Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-22-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28307:1" rel="noopener">BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN)</a> will rebalance on 17 March while the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> will rebalance on 29 March.</li>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the indices in March but there will be capping changes for the stocks and there is a reasonable impact on some stocks.</li>
<li>There are stocks that will have opposing flows on the two days, while there are some stocks that will have same way flows from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


The BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN) will rebalance on 17 March while the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) will rebalance on 29 March.
There are no constituent changes for the indices in March but there will be capping changes for the stocks and there is a reasonable impact on some stocks.
There are stocks that will have opposing flows on the two days, while there are some stocks that will have same way flows from passive trackers.


CPSE / BHARAT22 / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in March

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>E-auction premium on a declining trend: e-auction premium stood at 241% in Q3FY23 over FSA prices (down from 329% in Q2FY23) still at elevated level benefitting Coal India.</li><li>However, Dec’22 monthly e-auction premium has declined to 177% (241% in Nov’22).</li><li>With falling international coal prices we factor in lower e-auction prices in FY24E at Rs 2,575/t (vs. Rs 5,046/t in Q3FY23).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

E-auction premium on a declining trend: e-auction premium stood at 241% in Q3FY23 over FSA prices (down from 329% in Q2FY23) still at elevated level benefitting Coal India.However, Dec’22 monthly e-auction premium has declined to 177% (241% in Nov’22).With falling international coal prices we factor in lower e-auction prices in FY24E at Rs 2,575/t (vs. Rs 5,046/t in Q3FY23).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal India - Decent Q3, E-Auction Premiums Coming off the Peak

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect Tata steel to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (ex-Mumbai prices down 25%/5% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>Tata Steel’s consolidated EBITDA is expected to fall by 66%/10% YoY/QoQ led by lower sales realisations and higher energy costs in Europe.</li><li>SAIL’s revenue is expected to increase by 2% YoY on the lower base of the last year’s sales volume, partly offset by fall in sales realisations YoY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect Tata steel to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (ex-Mumbai prices down 25%/5% YoY/QoQ).Tata Steel’s consolidated EBITDA is expected to fall by 66%/10% YoY/QoQ led by lower sales realisations and higher energy costs in Europe.SAIL’s revenue is expected to increase by 2% YoY on the lower base of the last year’s sales volume, partly offset by fall in sales realisations YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metals and Mining  - Q3FY23 Earnings Preview

<ul><li>Coal India Ltd (CIL) delivered a mixed set of numbers with revenue in line with our estimate while EBITDA/PAT stood below our estimates.</li><li>Revenue grew 28% YoY but declined 15% QoQ.</li><li>This growth stood in line with sales volumes, up 5% YoY and down 13% QoQ, and ASP, up 23% YoY and down 3% QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal India Ltd (CIL) delivered a mixed set of numbers with revenue in line with our estimate while EBITDA/PAT stood below our estimates.Revenue grew 28% YoY but declined 15% QoQ.This growth stood in line with sales volumes, up 5% YoY and down 13% QoQ, and ASP, up 23% YoY and down 3% QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal India - Outperformance Likely to Continue

<ul><li>Q2FY23 marked a cool-off in the key commodity prices including the base metals and the crude oil as against the Q1FY23 period that witnessed elevated commodity prices, which had changed the inflation dynamics significantly.</li><li>To curb the prevailing inflation problem, all central banks including the RBI have adopted a path of aggressive policy tightening.</li><li>The RBI increased the repo rate by 50bps in Sep’22 MPC, marking a total policy rate hike of 190bps to 5.9%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q2FY23 marked a cool-off in the key commodity prices including the base metals and the crude oil as against the Q1FY23 period that witnessed elevated commodity prices, which had changed the inflation dynamics significantly.To curb the prevailing inflation problem, all central banks including the RBI have adopted a path of aggressive policy tightening.The RBI increased the repo rate by 50bps in Sep’22 MPC, marking a total policy rate hike of 190bps to 5.9%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Coal India Limited produces and markets coal and coal products, as well as provides related consulting services.

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Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)

CPSE / BHARAT22 / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in March

There will be capping changes on the Bharat22, CPSE and NIFTYBANK indices in March. There are stocks that have opposite flows while some have same...

Brian Freitas

Coal India - Decent Q3, E-Auction Premiums Coming off the Peak

E-auction premium on a declining trend: e-auction premium stood at 241% in Q3FY23 over FSA prices (down from 329% in Q2FY23) still at elevated...

Axis Direct

Metals and Mining - Q3FY23 Earnings Preview

We expect Tata steel to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (ex-Mumbai prices down 25%...

Axis Direct

Coal India - Outperformance Likely to Continue

Coal India Ltd (CIL) delivered a mixed set of numbers with revenue in line with our estimate while EBITDA/PAT stood below our estimates.

Axis Direct

Consolidate Q2FY23 Result Preview

Q2FY23 marked a cool-off in the key commodity prices including the base metals and the crude oil as against the Q1FY23 period that witnessed...

Axis Direct

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Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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