Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have been covered in recent notes.</li>
<li>The deep junk issue last week from WeWork with its ‘community adjusted EBITDA’ metric as well as the lending scandal in Australia engulfing AMP are classic late credit cycle warning signals.</li>
<li>Real housing prices in Scandinavia and Australia/Canada as well as HK are dangerously above long-term trend and vulnerable to a global…</li>
</ul>


A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have been covered in recent notes.
The deep junk issue last week from WeWork with its ‘community adjusted EBITDA’ metric as well as the lending scandal in Australia engulfing AMP are classic late credit cycle warning signals.
Real housing prices in Scandinavia and Australia/Canada as well as HK are dangerously above long-term trend and vulnerable to a global…


Beware Deep Junk and Liar Loans, as Netflix Reinvents Media Sector…

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Twenty First Century Fox A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>More valuation details regarding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15439" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15439:1">The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16008" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16008:1">Twenty First Century Fox A (FOXA US)</a> deal are coming out.</li>
<li>For-sale assets from FOXA is valued richly at 12.9x EBITDA.</li>
<li>Our calculation indicates merger arbitrage return potential of a sizable 14-23% if investors were to bet on FOXA.</li>
</ul>As we are writing this note, more details regarding valuation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15439" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15439:1">The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)</a> acquiring a large chunk of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16008" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16008:1">Twenty First Century Fox A (FOXA US)</a>'s assets are streaming in on financial media such…


More valuation details regarding The Walt Disney Co (DIS US) and Twenty First Century Fox A (FOXA US) deal are coming out.
For-sale assets from FOXA is valued richly at 12.9x EBITDA.
Our calculation indicates merger arbitrage return potential of a sizable 14-23% if investors were to bet on FOXA.
As we are writing this note, more details regarding valuation of The Walt Disney Co (DIS US) acquiring a large chunk of Twenty First Century Fox A (FOXA US)'s assets are streaming in on financial media such…

Disney-Fox Deal: 14-23% Merger Arbitrage Return Potential for FOXA

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

<ul><li>Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networks</li><li>We have increased the weighting of this theme as an earnings driver for the TV broadcasting sector from 5% four years ago to 45% today.</li><li>Expect profit warnings from Disney related to its TV networks business</li><li>Sell Disney shares</li><li>Underweight the global TV broadcasting sector</li></ul>

Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networksWe have increased the weighting of this theme as an earnings driver for the TV broadcasting sector from 5% four years ago to 45% today.Expect profit warnings from Disney related to its TV networks businessSell Disney sharesUnderweight the global TV broadcasting sector

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

In this review, we look at the evolution of digital music and online piracy, borrowing from our own everyday experience in Thailand (reckoned as the world's top three piracy markets) and the Steven Witt's book How Music Got Free. As free-lancers develop the mp3 platform and made CDs obsolete through peer-to-peer sharing, some pioneers like Napsters became casualty, while others, such as Spotify and Pandora, come into fortune. Those who stick with the old format and try to protect their turf, eg Grammy, have found the task virtually impossible. Yet, others in Thailand, such as Onpa and RS, have evolved into entirely line of business (cosmetics), taking a page of the reinvention thesis we first introduced in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/turnarounds-finding-a-phoenix-in-the-land-of-the-dead" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8194">Turnarounds: Finding A Phoenix In the Land of the Dead</a>.WARNING: This is probably our longest review ever.

In this review, we look at the evolution of digital music and online piracy, borrowing from our own everyday experience in Thailand (reckoned as the world's top three piracy markets) and the Steven Witt's book How Music Got Free. As free-lancers develop the mp3 platform and made CDs obsolete through peer-to-peer sharing, some pioneers like Napsters became casualty, while others, such as Spotify and Pandora, come into fortune. Those who stick with the old format and try to protect their turf, eg Grammy, have found the task virtually impossible. Yet, others in Thailand, such as Onpa and RS, have evolved into entirely line of business (cosmetics), taking a page of the reinvention thesis we first introduced in Turnarounds: Finding A Phoenix In the Land of the Dead.WARNING: This is probably our longest review ever.

Silicon Stories E: The Sound of Digital Music

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Event-Driven

According to Bloomberg, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/921" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:921:1">Sprint Corp (S US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/922" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:922:1">T Mobile US (TMUS US)</a>. are putting the finishing touches on a merger that’s likely to be announced when the wireless carriers report quarterly earnings at the end of October. According to people familiar with the matter, both sides are conducting final due diligence to decide on the exchange ratio that will determine Sprint’s valuation. Setting an exchange ratio for the all-stock deal will be one of the last steps to clinching the merger and hasn’t…

According to Bloomberg, Sprint Corp (S US) and T Mobile US (TMUS US). are putting the finishing touches on a merger that’s likely to be announced when the wireless carriers report quarterly earnings at the end of October. According to people familiar with the matter, both sides are conducting final due diligence to decide on the exchange ratio that will determine Sprint’s valuation. Setting an exchange ratio for the all-stock deal will be one of the last steps to clinching the merger and hasn’t…

Sprint (S US) - Bloomberg Claims Deal Close, Democrats Move to Impede Deal With T-Mobile

United States

Time Warner Inc. is a media and entertainment company. The Company's businesses include cable television networks that provide programming, feature films, television and home video production and distribution, and magazine publishing.

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Time Warner Inc (TWX US)

Beware Deep Junk and Liar Loans, as Netflix Reinvents Media Sector…

A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have...

Sean Maher

Disney-Fox Deal: 14-23% Merger Arbitrage Return Potential for FOXA

More valuation details regarding The Walt Disney Co (DIS US) and Twenty First Century Fox A (FOXA US) deal are coming out. For-sale assets from...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Sell Disney; Underweight TV Broadcasters

Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networks We have increased the weighting of this...

CM Research

Silicon Stories E: The Sound of Digital Music

In this review, we look at the evolution of digital music and online piracy, borrowing from our own everyday experience in Thailand (reckoned as...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Sprint (S US) - Bloomberg Claims Deal Close, Democrats Move to Impede Deal With T-Mobile

According to Bloomberg, Sprint Corp (S US) and T Mobile US (TMUS US). are putting the finishing touches on a merger that’s likely to be announced...

Pelham Smithers Associates

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