Chairman, sgtradex

Tan Chin-Hwee

Chairman

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

I have had the highest respect of SFC  but it may be a dark day for those who engage in the practice of financial research and due diligence with the controversial lawsuit by the regulator SFC in HK against the rating agency Moody's for their piece on China.Lawsuit come in just in time for the movie "10 Years" to achieve the top Movie Award-maybe the producers should have another segment in the Movie about Hong Kong's days as an international financial centre in the past to now a Chinese…

I have had the highest respect of SFC  but it may be a dark day for those who engage in the practice of financial research and due diligence with the controversial lawsuit by the regulator SFC in HK against the rating agency Moody's for their piece on China.Lawsuit come in just in time for the movie "10 Years" to achieve the top Movie Award-maybe the producers should have another segment in the Movie about Hong Kong's days as an international financial centre in the past to now a Chinese…

Moody's Vs SFC - A Dark Day for Hong Kong?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>New World announced FY25 results, market reaction was initially negative, due to losses to shareholders.  Stock was down 10% post open but rebounded quickly to recover all the losses</li>
<li>However, we think the market has neglected the other positives: strong contract sales, resilient IP earnings, improved total debt, stabilized gearing and lower borrow cost</li>
<li>Market is forward-looking, we think NWD, as a leveraged play, will benefit the most in rate cut cycle.  At current valuation (0.12x PB) – we continue to stay bullish</li>
</ul>


New World announced FY25 results, market reaction was initially negative, due to losses to shareholders.  Stock was down 10% post open but rebounded quickly to recover all the losses
However, we think the market has neglected the other positives: strong contract sales, resilient IP earnings, improved total debt, stabilized gearing and lower borrow cost
Market is forward-looking, we think NWD, as a leveraged play, will benefit the most in rate cut cycle.  At current valuation (0.12x PB) – we continue to stay bullish


A Contrarian View on New World: Market Is Forward-Looking, Bet on Leveraged Play in Rate Cut Cycle

<ul>
<li>The Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, which is largely anticipated by the market.  The SEP median estimate indicates 2 more cuts in 2025</li>
<li>Regarding HK policy address, there are no meaningful positive surprise related to the property market.  It highlights the importance of Northern Metropolis development, and improving home ownership, and talent admission</li>
<li>Investors should see-through these and focus on big picture: macro developments, monetary policy, and sector fundamentals.  Pick company with attractive valuation and catalysts: NWD, Link REIT, CICT, COLI, VNET, GDS</li>
</ul>


The Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, which is largely anticipated by the market.  The SEP median estimate indicates 2 more cuts in 2025
Regarding HK policy address, there are no meaningful positive surprise related to the property market.  It highlights the importance of Northern Metropolis development, and improving home ownership, and talent admission
Investors should see-through these and focus on big picture: macro developments, monetary policy, and sector fundamentals.  Pick company with attractive valuation and catalysts: NWD, Link REIT, CICT, COLI, VNET, GDS


RE Stock Implications from Fed's Rate Cut and HK PA: Focus on Big Picture, Macro and Sector Drivers

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

<ul>
<li>The largest REIT in Asia, with enough liquidity for most funds. Has a great set of neighborhood malls across Hong Kong enjoying recurring income from food &amp; beverage, restaurants, etc</li>
<li>Suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic but DPU has started growing again. Rights issue a misstep but the leverage is now acceptable. New Blackrock CIO bodes well for M&amp;A. </li>
<li>REIT trades at 7% yield vs 4% historically. Essentially an interest rate bet. Will probably be included in the Stock Connect program soon, expect an announcement on 19 April. </li>
</ul>


The largest REIT in Asia, with enough liquidity for most funds. Has a great set of neighborhood malls across Hong Kong enjoying recurring income from food &amp; beverage, restaurants, etc
Suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic but DPU has started growing again. Rights issue a misstep but the leverage is now acceptable. New Blackrock CIO bodes well for M&amp;A. 
REIT trades at 7% yield vs 4% historically. Essentially an interest rate bet. Will probably be included in the Stock Connect program soon, expect an announcement on 19 April. 


Hong Kong

Link REIT is Asia's largest real estate investment trust, managing a diversified portfolio of retail facilities, car parks, offices, and logistics assets across Hong Kong, Chinese Mainland, Australia, Singapore, and the UK. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Link REIT (823 HK)

Moody's Vs SFC - A Dark Day for Hong Kong?

I have had the highest respect of SFC but it may be a dark day for those who engage in the practice of financial research and due diligence with...

Tan Chin-Hwee

It Is All Playing Out with China's Banks

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to...

Daniel Tabbush

A Contrarian View on New World: Market Is Forward-Looking, Bet on Leveraged Play in Rate Cut Cycle

After FY25 results, NWD was down 10% post Monday's open but recovered all the losses. We are forward looking and think the worst is behind us -...

Jacob Cheng

RE Stock Implications from Fed's Rate Cut and HK PA: Focus on Big Picture, Macro and Sector Drivers

Investors should see through Fed's 25bps rate cut and HK's Policy Address, and focus on macro development, geopolitical risks, as well as sector...

Jacob Cheng

Link REIT (823 HK)

Asia's largest REIT, with strong liquidity and neighborhood malls in Hong Kong, is recovering post-COVID. 7% dividend yield plus gradual DPU...

Asian Century Stocks

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Moody's Vs SFC - A Dark Day for Hong Kong?

I have had the highest respect of SFC but it may be a dark day for those who engage in the practice of financial research and due diligence with...

Tan Chin-Hwee

It Is All Playing Out with China's Banks

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to...

Daniel Tabbush

A Contrarian View on New World: Market Is Forward-Looking, Bet on Leveraged Play in Rate Cut Cycle

After FY25 results, NWD was down 10% post Monday's open but recovered all the losses. We are forward looking and think the worst is behind us -...

Jacob Cheng

RE Stock Implications from Fed's Rate Cut and HK PA: Focus on Big Picture, Macro and Sector Drivers

Investors should see through Fed's 25bps rate cut and HK's Policy Address, and focus on macro development, geopolitical risks, as well as sector...

Jacob Cheng

Link REIT (823 HK)

​Asia's largest REIT, with strong liquidity and neighborhood malls in Hong Kong, is recovering post-COVID. 7% dividend yield plus gradual DPU...

Asian Century Stocks

Asia's largest REIT, with strong liquidity and neighborhood malls in Hong Kong, is recovering post-COVID. 7% dividend yield plus gradual DPU...