to-2nd pricing gap reduces discount volatility, setting up a cleaner rights arb, but Hanwha Solutions’ thin SSF liquidity means short hedges will need a creative approach.
FSS is reviewing the deal over use of proceeds, but with Hanwha Corp pre-signaling full oversub, regulatory risk looks low and unlikely to block the rights offering.


Structural Features of Hanwha Solutions Rights Offering

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Derivatives

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

<ul>
<li>WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.</li>
<li>We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.</li>
<li>
Most overbought:  Nikkei 225, Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP) Most oversold: NIFTY, CATL (300750 CH), GLD, Zijin Mining, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</li>
</ul>


WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.

Most overbought:  Nikkei 225, Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP) Most oversold: NIFTY, CATL (300750 CH), GLD, Zijin Mining, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)


WEEKLY Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setup: CATL, Advantest Corp, Tokyo Electron, Zijin Mining, NIFTY

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2025.</li>
<li>A whopping 87% (33 out of 38) holdcos/quasi holdcos outperformed their opco counterparts in the past three months, which is one of the best ever in the past two decades.</li>
<li>This appears to be one of the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" trading opportunities. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2025.
A whopping 87% (33 out of 38) holdcos/quasi holdcos outperformed their opco counterparts in the past three months, which is one of the best ever in the past two decades.
This appears to be one of the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" trading opportunities. 


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2025

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Derivatives

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL-SR SP)

<ul>
<li>WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.</li>
<li>We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.</li>
<li>
Most overbought: Meta, Hitachi Ltd, SK Hynix  Most oversold: Meituan, ICICI Bank, HKEX and Clearing, Ping An Insurance, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Komatsu, Hanwha Solutions, Zijin Mining, Shin Etsu Chemical</li>
</ul>


WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.

Most overbought: Meta, Hitachi Ltd, SK Hynix  Most oversold: Meituan, ICICI Bank, HKEX and Clearing, Ping An Insurance, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Komatsu, Hanwha Solutions, Zijin Mining, Shin Etsu Chemical


WEEKLY Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setup: SK Hynix, Meituan, ICICI, Ping An Insurance, CATL, Zijin M

South Korea

Hanwha Solution Corporation is a chemical manufacturer.  The Company's products include a line of chlorine alkali chemicals, such as caustic soda, chlorine, and hydrochloric acid.  Hanwha also produces resins including low density polyethylene (LDPE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC).

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Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS)